Excellent stuff on why the Republicans have the Senate advantage and what they do with it

One other point of context about the Senate:

The battle for the Senate has often been quite *competitive* in recent elections, which might seem to contradict the notion that there's a built-in GOP advantage. But that's not necessarily how these things work. https://t.co/rxBXQvq7kY

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 20, 2020

We ran the numbers, and the Senate is currently around *6 to 7 points* (!) more Republican than the country as a whole, based on the position of the median states relative to the national average. That means Dems need ~landslide margins to win the Senate. https://t.co/0OejJ56Lia

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 20, 2020

i.e. given the choice between

a) Pursue a moderate agenda and win the Senate 80-90% because of the GOP's built-in advantage.

-or-

b) Pursue a very conservative agenda, which is unpopular, but still win the Senate ~60% of the time because of the GOP's advantage

They choose b)

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 20, 2020

And white voters are represented as though they're 68% of the country in the Senate, when they're actually 60%. It's basically as if you'd turned the clock back 20 years. pic.twitter.com/7nvWwhh4hT

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 20, 2020

PS the Senate skew toward Republicans (6-7 points) is both bigger and more permanent than the Electoral College one (2-3 points) or the one in the House (a bit tricky to measure but probably amounts to 2-4 points in practice right now and possibly less after 2020 redistricting).

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 20, 2020