Abortion polls update 9/16/22

The extremist Supreme Court decision is unpopular.

Really striking findings in the new NYT poll:

52% of voters *strongly* oppose the Dobbs ruling. Only 19% strongly support it

57% of women *strongly* oppose the ruling

This upends some very big assumptions about abortion politics and the midterms.https://t.co/L4XmVgg66X
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) September 16, 2022

Fox poll: Registered voters

Supreme Court overturning Roe

Approve 32%
Disapprove 63%
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 16, 2022

OHIO
Ohio lawmakers are considering a ban on abortion after cardiac activity detected, usually around 6 weeks. There would be an exception for the life of the mother and no exceptions for rape or incest.

Support ban 26%
Oppose ban 68%

(Suffolk U/USA Today Network, LV, 9/5-7/22)
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 15, 2022

Do you approve or disapprove of the Supreme Court overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion decision?

Approve 32%
Disapprove 63%

(Fox News Poll, RV, 9/9-12/22)
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 15, 2022

Overwhelming support overall for allowing abortions in cases of rape or incest. In total, 83% favor that, 10% oppose. Among Republicans, 70% favor, 20% oppose. Among Democrats, 96% favor, 2% oppose. Among independents, 83% favor, 9% oppose. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) September 14, 2022

icymi

… What would you like to see Congress do: pass a law allowing abortions nationwide, pass a law banning abortions nationwide, or leave abortion law up to the individual states?

Law allowing 46%
Law banning 7%
Leave to states 44%

(Monmouth U. Poll, 6/24-27/22)

1/2
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 13, 2022

… Do you agree or disagree with the recent Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade?

Agree 34%
Disagree 61%

(Quinnipiac U. Poll, 8/25-29/22)
more: https://t.co/LiHUeoPeRE

1/2
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 14, 2022

Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

Legal all cases 34%
Legal most cases 32%
Illegal most cases 22%
Illegal all cases 7%

(Quinnipiac U. Poll, 8/25-29/22)
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 13, 2022

this really should, but likely won't, induce a pretty broad reconsideration of whether it's smart to base your politics around chasing the median view as described in polling, rather than CHANGING the median view through strong messaging https://t.co/GjLovp6TX0
— Will Stancil (@whstancil) September 13, 2022

More generic ballot congressional polls 9/8/22

Momentum has shifted to the Democrats. We’ll see in November.

DDHQ Forecast Update: 9/8

Polls:
– NC Senate via Trafalgar: Budd+2.8
– WA Senate via PPP: Murray+9

Generic Ballot:
– NBC/Marist: D+4
– GSG/Navigator Research: D+5

Rating Changes:
– NC Senate: TOSS UP –> LEAN R
Budd's chances move up 65.8% (+4.6 delta)https://t.co/UHhMBpQqvL pic.twitter.com/ekDCmBpI0I
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) September 8, 2022

Now officially above D+1 in our generic ballot aggregate pic.twitter.com/9gVBAElOqI
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) September 7, 2022

Generic Congressional Ballot:

Democrats 44% (+6)
Republicans 38%

.@YouGovAmerica/@TheEconomist, 1,337 RV, 9/3-6https://t.co/jAuswGozIk
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 7, 2022

Generic Congressional Ballot:

538 Average:
Democrats 44.6% (+1.0)
Republicans 43.6%
.
RCP Average:
Democrats 44.6% (+0.1)
Republicans 44.5%
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 5, 2022

61% of Republicans still want Trump to run even if he’s charged with a crime!

Nothing will convince the Trump cult of the facts about their disgraceful leader.

Two-thirds of independents say they don't want Trump to run for president again. Two-thirds of Republicans say they want Trump to run, and a whopping 61% of them say they still want him to run even if he's charged with a crime. (@DomenicoNPR) https://t.co/XKVOyhaEUQ
— Opinion Today (@OpinionToday) September 7, 2022

Labor unions are popular

Major trend reversal from 2009. https://t.co/t0tzJ9HId5
— Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) September 5, 2022

Breaking — New Gallup Poll finds that public approval of unions climbs to 71%, the highest level since 1965 https://t.co/0HfWM1unYE
— Steven Greenhouse (@greenhousenyt) August 30, 2022

Support for unions soar – 71 percent approve in new poll, highest since the 1960s. The divide between rich and poor has grown and workers feel the inequity on this Labor Day @ejdionne https://t.co/0Fbssw57Ve
— Mary Jordan (@marycjordan) September 5, 2022

Fun fact, as we celebrate this Labor Day: Unions are cool again. A Gallup poll shows that unions are more popular than they have been since the 1960s. Nearly half of nonunion workers say they would join a union in their workplace if they had the chance- @rweingarten
— Harvey J Kaye (@harveyjkaye) September 5, 2022

