Polls on Trump vs. potential 2020 opponents

Too early to read too much into these polls.

Stop hyperventilating over polls of Trump vs Biden, etc. – too early to be predictive:
-June 1983: Mondale 49%, Reagan 39%
-June 1991: George H.W. Bush 51%, Democrat 28%, Don't know 21%
-June 1995: Dole 48%, Clinton 44%
-June 2011: Republican 44%, Obama 39%
(all Gallup data)
— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan) June 11, 2019

This is not the only poll like this, and they all kill the “electability” argument. There are people who would have voters believe that only a white man can win this election. The hopes of some candidates rely heavily upon that notion. Don’t buy it, folks. Choose who you like. https://t.co/XKBapUncmS
— Jamil Smith (@JamilSmith) June 11, 2019

Trump 41% is trending nationwide. So feel free to keep saying it.

Like this:

Americans who want pre-existing conditions to be covered 98%
Trump 41%

Or:

Support for universal background checks on guns 85%
Trump 41%

Or:@Browns win Super Bowl 51% (Sorry I'm a fan)
Trump 41% https://t.co/NhWYa5z3wh
— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) June 12, 2019

There are some… differences by age in new Quinnipiac poll of the 2020 Democratic primary:

Under 50 years old:
Sanders 32%
Biden 18%
Warren 16%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 6%

50 years old and over:
Biden 41%
Warren 15%
Buttigieg 10%
Harris 9%
Sanders 5%
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) June 11, 2019

Russia likes Trump more than Obama – other countries don’t

Trump can do as many photo ops in white tie as he wants. But he is savaging our key alliances.

Change in confidence in US president from Obama in 2016 to Trump in 2018 (Pew)

Germany: -76%
Sweden: -76%
France: -75%
Canada: -58%
Australia: -52%
UK: -51%
Japan: -48%
Russia: +8%
— Brian Klaas (@brianklaas) June 4, 2019

To Trump’s critics, his denial of protests in a London showcased a president refusing to come to grips with the reality that he remains deeply unpopular around the world and that perceptions of U.S. global leadership have plummeted. W/⁦@ToluseO⁩ https://t.co/QdL1kuVEZF
— David Nakamura (@DavidNakamura) June 4, 2019

Health care polls

NEW @KaiserFam Tracking Poll: Found Nearly seven in ten Americans (68 percent), say lowering prescription drug costs for as many Americans as possible is a ‘top priority’ for Congress. https://t.co/2Sz5tZddVQ #ProtectOurCare
— Protect Our Care (@ProtectOurCare) April 25, 2019

In a recent Kaiser Poll
68% pf participants don't want the Supreme Court to overturn their preexisting condition protections

54% of participants want to keep Affordable Health… https://t.co/iwgL4yKMEH
— Glenn (@wat4ins) April 26, 2019

Our most recent KFF Health Tracking Poll finds the public’s support for a national health plan, or Medicare-for-all, has basically held steady since the 2016 presidential election — with 56% of the public currently favoring such a proposal. https://t.co/qigvFjrrHP pic.twitter.com/7WzpUXn5EZ
— Kaiser Family Foundation (@KaiserFamFound) April 26, 2019

Recent polls

2020 head-to-heads in new @CNN poll out today:

O'Rourke 52%, Trump 42%
Biden 51%, Trump 45%
Sanders 50%, Trump 44%
Harris 49%, Trump 45%
Trump 48%, Warren 47%
Buttigieg 47%, Trump 44%
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) May 2, 2019

Head-to-head @CNN 2020 poll among whites without a college degree:

Trump +13% over Biden
Trump +15% over Buttigieg
Trump +16% over O'Rourke
Trump +17% over Sanders
Trump +28% over Harris
Trump +34% over Warren
Trump +37% over Clinton '16
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) May 2, 2019

Trump approval rating by race via new Quinnipiac poll:

White:
48% approve
48% disapprove

Black:
8% approve
87% disapprove

Hispanic:
33% approve
63% disapprove
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) May 2, 2019

Republican Senator tweets out poll showing:

* Only 30% of Americans support Trump's "solution" of making it harder for migrants to apply for asylum

* 64% oppose Trump's national emergency to build wall

* 57% disapprove of Trump's handling of immigration, his top issue https://t.co/0mLegtceUJ
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) May 1, 2019

