Will Harping on Immigration Do What Trump Wants It to Do? Evidence from @johnmsides, Tesler, and my Identity Crisis in advance of tomorrow’s votes. https://t.co/i9vGF0TnQo
— Lynn Vavreck (@vavreck) November 6, 2018
Yogi Berra famously said: "We made too many wrong mistakes."
People are so spooked by #Trump's unexpected victory that they are making the wrong mistake this year by underestimating the strong tilt to the Democrats. Here's why I think they'll do well:https://t.co/IAjMjHzRAm— EJ Dionne (@EJDionne) November 6, 2018
ICYMI
A spate of House polls reinforces good news for the Democratic Party (@pbump) details: https://t.co/7RIc50qKPE pic.twitter.com/VLfIeyKGbW— OpinionToday.com (@OpinionToday) November 6, 2018
Hugely important point just now by @ezraklein: if the outcome of the midterms is that Republicans lose the popular vote for House and Senate, as they did w/ the White House, but due to gerrymandering emerge still controlling all three (and the Supreme Court)? Legitimacy crisis.
— Joy Reid (@JoyAnnReid) November 6, 2018
Top 10 Senate races by TV ad spending (gen elex), via @Kantar_Media:
1. Florida: $96.3 M
2. Nevada: $78.7 M
3. Indiana: $76.8 M
4. Missouri: $72.3 M
5. Tennessee: $59.4 M
6. Arizona: $51.7 M
7. New Jersey: $50.5 M
8. Texas: $47.1 M
9. W. Virginia: $33.9 M
10. Montana: $27.8 M— David Wright (@DavidWright_CNN) November 5, 2018
The inimitable @jmartNYT got a shoutout here in West Fargo at Heitkamp’s last rally of the campaign. As a tribute to her mother (and this article!) she and her daughter wore “SHE MADE US STRONG” sweatshirts https://t.co/B1iy7tTTll
— Catie Edmondson (@CatieEdmondson) November 6, 2018
Long considered a Republican stronghold, there is a razor-thin margin between the candidates competing to be the first female representative in New Mexico's 2nd district https://t.co/MxKdHXbx0P pic.twitter.com/n8sFLs4nd9
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) November 6, 2018
I guess we're about to find out how good Trump's favorite pollster is pic.twitter.com/Q09EpYFRsB
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) November 5, 2018
8 big questions for Election Day | Analysis by CNN's Chris Cillizza https://t.co/LJNPMLuZa0 pic.twitter.com/KWaOYfn075
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) November 6, 2018
Two years later, Trump isn't different. We are. https://t.co/4tylQy07Bd
— Susan Glasser (@sbg1) November 6, 2018
Trump effect? Candidates plow record amounts of their own money into congressional bids https://t.co/xZYIEKg4pT pic.twitter.com/nDRhKqNePo
— CNN (@CNN) November 6, 2018
In the midterms, President Trump’s unrelenting focus on immigration may not work the way it did in 2016 because voters have already sorted themselves out along partisan lines, say @johnmsides, Michael Tesler and @vavreck. https://t.co/6brYAY5ExP
— NYT Opinion (@nytopinion) November 5, 2018
Stunning. An estimated ONE in THREE black men are barred from voting in Kentucky, the highest rate in the country. Wild guess which veteran Kentucky politician has been a staunch defender of the state’s disenfranchisement law. https://t.co/mTaV45kcax
— Alec MacGillis (@AlecMacGillis) November 5, 2018
Democrats gained by more than 3 pts in our final polls over our initial ones, and this individual-level analysis indicates that's not merely because of identifiable changes in the composition of the sample, like more Dems https://t.co/zv2PSu8neT
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 5, 2018
"While female & minority lawmakers prepare to expand their influence within the opposition party, the House GOP is projected to become more white, male & conservative after its female & minority members face strong challengers at the ballot box." https://t.co/NOEogIQ840
— Eugene Scott (@Eugene_Scott) November 6, 2018
So who's ahead in each race for governor?
(The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the band, the less certain the model is about the outcome.)https://t.co/CGJ5zpSiPA pic.twitter.com/ZJeI2UC8Kf
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) November 6, 2018
3 bills in 30 years. 17 votes against protections for pre-existing conditions.
No, Mr. President. People in Orange County will replace the production of corruption, mediocrity, and extremism.
See you in January. https://t.co/hsRGQcjc1J
— Harley Rouda (@HarleyRouda) November 5, 2018
Regarding #GA06, it's possible Stacey Abrams (D) & Lucy McBath (D) are better-suited to turning out the Dem base than Jon Ossoff (D) & $30 million ever were. We'll see.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2018
"Most Americans say Trump is a deciding factor in their vote." @SusanPage on #Midterms2018. #hardball
— Hardball (@hardball) November 6, 2018
— icymi —
INDIANA
U.S. Senate:
Joe Donnelly (D) 45%
Mike Braun (R) 38%
Lucy Brenton (L) 5%
(Fox News Poll, LV, 10/27-30/18)— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) November 6, 2018
Regarding #GA06, it's possible Stacey Abrams (D) & Lucy McBath (D) are better-suited to turning out the Dem base than Jon Ossoff (D) & $30 million ever were. We'll see.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2018
Sad! 