Generic ballot polls update 9/3/22

If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

Democrats win control 47%
Republicans win control 43%

(Quinnipiac U. Poll, RV, 8/25-29/22)
trend: https://t.co/l9hgFOS0NF
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 2, 2022

Generic Congressional Ballot:

Democrats 47% (+5)
Republicans 42%

.@MorningConsult/@Politico, 2,007 RV, 8/26-28https://t.co/D9X8GD1yxc
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 31, 2022

Generic Congressional Ballot:

Democrats 48% (+7)
Republicans 41%

Big Village, 848 LV, 8/24-26https://t.co/RivyyAcMOc
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 28, 2022

Biden Job Approval:
Approve 42%
Disapprove 51%
.
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 45% (+1)
Democrats 44%

Emerson, 1,000 RV, 8/23-24https://t.co/VPp3BRdLET
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 26, 2022

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 48%
Rep 44%

8/19-8/22 by Echelon Insights (B/C)
1054 LV

Arf arf! Can I have a treat?

Poll #159937 #ElectionTwitter
— Stella (@stella2020woof) August 25, 2022

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 50%
Rep 42%

8/19-8/22 by Echelon Insights (B/C)
1054 RV

Woof! Hope this was helpful!

Poll #159936 #ElectionTwitter
— Stella (@stella2020woof) August 25, 2022

Generic Congressional Ballot:

Democrats 46% (+4)
Republicans 42%

.@MorningConsult/@Politico, 2,005 RV, 8/12-14https://t.co/niEj0q4QT2
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 17, 2022

Public approval of the Supreme Court sinks after their terrible abortion ruling

Supreme Court ratings plummet after abortion decision. (@Dchinni @chucktodd @MeetThePress) Details: https://t.co/xOnkns5p1n pic.twitter.com/Lb7JO2zxbY
— Opinion Today (@OpinionToday) August 28, 2022

The Supreme Court’s favorable rating has sunk to 35% 👍 versus 42% 👎 among registered voters in the new @NBCNews poll after abortion ruling.

It’s the first time in the history of this poll going back to 1992 that the court’s image has been net negative.https://t.co/jL7XdphdWh
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) August 26, 2022

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Supreme Court of the United States is doing?

Approve 41%
Disapprove 55%

(Fox News Poll, RV, 8/6-9/22)
trend: https://t.co/wOtlkkLIG2
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) August 14, 2022

Americans' approval of the Supreme Court has fallen again, new poll shows https://t.co/IXArRSX6Si
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) July 20, 2022

New abortion polls

… Do you approve or disapprove of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade?

Approve 38%
Disapprove 58%

(NBC News Poll, RV, 8/12-16/22)

1/2
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) August 23, 2022

WISCONSIN
Do you approve or disapprove of the Supreme Court overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion decision?

Approve 37%
Disapprove 55%

(Fox News Poll, RV, 8/12-16/22)
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) August 19, 2022

Fox News Poll: 60% of registered voters disapprove of decision to overturn Roe v. Wade; record 55% disapprove of the U.S. Supreme Court’s job performance. (Victoria Balara, Fox News) Details: https://t.co/pbruzqQuvp pic.twitter.com/wBbMpQN8y9
— Opinion Today (@OpinionToday) August 11, 2022

Fox News national poll: 93% of Americans are extremely, very or somewhat familiar with the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade

35% approve
61% disapprove pic.twitter.com/udbpH1JZna
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) July 18, 2022

By a 20 point margin AZ voters oppose GOP SCOTUS decision overturning Roe per ⁦@OHPredictive⁩ poll. More data released today show AZ majorities back key gun control measures including #assaultweapons ban. State Rs moving in opposite direction https://t.co/j2oulgMz5u
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) July 27, 2022

The generic ballot is moving towards the Democrats

Even GOP polls are showing the election moving significantly towards the Democrats.

It is clearly a new, bluer election. https://t.co/S37gPXomUX
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) August 12, 2022

The electoral picture for Democrats has improved since the Dobbs decision, but it isn't great. Especially since the pattern over the past four cycles is that results match the generic ballot — or shift heavily to the GOP. https://t.co/uzzmHj09Ra pic.twitter.com/4V0xbMTVgF
— Philip Bump (@pbump) August 12, 2022

“Meanwhile, the shift in vote preference mainly comes from women. They preferred the GOP candidate by 1 point in May and now go for the Democrat by 6.” https://t.co/MniGETqZpQ pic.twitter.com/wuqcHuKyFL
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) August 11, 2022

GOP advantage in the generic ballot is gone in new Fox News poll. Was 46-39% in May, then 47-44% in June and 44-41% in July. New poll is even at 41-41%.
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) August 11, 2022

Do voters want Democrats or Republicans in Congress? https://t.co/pz9s2mpngQ
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) August 5, 2022

The Trump cult is immune to facts – the 1/6 hearings changed nothing

The majority of Republicans will never accept the fact that Biden won the 2020 election. They have not been moved by the great job the 1/6 committee has done.

