Run differential is the number of runs a baseball team has scored minus the amount given up. I think it’s a great indicator of how good a team is, especially now since we’re over 2/3 through the season
The Orioles have had a great season but their run differential would, using the pythagorean winning percentage formula, lead to a 64-52 record, instead of their actual record of 71-46. See below for more on the pythagorean winning percentage.
Their run differntial is inflated by three huge wins: 15-2, 14-1, and 13-3. To be fair, they have had a few big losses, too.
They have the best record in the American League but are fourth in run differential, only one ahead of Seattle who they are playing this weekend. They are way behind the leaders. Texas’s is 176 and Tampa Bay’s is 145. Baltimore’s is only 62. They will almost certainly make the playoffs and have a good shot of winning the division. I’m just skeptical about how far they can go in the playoffs. I am not complaining. This has been a wonderful season to watch.
The Orioles had more wins than expected in 2022 also. They went 83-79 but were expected to go 79-83 based on run differential. They had a winning record even though they were outscored.
It’s hard to know how they are doing this but they have won a lot of close games due to their closer and top set up pitcher.
From Baseball Reference:
What is pythagorean winning percentage?
Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team’s winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by
(Runs Scored)^1.83
(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83
The traditional formula uses an exponent of two, but this has proven to be a little more accurate.
Sad! 