They’re never going to accept that Biden won. I expect red-state textbooks to show that the 2020 election was stolen.
Category: Polls
There’s still a large Trump cult
It doesn’t matter what Trump says.
It doesn’t matter what Trump does.
It doesn’t matter how many settlements Trump has to pay
It won’t matter if he is indicted.
There’s still a large Trump cult. I don’t think he will go to jail and a fine would be meaningless. I would like to see him barred from running for office.
Incredible—but good news for Democrats. Those who refuse to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it. https://t.co/zjVHmbOP5l
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) January 14, 2023
Ron DeSantis has made up notable ground in 2024 presidential nomination preferences, but Trump still gets the most first-choice votes & is among the top three choices for almost 2/3 of Republicans. Nobody else appears to draw meaningful support. @UMassPoll pic.twitter.com/inFunqTYGN
— Alex Theodoridis (@AGTheodoridis) January 13, 2023
2024 National Republican Primary:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) December 23, 2022
Trump 41%
DeSantis 32%
Pence 4%
Haley 4%
Cruz 2%
Noem 2%
Romney 1%
Rubio 1%
T. Scott 1%
R. Scott 1%
Cheney 1%
Christie 1%
Gabbard 1%
Pompeo/Hogan/Kemp/Hawley/Abbot/Youngkin/Suarez 0%
.
Head-2-Head:
Trump 47%
DeSantis 46%
.@EchelonInsights
2024 National Republican Primary:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 23, 2022
Trump 45%
DeSantis 30%
Pence 7%
Cruz 3%
Romney 2%
Haley 2%
Cheney 2%
Hawley 1%
Rubio 1%
Pompeo 1%
Politico/Morning Consult,
(842 RV, 11/18-20)
Nikki Haley gets a ton of coverage for someone polling at 2%. https://t.co/hEc5PGbBf4
— Drew Savicki ⛄️⛄️⛄️ (@DrewSav) January 22, 2023
Democrats are much more interested in compromise than Republicans
35% is enough when 1/5 are ambivalent and these folks are disproportionately deciding primary contests in places that actually sent these folks to Washington. https://t.co/cCwNlObT1e
— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) January 6, 2023
48% is a higher number of Republicans in favor of compromise than we've seen in past polls.
— Bill Scher (@billscher) January 8, 2023
2014: 32% (Pew)https://t.co/AS2JB4RtqQ
2019: 36% (GW Politics)https://t.co/n5ScRmQ5gj https://t.co/E5HaR11Ehm
GOP polls will be used for the claims that elections were stolen
Republicans have issued polls showing their candidates doing better than more objective polls. Then, when some of them lose, they won’t accept the results. It’s a scam and I can see it coming.
Same with not counting the mail-in votes. Republicans complain about votes not being counted by election day but they block efforts to count them earlier.
Republicans flood the zone with pro-GOP polls, bending models in their direction https://t.co/IIjGrYhaJy
— Daily Kos (@dailykos) November 1, 2022
At this point, we basically have normal pollsters being like "don't trust our polls, they probably suck" and then Republican pollsters being like "our raw data wasn't good enough, so we just added some pretend Republicans to make things look better."
— Ben Yelin (@byelin) November 1, 2022
Not a great place to be! https://t.co/YUARLgybj5
Ignore the polls — even the political writers have begun acknowledging that the GOP is flooding the zone with crap polls to influence the RCP/538, while many of the traditional polling entities simply aren’t polling these midterms. pic.twitter.com/m5KW1wB2MN
— Angry Staffer 🌻 (@Angry_Staffer) November 3, 2022
Highly respected Marist has dropped 3 Senate polls:
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 4, 2022
Fetterman 51-45
Kelly 50-47
Warnock 48-48, up 4 w/RVs
These polls continue the pattern of respected independent polls being 4-8 pts more Dem than the recent flood of bullshit GOP polls. 2/https://t.co/7n6ykbIzVC
This is what I’ve been talking about. More than half the polls being used on aggregate sites are GOP – the rest are split between Dems/Independent
— Angry Staffer 🌻 (@Angry_Staffer) October 30, 2022
Flooding the zone is an attempt at voter suppression, and it’s a built-in excuse to accuse Dems of cheating if/when they’re wrong. https://t.co/us0qwfqbzl
1) The majority of polls released in the past week are Republican-commissioned and designed to (falsely) show a GOP landslide. There are always a handful of these “fake polls” and they just get averaged out, but now they’re dominating the averages. So why is the GOP doing this?
— Palmer Report (@PalmerReport) October 31, 2022
A "GOP flooding the zone w/shit polls" update.
