Results since election night have trended to increasing the Democratic win column. It’s great to see how many women and minorities won! The turnout was very high.
On top of that, there are a lot of late ballots in California that are probably going to be really good for Democrats. Maine ranked choice promises to be decent for Democrats. Very easy to imagine ending at D+38/39 in the House at this point
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 10, 2018
Shows how effective the GOP gerrymandering is because they won more seats in 2010 while receiving 7 million fewer votes. https://t.co/0ESDzkoOsq
— Vito Stellino (@vitostellino) November 10, 2018
Here's one last way to look at it.
In the first two years with Obama as party leader, Republicans gained a net of +43 House seats (-21 2008, +1 special elections, +63 2010)
In the first two years with Trump, Dems are on pace for +45 (+6 2016, +1 special elections, +38 2018).
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 10, 2018
Here’s our current characterization of the uncalled Congressional races.
Solid D (>=95%): CA-48, CA-49, NM-2
Likely D (~85%): CA-10, NJ-3, NY-22, UT-4
Lean D (~65%): CA-39, CA-45, ME-2, AZ-Sen
Tossup (~50%):
Lean R: FL-Sen
Likely R: GA-7, NY-27, TX-23, MS-Sen (runoff)
Solid R:— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 10, 2018
For comparison, the House popular vote in things that are widely considered to be wave elections:
2010: R +6.8
2006: D +8.0
1994: R +7.1
So if we wind up at ~D +7.5 or so, we'll be pretty much exactly in line with those years. https://t.co/BMil3Uuw8j— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 10, 2018
One of best stories of 2018: Native American Democrat Ruth Anna Buffalo defeated GOP state rep who sponsored voter ID law designed to disenfranchise Native Americans https://t.co/57xItiAqgc via @fawfulfan
— Ari Berman (@AriBerman) November 10, 2018
Having a competitive statewide election is worth about 4-5 points in turnout. pic.twitter.com/3AI8YiLxvm
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 10, 2018
“Why are these people taking so long to count votes??” you ask, implying something nefarious.
Answer: they always take this long to count, you just never GAF b/c it wasn’t a close election.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 9, 2018
These 5 charts explain who voted how in the 2018 midterm election (@b_schaffner) details: https://t.co/bcoIQsAi4J pic.twitter.com/rOrIbTnB8u
— OpinionToday.com (@OpinionToday) November 10, 2018
Voter turnout update: now up to an estimated 115.2 million people voted for a turnout rate of 48.9%. If this holds, 2018 will beat 1966's 48.7% and will be the highest midterm turnout rate since 1914's 50.4%
— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 10, 2018
On Tuesday, w/ a few exceptions, America didn't hold elections between two candidates so much as a census of how many Ds & Rs live in given areas.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 10, 2018
The irony: Dem arch-nemeses #CA22 Rep. Devin Nunes (R) & #CA50 Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) will easily survive, while many of the Trump-skeptic House Rs likeliest to collaborate w/ Dems just got kicked out.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 10, 2018
The story developing as the full picture of Tuesday's results comes into focus is significantly more favorable to Dems than the narrative that emerged on Election Night.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 10, 2018
Overlooked: at the moment, Republicans are on track to lose nearly half of their 23 women in the House; there could be just 13 in the next Congress.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 10, 2018
Staggering: if every uncalled race breaks as I expect, House Dems' class of 61 freshmen would include *35* women & just 19 white men. By contrast, Republicans' class of 31 would include 29 white men & just *one* woman.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 10, 2018
Sad! 