I think Kavanaugh will be confirmed as the next Supreme Court justice.
What happens if he isn’t? I don’t think it matters much. Trump doesn’t compromise – it’s not like he would pick a moderate instead. He’ll pick somebody else off the list of extreme conservatives that was prepared for him by the Federalist Society.
The Supreme Court was a major reason people voted for Trump. He won’t let them down since he has very little in his favor right now.
Trump would probably pick someone with an easier path to confirmation. McConnell suggested other choices than Kavanaugh.
From the 7/8/18 article: “Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, told President Trump this past week that Judges Raymond M. Kethledge and Thomas M. Hardiman presented the fewest obvious obstacles to being confirmed to replace Justice Anthony M. Kennedy on the Supreme Court, according to Republican officials briefed on the conversation.
While careful not to directly make the case for any would-be justice, Mr. McConnell made clear in multiple phone calls with Mr. Trump and the White House counsel, Donald F. McGahn II, that the lengthy paper trail of another top contender, Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh, would pose difficulties for his confirmation.”