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 5, 2022
In GA last 5 "A" rated independent polls have Warnock up an average of 3.2 pts, and he leads in every poll.
In October Rs have dropped 15 different polls by *10* different pollsters. The last 5 of these have Walker up 4.4 pts. 1/
"Last week, four Republican-leaning firms…showed Dr. Mehmet Oz with a lead. This week, four conventional pollsters have shown John Fetterman tied or ahead."
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 5, 2022
Gosh, that's some whacky polling-average trutherism coming from [checks notes] Nate Cohnhttps://t.co/2ZrnFE1r5A
Excellent point on GOP polls
Republicans will use this as a reason not to accept election results.
They’re flooding the zone with GOP polls so they can game the polling averages and claim election was stolen if Dems do better than expected. RCP and @NateSilver538 are getting played. https://t.co/OK0PidqxNw
— Jonathan Alter (@jonathanalter) October 30, 2022
We need to start talking about the flood of GOP-aligned polls in the poll averages.
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) October 24, 2022
In national polling there are 5-6 GOP polls for every Dem aligned poll.
In PA 3 of 5 public polls we have from Oct are from GOP aligned firms.
Become too much of a thing to ignore.
NYT/Siena finds stronger results for Dems than the current poll averages (which are largely driven now by GOP pollsters like Trafalgar) across the four most critical Senate races.
— Taniel (@Taniel) October 31, 2022
The 49-44 Fetterman lead only *partly* after the debate. https://t.co/fBSn2CNQeC pic.twitter.com/tiCPBXXEy1
GOP polls have really been flooding the zone in Georgia. There have been five GOP polls of GA-SEN released this week. Zero nonpartisan polls. Last week ECU released a poll showing Warnock up 49-47. Only nonpartisan poll we've had.
— Drew Savicki 👻👻🦇🦇🎃🎃 (@DrewSav) October 28, 2022
After a flood of GOP outlier polls in all of these races designed to create stories about an impending red wave and digging into why Dems are losing ("is it crime/inflation?"), NYT/Siena suggests not much has changed in these races in the past two weeks. https://t.co/NexzmALJcf
— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) October 31, 2022
Nearly 2/3 of Republicans don’t trust the 2022 election results
I expect violence, lawsuits, recounts, and all kinds of stuff to sabotage the election results. I blame Trump.
NEW Brace for Nov. 9: Nearly two-thirds of Republican voters in the @USATODAY @Suffolk_U Poll say they don't trust the midterm election count to be fair and accurate. https://t.co/6zyzjwNkpk
— Susan Page (@SusanPage) October 30, 2022
More generic polls – 10/18/22
I'm sure this poll will get the same kind of saturated media coverage yesterday's NYT/Sienna poll did, especially since this poll surveyed 8,000 likely voters versus the NYT's sample size of…792 https://t.co/MiRHfXKDVH
— Adam Blickstein (@AdamBlickstein) October 18, 2022
49% of likely U.S. voters said they planned to vote for a Republican congressional candidate on Nov. 8, compared with 45% who planned to vote for a Democrat, a New York Times/Siena College poll found. It's an improvement for Republicans since September. https://t.co/0qzCzfQmbm pic.twitter.com/m9A4hIuekN
— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 17, 2022
RCP generic ballot average 22 days pre-midterm:
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) October 17, 2022
Now: GOP +1.8
2018: Dem +7.3
2014: GOP +1.8
2010: GOP +8.2
2006: Dem +14.3
Fox News poll (in field Oct. 9-12) has Dems +3 on generic congressional ballot.
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) October 17, 2022
NYT/Siena poll (in field Oct. 9-12) has Reps +3 on generic congressional ballot.
GOP reaction/spin: Happy triumphalism.
Dem reaction/they don't know how to spin: Sad defeatism.
Truth: A toss-up.
Democrats let media change the subject and look what happened https://t.co/TM5ZN9uZpk
— Will Stancil (@whstancil) October 17, 2022
Polls on wearing masks
Most likely to support continued mask wearing: Black people, and people making <$40K / year. Black ppl also more likely to know someone who died of Covid, and to have had finances adversely impacted by it. pic.twitter.com/ODQ2BrpMfA
— Katie Bach (@kathrynsbach) October 14, 2022
That is a gigantic gap pic.twitter.com/A1PhBSNYkQ
— Justin Feldman (@jfeldman_epi) October 14, 2022
Polls on the Supreme Court update 10/4/22
NATIONAL POLL: Negative job rating for US Supreme Court (37% approve to 54% disapprove). A majority have disapproved of #SCOTUS since the abortion decision leak in May.
