Fact: if every state/district's result in November were an 8% uniform swing in Dems' favor from the '16 prez result, Dems would simultaneously gain 44 House seats (almost twice the +23 they need), but *lose* 4 Senate seats. https://t.co/qmCDpXyJmY pic.twitter.com/d00c4PyRkd
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 20, 2018
White women have gone from +9 Trump and +12 R House in 2016 to +2 D House in 2018. https://t.co/fJODgSc3mZ
— Nu Wexler (@wexler) August 20, 2018
Ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, there are now 43 Republican seats without an incumbent on the ballot. That's more than one out of every six Republicans in the House — a record in at least a century. https://t.co/SE5rn3zhoS
— Axios (@axios) August 19, 2018
Here's my simple guide to the midterms as they stand now: where the parties stand, where they hope to make gains, what Democrats need to do to succeed: https://t.co/1IhFdLpsQH
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) August 17, 2018
A broad consensus of indicators point toward Dems performing well in the race for the House. https://t.co/PLHS1a9A3w
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) August 17, 2018
Trump’s effort to hold his base close seems to be working
House seats most likely to flip
New CBS/YouGov House model has a Democratic lead of 6.8 points in the national popular vote translating to a majority of 9 seats. This degree of malapportionment is an affront to democracy. https://t.co/1s606yht4s
— G. Elliott Morris📈🤷♂️ (@gelliottmorris) August 19, 2018
Our 2018 House Forecast: https://t.co/lyNh30TEIw
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) August 20, 2018
I think the tweet below makes sense. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won most of the close swing states which led to his victory.
Ultimately, I think Ds either fall a few seats short of House majority or win 35+ seats. Tons of single digit races that will break overwhelmingly to D or R on Election Day – won’t break 50-50.
— amy walter (@amyewalter) August 19, 2018
Trump's "red wave" could sink GOP https://t.co/MX9xjz6pPU
— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) August 20, 2018
Per @jonathanvswan – GOP strategists are concerned the base doesn’t appreciate the threat of a blue wave, due to their mistrust of polls/media.
From @jpiacenza – only 28% (!) of GOP voters said they would trust a poll indicating Dems would take the house: https://t.co/3gxFOICnNo pic.twitter.com/CwgSk9keBd— Nick Laughlin (@nick_d_laughlin) August 19, 2018
There’s also this report from @cameron_easley – 61% of Republicans feel confident about the midterms. Just 43% of Democrats say the same: https://t.co/F62DwGhoXE pic.twitter.com/lhX3DtJ6cA
— Nick Laughlin (@nick_d_laughlin) August 19, 2018
While Trump talks of a “red wave,” here’s the reality: https://t.co/xZquJO9LPq
— Eli Stokols (@EliStokols) August 21, 2018
How to blow a winnable election, gubernatorial edition. By @databyler. https://t.co/s6yayvEkqd
— Varad Mehta (@varadmehta) August 21, 2018
This is right. In our model, there a ~60% chance that Democrats *either* win 40+ seats *or* fail to take the House. https://t.co/HSP24cE7mK
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 19, 2018
A lot of Dems tend to forget: this year's median competitive Senate seat gave Trump 56% in '16 & is 80% white.
Median competitive House seat: 49% Trump, 74% white.
U.S. as a whole: 46% Trump, 62% white.https://t.co/qmCDpXyJmY
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 20, 2018
Mars vs. Venus: in 2018, the median competitive Senate seat is 7% more pro-Trump, 4x less dense, 5% less college-educated & 7% whiter than the median competitive House seat. https://t.co/qmCDpXyJmY pic.twitter.com/hP4jCQx5b6
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 20, 2018
Reason 12,345 why 2018 is weird:
Trump won #WV03's open seat by *50%* & *lost* Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R)'s #FL26 by 16%. Today, @CookPolitical rates both races the same: Lean R.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 16, 2018
Here's what candidates for House/Senate talked about in their primary ads. Will be very interesting once we update during fall campaigns to see how/if these categories change.https://t.co/mJB6xJw8UH pic.twitter.com/ZMXAzOLEgK
— amy walter (@amyewalter) August 17, 2018
Turnout in this year’s U.S. House primaries is up, especially on the Democratic side https://t.co/4Q4DiNZNqQ pic.twitter.com/OyrDjDFyVN
— Pew Research Fact Tank (@FactTank) August 25, 2018
Sad! 