Mulvaney says Trump's approval rating is 50%. No sure where he is getting that from. Latest Rassmusen (which Trump likes to cite) has him at 48%. All the other polls are lower. RCP average of polls is 43%
— Abby D. Phillip (@abbydphillip) April 30, 2019

The anti-Trump vote is much deeper and wider than his base vote https://t.co/FXpHg3hzYn
— Daily Kos (@dailykos) April 29, 2019

JUST IN: By a 17-point margin, Americans say Pres. Trump’s handling of health care makes them more likely to oppose than support him for a second term, per new @ABC News/WaPo poll. https://t.co/fgVhnCLNgF pic.twitter.com/UBx3jf3R7N
— ABC News (@ABC) April 29, 2019

New Post/ABC poll:

55 percent of Americans say they definitely will not vote for Trump.

Among women, it's 62 percent (!)

Among college educated whites, it's 54% (cc @RonBrownstein). pic.twitter.com/8aNqTtJ8Iq
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) April 29, 2019

While it’s big that 62% of women & 57% of white college educated women say they won’t vote Trump in 2020, the more eye popping news is 53% of seniors, a group Trump won by 9 in 2016, saying the same. Major shift in electorate getting little attention https://t.co/3BHZu2jy7p
— Evan Siegfried (@evansiegfried) April 29, 2019

Wow. https://t.co/sfeylBAdcI
— George Conway (@gtconway3d) April 29, 2019

In new Post/ABC poll, Trump's immigration numbers are remarkably bad.

Among groups who powered the 2018 Dem win, large pluralities say his handling of it makes them *less* likely to back him.

But: 63% of white evangelicals say the opposite.

New piece: https://t.co/BXdR5TghwH
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) April 29, 2019

New ABC/WaPo post-Mueller report poll shows plurality saying Trump's actions amounted to obstruction of justice but majority opposed to impeachment.

How it compares to Sept. 1998 post-Starr report ABC/WaPo poll: pic.twitter.com/6GbUJVr5MV
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) April 26, 2019

51% of Republicans do not think white supremacists are a threat

ICYMI
Do you think that white supremacist groups pose a threat to the United States?
ALL
Yes 65%
No 29%
Dem.
Yes 88%
No 9%
Ind.
Yes 66%
No 29%
Rep.
Yes 41%
No 51%
(Quinnipiac U. Poll, RV, 3/21-25/19)
trend: https://t.co/kj08CIY1oa
— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) April 26, 2019

Majority say Trump lied to us

However, the poll shows the public is also opposed to impeachment. I don’t want impeachment because I want indictments. Trump must be held accountable. Impeachment will fail in the Senate because Republicans have no interest in enforcing the law. They only care what the Trump cult thinks.

However, if Trump and his staff don’t respond to subpoenas, we may have to up the ante by going to impeachment.

A majority of Americans oppose impeachment, but a majority also say Trump lied to public, Post-ABC poll finds https://t.co/OYauHQBajQ
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 26, 2019

BREAKING: Just three in 10 Americans accept Pres. Trump’s claim to have been exonerated following release of Mueller report, new @ABC News/WaPo poll finds; 47% say Trump obstructed justice. https://t.co/juRmnN1FgQ pic.twitter.com/VX8LMl0iES
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) April 26, 2019

Young voters disapprove of Trump

Harvard IOP poll of young voters:

•Just 23% say they’re GOP
•68% disapprove of Trump
•22% say Trump & 18% Baby Boomers “care about people like me”
•61% Concerned about moral direction of US
•Plurality view climate change as crisis demanding action https://t.co/hNukRal1Wd
— Evan Siegfried (@evansiegfried) April 22, 2019

“The Census found 36% of citizens ages 18-29 reported voting in last year’s midterm elections, jumping 16 percentage points since 2014 (when turnout was 20%) and easily surpassing any midterm election since the 1980s.” Trump < age 34 disapproval =70% in Monday’s Harvard/IOP poll https://t.co/c13GqBVRbI
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) April 23, 2019

The census estimates are great, but imperfect. We have actual individual vote history. It turns out the turnout rate among voters age 18-29 more than doubled, relative to 2014. https://t.co/0KbWa9mc3P
— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) April 24, 2019