The House polling we've seen – both public and private – was already pretty terrible for Republicans, but has gotten noticeably worse since Labor Day (with a few exceptions, mostly in substantially Hispanic districts)
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 24, 2018
And here are the rankings. Joe Manchin in W Va. keeps getting more secure in his reelection, while Heidi Heitkamp in ND is the most vulnerable Senate Dem right now. She's a very close second to GOP Sen. Dean Heller in NV for most likely to lose. https://t.co/EoRVyYcaB3
— Amber Phillips (@byamberphillips) September 21, 2018
A FiveThirtyEight Election Update pic.twitter.com/UPNAxnoHQ9
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) September 20, 2018
How the Democrats can flip the house on Election Day: congressional elections in #IA01, #VA07, and #WA08 https://t.co/N9JIytM9s5 pic.twitter.com/90KEFcCxVZ
— GQ Magazine (@GQMagazine) September 20, 2018
Now that the primaries have ended, there are 21 openly LGBT people nominated for Congress and four for governor, all Democrats, according to an advocacy group. https://t.co/UDKUQ11Vex
— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) September 20, 2018
NEWS: Private RNC poll admits "We've lost the messaging battle" on tax cuts, via me + @sahilkapur : https://t.co/uAmGz53XYL
— Joshua Green (@JoshuaGreen) September 20, 2018
This is one of my pet theories about 2018 and I'm glad to see actual data behind it. Some number of voters kept their GOP rep in office to hold the inevitable President Clinton accountable. https://t.co/IK5CoGNGvd
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) September 19, 2018
Democrats are surging back in the Midwestern states where President Trump cut deepest into their old coalition in 2016 https://t.co/hqtIBXVsEd
— POLITICO (@politico) September 21, 2018
Here's context on the Gosar siblings, one of whom has run for office as a Dem. One sister says, "It would be difficult to see my brother as anything but a racist." A brother claims they don't want to speak publicly, but "he just doesn’t appear to be well." https://t.co/cVwznox3NN
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) September 21, 2018
I don't think anyone is projecting that Ds will win the Senate. Rs are definitely still the favorites
But I think the conventional wisdom is lagging on the overall competitiveness of the chamber. My model has it at 60% chance R win. FiveThirtyEight has it at 68%
That's not safe
— David Byler (@databyler) September 21, 2018
Sad! 