The polls are trending in the wrong direction for the GOP as the midterms draw near. But if you are a poll skeptic, there are other pieces of hard evidence that suggest trouble on the horizon. My latest column -> https://t.co/2AN7HymPdw
— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) September 5, 2018
Charting one metric showing a grim 2018 for the GOP. https://t.co/472rfFlOky
— Philip Bump (@pbump) September 6, 2018
Similar sobering numbers for the GOP in our new @USATODAY @Suffolk_U Poll this morning: 11-point disadvantage on ballot. By 58%-34%, voters want a Congress that stands up to Trump, not cooperates with him. https://t.co/mHK1LpfN3N https://t.co/QfvIeyKSVZ
— Susan Page (@SusanPage) September 4, 2018
New midterm election polls have bad news for Trump and the GOP https://t.co/gRKbnJeJe3
— Salon (@Salon) September 4, 2018
One tweet by @Redistrict prompted me to dive deep on the demographics of the House — and how they're changing. https://t.co/FGwEhAQzPj
— Philip Bump (@pbump) September 5, 2018
The backdrop is that in a state Trump won by 19, the poll puts his net approval now at only +2. He's -6 among college + whites….even in Indiana & Donnelly leads among them, while staying w/in range among non-college whites. The white-collar recoil from Trump isn't just coastal https://t.co/eNkV6fqCoN
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) September 5, 2018
Tonight, we will launch the first of nearly 100 live NYT Upshot/Siena polls of the fight for Congress.
For the first time, we'll publish the results live in real time, respondent by respondent.
We start this evening in CA-48, KY-6, IL-6, MN-8, IL-12https://t.co/R4EbBmvGM9— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 6, 2018
GEORGIA
Governor:
Brian Kemp (R) 45%
Stacey Abrams (D) 45%
Ted Metz (L) 2%
(Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV Poll, LV, 8/26 – 9/4/18)— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 6, 2018
Trump's approval drops looks real to me… Got a number of high quality polls that have Trump's approval rating in the 30s… If that is correct and holds, we may be looking at more like a 40+ seat gain for the Dems come November… https://t.co/RqrrPAGVsa
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 5, 2018
Underrated: How rarely incumbents lose when their party is having a good year overall.
In our Senate database, there are 5 years I'd consider wave elections (94, 2010 and 14 for R's; 2006 and 08 for D's). How did incumbents from the waving parties do? Undefeated. 54 for 54.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 7, 2018
Sad! 