GOP polls for 2024 primaries

Marquette Poll: Net Favorability Ratings among Republicans

Trump: +46%
DeSantis: +36%
Haley: +18%
T. Scott: +15%
Elder: +13%
Ramaswamy: +8%
Pence: +5%

Sununu: -6%
Hutchinson: -11%
Christie: -22%

Marquette (A/B) | 05/18-22 | RVshttps://t.co/sChBtB0zo5 pic.twitter.com/0gWfatfmZq
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 29, 2023

2024 GOP Primary Polling Averages@FiveThirtyEight
• Trump — 53.9% (+33.5)
• DeSantis — 20.4%
.@RacetotheWH
• Trump — 53.6% (+32.4)
• DeSantis — 21.2%
.
RCP:
• Trump — 53.2% (+30.8)
• DeSantis — 22.4% pic.twitter.com/gNCKmCegPC
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 28, 2023

2024 National Republican Primary, RCP Average:

Trump 53.2% (+30.8)
DeSantis 22.4%
Haley 4.4%
Pence 3.8%
Ramaswamy 2.6%
T. Scott 1.6%
Elder 0.5%
Hutchinson 0.4% pic.twitter.com/mquucr8qzn
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 28, 2023

2024 National Republican Primary, @FiveThirtyEight Average:

Trump 53.9% (+33.5)
DeSantis 20.4%
Pence 5.3%
Haley 4.3%
Ramaswamy 3.8%
T. Scott 1.6%
Hutchinson 0.7% pic.twitter.com/c7BZWT22xR
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 28, 2023

2024 National Republican Primary:

Trump 49% (+30)
DeSantis 19%
Pence 9%
Ramaswamy 8%
Haley 5%
T. Scott 2%
Christie 1%
Elder 1%
Youngkin 0%
Perry 0%
Sununu 0%
Hurd 0%
Hutchinson 0%
Suarez 0%
Burgum 0%
.
Head-2-Head:
Trump 59% (+25)
DeSantis 34%

.@EchelonInsights, 390 LV, 5/22-25…
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 28, 2023

2024 National Republican Primary (Shift since 4/19):

Trump 58% (+3)
DeSantis 16% (-4)
Ramaswamy 4% (+2)
Pence 4% (-3)
Haley 4%
Cruz 3% (+2)
T. Scott 1%
Rubio 1%
Hutchinson 1% (+1)

.@Harvard–@HarrisPoll, RV, 5/17-18 https://t.co/xyQudKP5yZ
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 19, 2023

The CBS poll shows how extreme Republicans are

This is even worse than I could have imagined.

Findings from a new CBS poll: "To the extent the Republican primary is a contest at all right now, it looks like it's one between Donald Trump and a sentiment one might call 'Trump fatigue.' And Trump is winning that matchup easily." https://t.co/TS4kvWYy0s
— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) May 2, 2023

Trump looks like a former president who left office popular with his party.

Top reasons GOP primary voters are backing him: his performance as president & he fights for people them.

There are two-thirds who say one reason is to show support during his legal fights. pic.twitter.com/YPdkODQhtD
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) May 1, 2023

https://t.co/YtpTkRDrlY pic.twitter.com/BJ1OYVVVf1
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 2, 2023

More Republicans (24%) prefer a candidate who supports the people who entered the Capitol on Jan. 6 than one who criticizes them (15%).

6 in 10 prefer one who doesn't comment on Jan. 6.https://t.co/00UDigwJUa pic.twitter.com/Y8rWR4LfiM
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) May 2, 2023

Interesting (if depressing) results in new CBS poll.

Q 10: In the 2024 R presidential primaries, would you prefer to vote for a candidate who

…says Trump won the 2020 election? 61% yes, 39% no.

…supports U.S. aid to Ukraine? 42% yes, 58% no. https://t.co/JY7yFCWrGs
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) May 2, 2023

Right-wing positions on abortion are unpopular

That doesn’t stop state legislatures and Republican judges from taking extremist actions.

I think the Supreme Court will ultimately uphold the terrible ban on Mifepristone (the abortion pill) that was done by a Trump judge. The right-wing judges don’t care if their decisions are unpopular. They have lifetime jobs.

Look at it politically. If they allow the usage of the pill to continue, I’ll still be mad at them for overturning Roe v. Wade. Their Trump cult voters who supported the end of abortion will be mad at them for this decision. So, they would not please anyone.

I and millions of others are already furious about overturning Roe. Banning the pill can’t make me much angrier than I am already

More than half of Americans — 57% — believe the Supreme Court is politically motivated when it comes to banning abortion in the United States, including 77% of Democrats, 40% of Republicans, and 54% of independents. (@Ipsosus) More: https://t.co/HwWpvHJ9nu pic.twitter.com/xGGrIjDOBF
— Opinion Today (@OpinionToday) April 14, 2023

Should medication abortion should be legal/illegal in your state:

Net legal %

+31 adults

+28 men
+33 women

+65 Dem/lean
-1 Rep/lean

+54 18-29
+31 30-49
+19 50-64
+24 65+

+20 Catholic
+7 Protestant
-27 White Evangelical

– @pewresearch
— John Della Volpe (follow me on substack) (@dellavolpe) April 13, 2023

Nearly every major poll on the abortion pill suggests support is a 70-25 issuehttps://t.co/Gx7PEVFgEU pic.twitter.com/wjRgtRkX2O
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) April 10, 2023

Nearly two-thirds of Americans support legal abortion. The same is true among religious Americans: majorities of religious Americans support legal abortion.

