2018 elections update – 10/15/18

Democrats have a 53-42 percent edge in the generic ballot for the House. But inside the 66 districts that are tossups, or only leaning, that lead evaporates into a 46-47 D v. R race. https://t.co/B2VelNrN5Z

— Rick Klein (@rickklein) October 15, 2018

What Democrats in Congress will do if they're in power after the midterms https://t.co/golOzN0iiC pic.twitter.com/9uCAI9y8NH

— CNN (@CNN) October 15, 2018

PEW RESEARCH: Trump approval rating – heading into midterms –

Approve 38
Disapprove 61

net approval -23

(2nd biggest gap since taking office)https://t.co/qczEpIg7mq

— Amy Siskind (@Amy_Siskind) October 15, 2018

This trend is clearer now. Generic ballot polls conducted since Kavanaugh was confirmed have not been good for Republicans. All a bit weird because they had a good week of Senate polls and an OK-ish week of House district polls. pic.twitter.com/VWALt1YriO

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 14, 2018

We're now at another point of near-symmetry. There's roughly a:
—1 in 5 chance that Democrats win both Senate and House
—3 in 5 chance that the GOP keeps the Senate but Democrats win the House
—1 in 5 chance that the GOP keeps both chambers https://t.co/yS4hV75b61

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2018

In other news, the award for least plausible internal poll of the election cycle goes to … Mark Callahan, the Republican candidate in OR-5, who released a poll showing himself up 23 points (!) in a race that Cook/Sabato/Gonzales all rate as "Safe D". https://t.co/n1DjJYZkUj pic.twitter.com/hUqGbRS9UH

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2018

As a heads up, 3Q fundraising numbers are going to start to populate our model over the next few days. In a few races, the numbers are already in. "Fundamentals" forecasts may change slightly as a result. https://t.co/VPH1CMw8Ok

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2018

There's no clear relationship between midterm losses and what happens in the next presidential election

Sometimes it's 2006 and there are two rough elections in a row
Sometimes it's 2010 and a win comes before a loss
The pattern just isn't strong https://t.co/7dzH6heerv pic.twitter.com/IVwUSew2ix

— David Byler (@databyler) October 15, 2018

A group led by Steve Bannon is spending $3 million on digital ads ahead of the midterm elections https://t.co/0TCGs7x2E0 pic.twitter.com/3mEoUcCMDa

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) October 15, 2018

Add in the gubernatorial race and a Senate contest—incumbent Democrats are heavily favored in both—and the state stands as an epicenter of these midterms https://t.co/oO9krxHBf9 pic.twitter.com/2aNmhgEPS8

— POLITICO (@politico) October 15, 2018

With the November midterm elections fast approaching, it is becoming increasingly clear that both Washington and statehouses around the country could be in for major changes.

Take a look at 7 key races that tell the story of the 2018 midterms: https://t.co/aUkfYWJhvh pic.twitter.com/FPx7huJMyw

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) October 15, 2018

I talked to progressive groups in Tennessee after Senate candidate Phil Bredesen said he supported Kavanaugh for SCOTUS, and they are…not happy: https://t.co/SnyzR5yIwY

— Becca (@kbeccaandrews) October 15, 2018

Democrats see growing lead in House race even as Trump approval rating rises. https://t.co/7IML2CMOQz pic.twitter.com/kRoqLNCqSW

— Slate (@Slate) October 15, 2018

Wow…#CA48 @DanaRohrabacher raised only $395K in Q3 and now has $506K COH (with $167K in debt)

— Aaron Booth (@ActorAaronBooth) October 15, 2018

The Republicans had managed to keep the Louie Gohmerts in the lower house of Congress. No more. https://t.co/qvFtujU2xG

— Esquire (@esquire) October 15, 2018

Good news for the GOP: Many of the most pro-Democrat voters are least certain to vote (@pbump) https://t.co/cOqz7vq4kY

— OpinionToday.com (@OpinionToday) October 15, 2018

When we polled this district in September, we found the Democratic candidate, Joe Radinovich, up by one point. Now, we have the Republican, Pete Stauber, up by 15. What happened? https://t.co/IOQTx1vJa0

— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) October 15, 2018