The Orioles have had a great season so far. I think they will make the playoffs but I don’t think they will go far unless they trade for a top starting pitcher. Most teams they could play will have a number one starter better than what the Orioles have. The Orioles have more good minor league prospects than they can use so they have plenty of guys to trade.
The Orioles have won more games than expected based on run differential. Their record is 56-35. Per Baseball Reference, based on their run differential (+52), their record should be 51-40. The teams ahead of them in the American League have much better run differentials. Tampa Bay is +156 and Texas is +158. The Orioles have exceeded their projected wins because of the back end of the bullpen. At the beginning of the season, FanDuel only projected them to win 76.5 games – I took the over and it looks like I will win some money. Per the Baltimore Sun, FanGraphs said the Orioles were projected to finish 35-38 after the All-Star break because they have the toughest expected schedule in baseball.
Starting pitching and middle relief are the biggest concerns. I am worried that their young starters (Wells, Bradish, Kremer) haven’t thrown that many innings before and may wear out or have to be restricted.
I am concerned that the Orioles may not sign their young stars to long-term contracts and plead that they are in a small market. The team is very profitable and should sign players to long deals.
Still, this has been a fine season and the future is very bright.
from Roch Kubatko on MASN 7/17: “They’ve gone 31-23 against teams with winning records for the third-best winning percentage in the majors at .574.”
The Baltimore Sun’s take:
Sad! 