The outliers are white evangelicals, Jehovah’s Witnesses, LDS and Hispanic Protestants.@RNS https://t.co/8rg9dLUycE
— PRRI (@PRRIpoll) April 7, 2023

PEW POLL: “By more than two-to-one, Americans say medication abortion should be legal in their state”https://t.co/x0ZJDDkQZv
— The Tennessee Holler (@TheTNHoller) April 11, 2023

GOP and their courts have unpopular positions on abortion pills

By more than 2 to 1, Americans say medication abortion should be legal in their state: 71% of women under 30 say this, while just 12% say it should be illegal. (@HSHartig @pewresearch) Details: https://t.co/jgkkATlRhV pic.twitter.com/qeEnnZnZAl
— Opinion Today (@OpinionToday) April 11, 2023

Abortion medication has overwhelming support, but one interesting dynamic is that young MEN are more supportive than women over 30. Gen Z is very, very, very progressive pic.twitter.com/IFx8gztnhV
— Will Stancil (@whstancil) April 11, 2023

also this:

Iowa Poll: Over 60% support legal abortion as state Supreme Court considers restrictions. (@katie_akin Des Moines Register) https://t.co/zIDrKV5kzS
— Opinion Today (@OpinionToday) March 28, 2023

Polls on the Trump indictment

Donald Trump is sorely mistaken. A majority of Americans think the criminal investigations into his behavior are fair, poll shows. (via The ReidOut Blog) https://t.co/TWmyfS6AZt
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) March 31, 2023

From our new poll: "Sixty percent of Americans approve of the indictment of former President Donald Trump…About three-quarters of Americans say politics played at least some role in the decision to indict Trump." https://t.co/kWg27WFhKw
— Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) April 3, 2023

As always, looking at the Independent voter numbers in this new @CNN poll:

62% of independents approve of Trump’s indictment.

Only 8% of independents think he did nothing wrong.

Just 26% of independent voters approve of Trump overall. https://t.co/xTFY5qHOai
— John Avlon (@JohnAvlon) April 3, 2023

60% of Americans approve of Trump's indictment, a CNN poll found. Support fell along party lines:

—94% of Democrats approve of the decision to indict

—79% of Republicans disapprove

—62% of independents approve
https://t.co/iSKp8adniL
— Axios (@axios) April 3, 2023

A plurality of Americans think Donald Trump should have been charged by a Manhattan grand jury with a history-making indictment that includes around two dozen counts, including felonies. https://t.co/XSO0mKKpvc
— Eugene Scott (@Eugene_Scott) April 3, 2023

2024 general election polls

Scary. And Quinnipiac is reputable. Results like this have been consistent.

Half the US wants fascism, or is okay with it. https://t.co/fttXPZ3ncr
— Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) March 29, 2023

New Quinnipiac Poll has Biden up two over Trump (48% to 46%) but this is the racial breakdown:
White
Trump 50%
Biden 45%
Black
Biden 72%
Trump 23%
Hispanic
Biden 54%
Trump 41%
So polling is definitely still brokenhttps://t.co/23TgCG4J5c
— Nick Field (@nick_field90) March 29, 2023

More polls showing Trump leading the GOP – his cult doesn’t care what he says or does

DeSantis back to his pre-boomlet level of support in the CPAC straw poll, Trump not as popular as he has been but still higher than immediately post-presidency. https://t.co/KtN9pgcxP8 pic.twitter.com/85an02trdC
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) March 4, 2023

Why Trump is a clear favorite for the 2024 GOP nomination. (@ForecasterEnten) https://t.co/zQCda0fshF
— Opinion Today (@OpinionToday) March 4, 2023

2024 National Republican Primary:

Trump 42%
DeSantis 26%
Haley 6%
Pence 5%
Romney 3%
Cheney 2%
Pompeo 2%
Abbott 1%
T. Scott 1%
Hogan 1%
Bolton 1%
Youngkin 1%
Sununu 1%
Ramaswamy 1%
.
Head-2-Head:
Trump 56% (+18)
DeSantis 38%

McLaughlin & Associates, 441 LV, 2/17-23
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) February 27, 2023

Poll results vary but Trump can beat DeSantis

The GOP doesn’t care what Trump has done – liar, bigot, insurrection inciter, it’s all fine with them

