563 days until the election: who led at this point in the past

563 DAYS TO GO:
2008 Dem: Clinton led by 9.7 points.
2008 GOP: Giuliani led by 12.2 points.
2012 GOP: Romney led by 7.4 points.
2016 Dem: Clinton led by 56.6 points.
2016 GOP: Bush led by 1.8 points.https://t.co/OLynKLRaJh
— Who led? (@LedPast) April 20, 2019

Flipping state legislatures

My piece this morning on Future Now, the most ambitious of the Democratic groups that started post-2016 to flip state legislatures: https://t.co/hzb7FG2Yko
— Russell Berman (@russellberman) April 17, 2019

Trump only cares about his base

He has no interest in being president of the entire country. His election strategy is focused on turning out his base instead of increasing his appeal. A recent poll showed that the Barr letter changed nothing.

"The old-fashioned idea that a president, once reaching office, should at least pretend to be the leader of all the people these days seems so, well, old-fashioned. Mr. Trump does not bother with the pretense." — @peterbakernyt on Trump's base obsession https://t.co/mfEKbBK1xY
— Philip Rucker (@PhilipRucker) April 17, 2019

Obama regularly told people that he felt obligated to consider the interests and needs of all Americans, even those who didn’t vote for him. https://t.co/8gxKFkyi6I
— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) April 17, 2019

"It’s often observed that Trump is a minority president. But it’s worse: Deliberately functioning as a minority president is itself the long term survival strategy." https://t.co/MVSmURmxnl
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) April 17, 2019

If you were one of those people who thought that the Barr memo had Changed Everything for Trump, congrats and I want to play poker with you. https://t.co/euzAVKcsmU
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) April 17, 2019

Democratic candidates donations to charity

This is not impressive. They should do more. My own donations are around Warren’s percentage and I make much less than these folks.

Here's how much of their income 2020 Dems gave to charity in 2017:

Beto – 0.31% (no, that's not a typo)
Harris – 1.4%
Gillibrand – 1.7%
Klobuchar – 1.9%
Sanders – 3.4%
Inslee – 4%
Warren – 5.5%

Why does it not surprise me that Warren leads the pack? https://t.co/UVw0QEEqEU
— Jordan Weissmann (@JHWeissmann) April 16, 2019

Up your charity game, Beto! https://t.co/QcEBOEu6VT
— Slate (@Slate) April 16, 2019

Beto O’Rourke said his campaign is working to find evidence of “thousands of dollars” in charitable donations not reflected in his tax returns https://t.co/5UEI9EF64R
— POLITICO (@politico) April 17, 2019

Trump campaign makes Barr’s spying statement worse

Barr said he thought that the Trump campaign had been spied on. He provided no basis for his statement. Now the Trump campaign has ratcheted it up a notch by calling it “unlawful spying”. They’re lying about a lie and making it worse. Sad!

Trump campaign email doctors a quote from Barr. He said "spying did occur," not that "unlawful spying did occur." https://t.co/OP4Lwo4n5i pic.twitter.com/Z0sA3pYH0o
— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan) April 13, 2019

Trump campaign fundraising by lying about what Barr said. pic.twitter.com/RXM93gzy16
— Philip Bump (@pbump) April 12, 2019

Trump campaign email: “Just this week, Attorney General William Barr said what the President has thought all along, he believes ‘unlawful spying did occur’ against Donald J. Trump's presidential campaign…” pic.twitter.com/5jpyfZhErv
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) April 13, 2019

“Spying” is not a legal word; it’s a loaded political word, signaling conspiracy theorists. Of course Barr knows this (or else he’s clueless about law enforcement). Yet He chose to use it, repeatedly. It was a political sop to Trump and a sure thing the campaign would exploit it. https://t.co/PSpJ1WpgKQ
— Elie Honig (@eliehonig) April 13, 2019

AG Barr said “I believe spying did occur.”

The word “unlawful” was not part of that quote.

But the sentence in the email is constructed in such a way that the campaign could be referring to what Trump thinks.

So misleading it seems purposefully deceptive.
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) April 13, 2019

AG Barr admitted he had no evidence to support his claim that spying on the Trump campaign “did occur.”

AG Barr must retract his statement immediately or produce specific evidence to back it up.

Perpetuating conspiracy theories is beneath the office of the Attorney General.
— Chuck Schumer (@SenSchumer) April 10, 2019

Trump posts doctored video

This reminds me of the time he or his staff posted the altered video of Jim Acosta. It’s disgraceful. They can’t stick to the truth.

Of course, Trump is in no position to talk about how anyone treats women.

President Trump posts doctored video mocking Joe Biden's controversial behavior toward women https://t.co/Tw9cskaiiE
— TIME (@TIME) April 4, 2019

I don’t know how to reason with people who think like this

Many Republicans won’t accept basic facts about Russian interference and would even let Trump postpone the next election. I think it’s plausible he would try to do this if it appears he would lose. He’ll claim that it’s rigged and that there would be massive voter fraud.

Half of Republicans say they would support postponing the 2020 election if Trump proposed it.

This is an old survey but the Trump cult seems to be even more devoted to him now.

A majority of Republicans:
– think Russia didn't interfere with the election
– believe Trump's claim the Mueller exonerated him over Mueller's claim that he didn't https://t.co/IJ3hd6jstG
— Philip Bump (@pbump) April 2, 2019