11/28/18 Update
Projection: T.J. Cox (D) has defeated Rep. David Valadao (R) in #CA21, an upset that brings Dems to a *40 seat* gain overall.
Final House breakdown: 235D, 200R.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 28, 2018
Cox declares victory. He lost the top-two primary 62-37, which is why everyone scurried away from the race. Let's not presume the primary=the general in California anymore https://t.co/Qsab18vdns
— David Dayen (@ddayen) November 28, 2018
House Democrats may wind up with a 40 member pickup. Two seats haven’t been called. Mississippi Senate runoff is today.
It's far from final. Will go higher. https://t.co/gukY1YywYh
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 27, 2018
Democrats won the House with the largest margin of victory in history for either party, according to NBC News election data. https://t.co/GqBtu4lAzT
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 26, 2018
Democrats won House popular vote by largest midterm margin since Watergate, @NBCNews data shows. https://t.co/XpGvImsydp
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) November 23, 2018
A big problem with this piece is that moderate/conservative Democrats also performed much worse in rural areas as compared with 2012. Check out Joe Manchin in 2012 vs 2018, for example.https://t.co/UWt4Y8WQli pic.twitter.com/i3PCZBt5Ov
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 25, 2018
Here's another example of this point. Gillum, who favored abolishing ICE and Medicare-For-All, got about the same number of votes, in the same areas as Bill Nelson, a more establishment Democrat who backed neither of those ideas. https://t.co/BjmDNp0nY3 https://t.co/Shp5ru1LgY
— Perry Bacon Jr. (@perrybaconjr) November 25, 2018
coulda made it from ‘06, would been even more unsightly for Ds
2 points: first, no implication that the cause of the worsening margins was bc of progressive candidates. that’s why i made the pt about “more conventional candidates” suffering the same probhttps://t.co/oMGgCkPZnq
— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) November 25, 2018
Before the election, 58% of the population had a GOP governor. After the election, it's 47%.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 27, 2018
A simple regression controlling for incumbency and the pvi (75% 2016 and 25% 2012) based on other 2018 Senate results suggests Hyde-Smith should win by 7 tonight. Let's see where we end up.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 27, 2018
Sad! 