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) September 30, 2022
DISAPPROVE by PARTY:
DEM – 81%
IND – 54%
REP – 28% https://t.co/WJdcwK5yzJ pic.twitter.com/N8FmrmzAkK
NEW POLL: Supreme Court Trust, Job Approval at Historical Lows https://t.co/mm0jghap82
— Brian Fallon (@brianefallon) September 29, 2022
In general, do you think the current Supreme Court is too liberal, too conservative, or just about right?
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) October 4, 2022
Too liberal 18%
Too conservative 42%
About right 38%
(Gallup Poll, 9/1-16/22)
trend: https://t.co/wOtlkkLIG2
icymi
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) October 3, 2022
Is the current Supreme Court in touch or out of touch with the values and beliefs of most Americans?
In touch 34%
Out of touch 59%
(Monmouth U. Poll, 9/21-25/22)
more: https://t.co/wOtlkkLIG2
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing?
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 30, 2022
Approve 37%
Disapprove 54%
(Monmouth U. Poll, 9/21-25/22)
The Supreme Court is currently a lifetime appointment. Would you support or oppose creating term limits for Supreme Court justices?
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 30, 2022
Support 66%
Oppose 31%
(Monmouth U. Poll, 9/21-25/22)
In its 35 years of polling on the Supreme Court, Pew has never documented a wider partisan gap in views of the institution https://t.co/Q5jtvy1328
— TIME (@TIME) September 5, 2022
The Supreme Court's ratings have plummeted by 33 points — to net -7% — after Republican justices overturned Roe v Wade.
— Chris Kang (@cdkang76) August 29, 2022
This includes a dramatic -45% swing among independents, who now view the Court negatively.https://t.co/FTl8jMS0Um pic.twitter.com/0D6vtmn5GY
NATIONAL POLL: Two-thirds (66%) of Americans would support creating term limits for US Supreme Court justices. Just 31% are opposed.
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) September 30, 2022
SUPPORT #SCOTUS TERM LIMITS by PARTY:
DEM – 86%
IND – 63%
REP – 51%https://t.co/WJdcwK5yzJ
NATIONAL POLL: Just 36% support expanding US Supreme Court to more than nine justices. A majority (60%) are opposed.
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) September 30, 2022
SUPPORT #SCOTUS EXPANSION by PARTY:
DEM – 67%
IND – 30%
REP – 14%https://t.co/WJdcwKnHNR
Abortion polls update 9/16/22
The extremist Supreme Court decision is unpopular.
Really striking findings in the new NYT poll:
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) September 16, 2022
52% of voters *strongly* oppose the Dobbs ruling. Only 19% strongly support it
57% of women *strongly* oppose the ruling
This upends some very big assumptions about abortion politics and the midterms.https://t.co/L4XmVgg66X
Fox poll: Registered voters
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 16, 2022
Supreme Court overturning Roe
Approve 32%
Disapprove 63%
OHIO
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 15, 2022
Ohio lawmakers are considering a ban on abortion after cardiac activity detected, usually around 6 weeks. There would be an exception for the life of the mother and no exceptions for rape or incest.
Support ban 26%
Oppose ban 68%
(Suffolk U/USA Today Network, LV, 9/5-7/22)
Do you approve or disapprove of the Supreme Court overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion decision?
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 15, 2022
Approve 32%
Disapprove 63%
(Fox News Poll, RV, 9/9-12/22)
Overwhelming support overall for allowing abortions in cases of rape or incest. In total, 83% favor that, 10% oppose. Among Republicans, 70% favor, 20% oppose. Among Democrats, 96% favor, 2% oppose. Among independents, 83% favor, 9% oppose. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) September 14, 2022
icymi
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 13, 2022
… What would you like to see Congress do: pass a law allowing abortions nationwide, pass a law banning abortions nationwide, or leave abortion law up to the individual states?
Law allowing 46%
Law banning 7%
Leave to states 44%
(Monmouth U. Poll, 6/24-27/22)
1/2
… Do you agree or disagree with the recent Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade?
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 14, 2022
Agree 34%
Disagree 61%
(Quinnipiac U. Poll, 8/25-29/22)
more: https://t.co/LiHUeoPeRE
1/2
Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 13, 2022
Legal all cases 34%
Legal most cases 32%
Illegal most cases 22%
Illegal all cases 7%
(Quinnipiac U. Poll, 8/25-29/22)
this really should, but likely won't, induce a pretty broad reconsideration of whether it's smart to base your politics around chasing the median view as described in polling, rather than CHANGING the median view through strong messaging https://t.co/GjLovp6TX0
— Will Stancil (@whstancil) September 13, 2022
Sad! 