Jan. 6 hearings have no impact on public opinion; 4 in 10 would back a Trump presidential bid in 2024 (@PollsterPatrick @MonmouthPoll) Details: https://t.co/R84GqrAZru pic.twitter.com/61wKSkKA1x
— Opinion Today (@OpinionToday) August 9, 2022

New polling reinforces that Republicans are no less likely now than a year ago to say Biden won due to fraud and no more likely to reject politicians who claim Trump was the real winner. https://t.co/AWDozfR53o
— Philip Bump (@pbump) August 9, 2022

NATIONAL POLL: Is Trump responsible for #Jan6?
38% directly responsible
26% encouraged those involved
32% did nothing wrong

72% of DEMs say he was directly responsible and 68% of REPs say he did nothing wrong.https://t.co/W5dirGYAR7
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) August 9, 2022

Turning to the incident at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, is it appropriate or not appropriate to describe this incident as a legitimate protest?

REP
Appropriate 53%
Not appropriate 40%

DEM
Appropriate 18%
Not appropriate 81%

(Monmouth U. Poll, 7/28 – 8/1/22)
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) August 9, 2022

How much of the responsibility, if any, do you think former President Trump bears for the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021?

REPUBLICANS
A lot 8%
Some 21%
Not much 24%
None at all 46%

(Quinnipiac U. Poll, 7/14-18/22)
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) July 22, 2022

icymi

Which candidate do you think was the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election?

Joe Biden 65%
Donald Trump 28%

(New York Times/Siena College Poll, RV, 7/5-7/22)https://t.co/IiCgGgKEMr
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) July 22, 2022

icymi

Which candidate do you think was the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election?

DEM
Joe Biden 99%
Donald Trump 1%

REP
Joe Biden 29%
Donald Trump 61%

(New York Times/Siena College Poll, RV, 7/5-7/22)https://t.co/IiCgGgKEMr
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) July 22, 2022

icymi

Do you believe Joe Biden won the 2020 election fair and square, or do you believe that he only won it due to voter fraud?

REP
Fair & square 27%
Due to fraud 58%

DEM
Fair & square 95%
Due to fraud 3%

(Monmouth U. Poll, 6/23-27/22)
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) July 22, 2022

Do you think the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, was planned, or do you think it was spontaneous?

REP
Planned 47%
Spontaneous 44%

DEM
Planned 93%
Spontaneous 6%

IND
Planned 62%
Spontaneous 28%

(Quinnipiac U. Poll, 7/14-18/22)
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) July 22, 2022

Do you think the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, was planned, or do you think it was spontaneous?

Planned 66%
Spontaneous 26%

(Quinnipiac U. Poll, 7/14-18/22)
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) July 22, 2022

How much of the responsibility, if any, do you think former President Trump bears for the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021?

A lot 45%
Some 16%
Not much 14%
None at all 22%

(Quinnipiac U. Poll, 7/14-18/22)
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) July 22, 2022

Based on what you have seen or heard about the January 6th Congressional committee hearings, do you think former president Trump should be charged with crimes?

Yes 50%
No 46%

(NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, RV, 7/11-17/22)
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) July 22, 2022

How much do you think former President Trump is to blame for what happened at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th?

Great deal/Good amount 58%
Not very much/Not at all 40%

(NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, RV, 7/11-17/22)
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) July 22, 2022

Abortion polls update 8/8/22

JUST IN: 49% of Americans said they would be more likely to support a candidate who would keep access to abortion legal compared to 27% who would be more likely to support the candidate who favors limiting abortion, per a new @ABC News/Ipsos poll. https://t.co/wTAKYhUnmY
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) August 7, 2022

Republicans don’t seem to get it: no one wants to live in a state where the government can force you to give birth against your will, even if your life is in danger.https://t.co/BSG6K4PUAd
— Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (@DLCC) August 8, 2022

Wow, this chart … https://t.co/9LenCy5O07 pic.twitter.com/Vx7NNwhS2z
— Josh Chafetz (@joshchafetz) August 4, 2022

The Dobbs decision is looking like much more of a political earthquake than anybody anticipated, and the shock doesn't seem to be fading.

More than a month later, 55% of Americans say abortion is "very important" to their midterm votehttps://t.co/0H2HRaL5TR
— Charlotte Alter (@CharlotteAlter) August 3, 2022

Poll: 7 in 10 Americans, regardless of party affiliation, want to be able to vote on an abortion measure on their state ballot. https://t.co/l0zEQE1fz3
— Axios (@axios) August 10, 2022