2024 GOP primary via new Quinnipiac poll:

42% Trump
36% DeSantis
5% Haley
4% Pence
4% Pompeo
2% Cruz
2% Cheney
1% Scott
0% Youngkin
0% Sununu
0% Noem
0% Hogan
0% Hutchinson
0% Christie
4% undecided
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) February 16, 2023

2024 National Republican Primary:

Trump 47%
DeSantis 31%
Pence 7%
Cruz 5%
Haley 3%
T. Scott 3%
Cheney 2%
.
Head-2-Head:
Trump 50% (+12)
DeSantis 38%
.
Trump 61% (+39)
Haley 22%

.@premisedata, 661 RV, 2/16-19https://t.co/5GbvMGCs1b
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) February 23, 2023

These polls are pretty useless because it's not a head-to-head matchup. I'm less convinced than ever that DeSantis has what it takes to beat Trump in a primary. pic.twitter.com/4ezalfF1HJ
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 20, 2023

2024 National Republican Primary:

DeSantis 33%
Trump 33%
Pence 2%
Haley 1%
Cruz 1%
Paul 1%
Pompeo 1%
.
Head-2-Head:
DeSantis 53% (+13)
Trump 40%
.
DeSantis 67% (+48)
Cruz 19%
.
Trump 60% (+29)
Cruz 31%

.@MonmouthPoll , 566 RV, 1/26-2/2https://t.co/ankftyErij pic.twitter.com/JwC7VeixWx
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) February 9, 2023

2024 National Republican Primary:

Trump 52%
DeSantis 24%
Haley 15%

.@Rasmussen_Poll, 2/16-20https://t.co/bcZ4zHpGbf
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) February 23, 2023

2024 National Republican Primary:

DeSantis 40%
Trump 31%
Pence 8%
Haley 8%
Cheney 5%
Cruz 2%
Pompeo 2%
Hogan 1%
Noem 1%
Rubio 1%
Youngkin 1%
.
Head-2-Head:
DeSantis 55% (+18)
Trump 37%

.@WPAIntel, 1,000 RV, 2/13-16https://t.co/l0HZmWYCx8
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) February 23, 2023

2024 National Republican Primary:

Trump 43%
DeSantis 31%
Pence 7%
Haley 4%

.@Reuters/@Ipsos, 1,465 RV, 2/6-13https://t.co/gFtIyP47QH
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) February 14, 2023

Trump’s grip on the Republican base is slipping — even among his fans https://t.co/TRaLieBNOm
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) February 24, 2023

Only about 1/4 of Republicans accept that Biden won legitimately

They’re never going to accept that Biden won. I expect red-state textbooks to show that the 2020 election was stolen.

The share of Republican respondents willing to recognize the legitimacy of Biden's election is only about a quarter & is unchanged from our poll taken before the midterms. @UMassPoll pic.twitter.com/XOYAUBt2gW
— Alex Theodoridis (@AGTheodoridis) January 13, 2023

While Trump weaker than used to be-👀 at where GOP primary voters are at:

ONLY
* 24% believe Biden won fair & square
* 16% believe Trump instigated “attack on the Capitol on 1/6”
* 13% do not want him to be nominee

* Trump fav 68/29
* Cheney fav 16/59https://t.co/tVrge8sFPO
— John Della Volpe (@dellavolpe) February 1, 2023

There’s still a large Trump cult

It doesn’t matter what Trump says.

It doesn’t matter what Trump does.

It doesn’t matter how many settlements Trump has to pay

It won’t matter if he is indicted.

There’s still a large Trump cult. I don’t think he will go to jail and a fine would be meaningless. I would like to see him barred from running for office.

Incredible—but good news for Democrats. Those who refuse to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it. https://t.co/zjVHmbOP5l
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) January 14, 2023

Ron DeSantis has made up notable ground in 2024 presidential nomination preferences, but Trump still gets the most first-choice votes & is among the top three choices for almost 2/3 of Republicans. Nobody else appears to draw meaningful support. @UMassPoll pic.twitter.com/inFunqTYGN
— Alex Theodoridis (@AGTheodoridis) January 13, 2023

2024 National Republican Primary:

Trump 41%
DeSantis 32%
Pence 4%
Haley 4%
Cruz 2%
Noem 2%
Romney 1%
Rubio 1%
T. Scott 1%
R. Scott 1%
Cheney 1%
Christie 1%
Gabbard 1%
Pompeo/Hogan/Kemp/Hawley/Abbot/Youngkin/Suarez 0%
.
Head-2-Head:
Trump 47%
DeSantis 46%

.@EchelonInsights
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) December 23, 2022

2024 National Republican Primary:

Trump 45%
DeSantis 30%
Pence 7%
Cruz 3%
Romney 2%
Haley 2%
Cheney 2%
Hawley 1%
Rubio 1%
Pompeo 1%

Politico/Morning Consult,
(842 RV, 11/18-20)
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 23, 2022

Nikki Haley gets a ton of coverage for someone polling at 2%. https://t.co/hEc5PGbBf4
— Drew Savicki ⛄️⛄️⛄️ (@DrewSav) January 22, 2023