2018 election update 10/3/18

GOP Cuts into Dem Lead in House Races, Poll Finds; More Voters Want Democrats to Control Senate https://t.co/exfKMSxaO0 #Midterms2018

— Quinnipiac University Poll (@QuinnipiacPoll) October 2, 2018

The GOP is starting to throw in the towel in some competitive House races: https://t.co/D5ln9dpe9y pic.twitter.com/f7UmIYjTcs

— Slate (@Slate) October 2, 2018

About a month away from midterms, @TheDemocrats have a +23% advantage among women.

Worth noting this is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. #Election2018

👉🏻 https://t.co/FW7kmRCqhc pic.twitter.com/0DdWMlXUOT

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) October 1, 2018

Texas has set a new voter registration record of 15.6 million people ahead of the midterm elections.

Vote ⁦@BetoORourke⁩. #txlege https://t.co/0qUlmY8EeB

— Shannon Watts (@shannonrwatts) October 1, 2018

How thousands of voters in swing state Arizona could be walking into a trap on Election Day https://t.co/b14QFhRcoa

— Salon (@Salon) September 28, 2018

By contrast, there are still a lot of races without star candidates that are *underfunded* for Dems. Dems risk leaving a few of them on the table on Election Night.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 1, 2018

Seems to be some movement in the Florida Senate race… It could be moving towards the fundamentals. If other races do that, watch out… It really puts the Senate in play. https://t.co/WnMDEX0nwj

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 29, 2018

Public opinion surrounding Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination has turned more sharply partisan following last week’s Senate hearing.

What was once seen as a political winner for the GOP now looks like a modest liability in this fall’s midterms https://t.co/j35NKTrCk8 pic.twitter.com/5kK98icdEv

— POLITICO (@politico) October 1, 2018

Politically, America's suburbs are evenly divided overall, but some have a clear Democratic or Republican tilt. https://t.co/IKMg56YTHW pic.twitter.com/JzVbFyOHO4

— Pew Research Fact Tank (@FactTank) October 2, 2018

Nearly a fifth of registered voters in the U.S. – about 37 million – voted in this year's House primaries. That may not sound like a lot, but it was a 56% increase over the 23.7 million who voted in 2014’s House primaries; turnout that year was 13.7%. https://t.co/7x5OE7BnxH pic.twitter.com/Z8UT2WRdhj

— Pew Research Fact Tank (@FactTank) October 3, 2018

There's about a 3% chance that New Jersey is the decisive state in the race for Senate control. That's not a lot. But that's 3% when, from Democrats' perspective, it should be 0% instead. https://t.co/9SXHdwh5aB

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 3, 2018

Hi, I'm here with a piece sure to freak out some Democrats: Bob Menendez could definitely lose that slam dunk senate seat in New Jersey https://t.co/BvCjCgVM6b

— Clare Malone (@ClareMalone) October 3, 2018

There's a pretty decent amount of evidence at this point that both
A) Kavanugh's popularity has dropped
B) The GOP has gained
since the Kavanaugh hearing.
Obviously, doesn't matter if it doesn't last. But it's interesting. https://t.co/H9V5MIpiJb

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 3, 2018

After I gave a talk last week, a woman told me that she'd like to participate in polls, but didn't know how to tell incoming calls from pollsters from incoming scam calls. Unfortunately, there isn't a clear way. Spam is killing telephone polls. https://t.co/Os9JjPXZxO

— Dan Cassino (@DanCassino) October 3, 2018

Certain to vote in '18, based on late-Sept. Gallup poll:
65+ 82%
50-64 69%
30-49 55%
18-29 26% <—– 🚨https://t.co/KDFFg2xhI8

— Justin Levitt (@_justinlevitt_) October 3, 2018

This district in West Virginia voted overwhelmingly for President Trump in the 2016 election. But now, a Democrat named Richard Ojeda, who also voted for Trump, is gaining ground in the deeply conservative area https://t.co/4XoBTax0aZ pic.twitter.com/pOn9CHcrp7

— CNN (@CNN) October 3, 2018

House Ratings alert: 7 more GOP seats move towards Dems at @CookPolitical. Biggest changes:#FL26: Curbelo (R) – Lean R to Toss Up#KS03: Yoder (R) – Toss Up to Lean D#MI11: OPEN (R) – Toss Up to Lean D#NY24: Katko (R) – Likely R to Lean R#UT04: Love (R) – Lean R to Toss Up

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 3, 2018

Lindsey Graham: “The defining issue in 2018″ for the Republican Party is Judge Brett Kavanaugh https://t.co/iYsb81VVxh

— Salon (@Salon) October 3, 2018

Much welcomed news for Republicans here. https://t.co/UVkFJ2xv7V

— Josh Dawsey (@jdawsey1) October 3, 2018

There's still plenty of time for conditions to change, but right now the likeliest outcome appears to be a Democratic gain of between 25 and 40 seats (Democrats need +23 for House control).

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 3, 2018