His big accomplishment is the tax bill and the public understands that it mostly benefits rich people. He appointed conservative Supreme Court justices but Kavanaugh was unpopular. Thus, he’s going back to the lies and bigotry that got him elected but he’s even worse now than in 2016. He realizes the Republicans will go along with whatever he says no matter how wrong it is.
Trump initially tried a bit to campaign on a "vote Republican to preserve all my important accomplishments" midterms platform. But as voting day has gotten closer, he has turned hard toward dishonest fearmongering.
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 22, 2018
How Dems get the Senate is pretty clear… Win everything that is close then pick off TX (i'm doubtful), TN (???), get a Heitkamp surge (???), or hope for something funky in MS-Special.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 21, 2018
The WSJ/NBC poll, to me, clarifies there is Kavanaugh effect of sorts, & it has been net positive for Republicans. Did it juice Democrats? Yes. But they didn’t need any more enthusiasm – Rs did, & it could make difference in competitive lean R House seats, never mind Senate.
— David M. Drucker (@DavidMDrucker) October 21, 2018
This is a unique election in which there will be big practical consequences if polls are off by even a relatively modest amount in *either* direction. Although a House-Senate split is the most likely outcome, there's still a 35-40% chance that one party wins both chambers.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 22, 2018
Whoa. This is the line for early voting in #Houston. Literally people camped out last night so they could be among the first to vote. “This is one of the most important elections of our lifetimes,” Cody Pogue tells me pic.twitter.com/swtTEmcjcZ
— Jeremy Wallace (@JeremySWallace) October 22, 2018
Wanna know how fast the ATL suburbs are changing? Per TargetSmart numbers I have, Nathan Deal won GA-07 by like 24.5 points in 2014. Stacey Abrams is up 1 in GA-07 in this poll. https://t.co/F4ne7LwDKR
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 22, 2018
Democrats have a generic ballot lead of 8.5 or 9 points.
Not sure if people realize how large that is. A bit larger than the 1994 and 2010 waves, when the GOP won the popular vote by ~7 points each time. Similar to 2006, when Dems won by 8 but underperformed in swing districts.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 22, 2018
Trump privately ready to blame Ryan and McConnell if Republicans lose midterms: report https://t.co/3Vhrq5uaCD pic.twitter.com/l7kSzDoRsO
— The Hill (@thehill) October 22, 2018
California has become the blue face of the opposition to President Trump — and Republican candidates are jumping on that in places like Nevada, Texas and Colorado https://t.co/0cvBtgjP2D
— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) October 22, 2018
new Quinnipiac FL Senate poll affirms CNN poll yesterday: Nelson (D) leads Scott (R) by six points
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) October 22, 2018
"There is a growing sense that Democrats' expected takeover of the House isn’t looking so likely any more — or at least that the 'blue wave' won’t be as large as it appeared." https://t.co/vfc0BCtsX7
— Eugene Scott (@Eugene_Scott) October 22, 2018
2016 seemed to kill off some of the probabilistic models, but there are a few in addition to ours. In the Senate they show very similar numbers:
DEM CHANCES TO WIN SENATE:
Swing Seat / @davidbyler: 20%
538 Lite / Classic / Deluxe: 21% / 22% / 21%
Optimus / @DecisionDeskHQ: 14%— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 22, 2018
POTUS may want to make 2017 a referendum on ‘open borders’ but since 9/1, GOP candidates for House and Senate have run more anti-Pelosi ads and more healthcare-related ads than immigration ads https://t.co/P1lIPUAFvK
— amy walter (@amyewalter) October 19, 2018
It is fair to conclude that the GOP has made voter suppression a central part of their election strategy for 2018. We can assume this will continue in the future.
— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) October 21, 2018
Democrats dominated small-donor fundraising and matched the Republican take among big Super PACs, but the GOP and its allies went into the last month of the election with more money in the bank. https://t.co/So2GfE9Jhh
— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) October 22, 2018
Fascinating contrasts in the @HoustonChron coverage today — long lines to vote in suburban areas, long lines to see Trump/Cruz downtown. https://t.co/RlOqwZixu7
— David Fahrenthold (@Fahrenthold) October 22, 2018
Trump approval here (65%) among non-col whites roughly = his vote share w/them per '16 exit polls. But his college white approval (38%) is 10 points lower than his vote. That gap-reflected in metro vs non-metro House seats-underlines stakes for Ds in maxing out suburban chances. https://t.co/rIS3JxJnRE
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) October 22, 2018
With voters dismissing the meager benefits the tax cut, and the deficit ballooning, Republicans can’t claim ownership of an economic boom that’s been years in the making. So instead they’re embracing Trump’s tactic: fear-mongering. https://t.co/rp70pAtcDC pic.twitter.com/11BvALFcr5
— The New Republic (@newrepublic) October 22, 2018
Right now it looks like Democrats will probably take the House, and Republicans will likely keep control of the Senate. Catch up with our latest midterm predictions: https://t.co/20Jo0iPHhW
— POLITICO (@politico) October 21, 2018
New NBC/WSJ poll:
Dems hold 9 point lead among likely voters in battle for the House, 50-41.
Among independents: 41-27
Among women: 57-32 (!)
Among college educated white women: 61-28 (!!)https://t.co/YOI7v3dpef
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) October 21, 2018
Sad! 