This is a very real possibility. I don’t care about national popular vote polls as much as polls in swing states that will determine the election.
Analysis: Hillary Clinton got 2.9M more votes than Donald Trump in the 2016 election, but Trump comfortably prevailed in the Electoral College.
— NBC News (@NBCNews) July 19, 2019
It's possible in 2020 that he could win 5M fewer votes than his opponent — and still win a second term. https://t.co/4qqY0wjr4d
i still think folks are underestimating the danger of this outcome and the real threat it poses to american democracy. https://t.co/RUxWCVfMks
— b-boy bouiebaisse (@jbouie) July 19, 2019
A world where Dems win their 2016 states plus MI and PA is one where they have 268 EVs. They either need to win a third red state OR win both Maine’s 2nd District (the part of the state that isn’t the SE coast) and Nebraska’s 2nd District (Omaha and part of its suburbs). https://t.co/xt4Q12YJmL
— Justin Slaughter (@JBSDC) July 19, 2019
And not incidentally on that front how country will react if Trump or future Republican nominee wins EC but loses popular vote by 6 or 7 million votes, not 2 or so. How far can that rubber band stretch without consequence? https://t.co/HvxH9uvhlP
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) July 16, 2019
I think DEM would really be shooting themselves in the foot if they allowed CA to keep Trump off the ballot due to tax returns. If Trump won the EC and lost the popular vote just like that time, it would be easier for the GOP to use the state as a scapegoat for justifying the EC.
— Election Maps Co. (@ElectionMapsCo) July 19, 2019
I'd probably lean no. I certainly think Trump could win an election where he loses the popular vote by 3 points or even slightly more. That's basically what he did in 2016. (He won WI, the tipping-point state, with ~1 point to spare.) But I'm skeptical that he'd be the favorite. https://t.co/wh83h4sAUy
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 20, 2019
Translation: the 2020 Dem nominee might need to beat Trump by at least ~4% in the popular vote to defeat him in the Electoral College. https://t.co/Lxkx4Tzrlo
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 20, 2019
It’s amazing how many defenses of the Electoral College are based on plainly misdescribing how it works.
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) July 20, 2019
The senate over-represents the low-density states. The EC just over-represents whichever states happen to be close in any given year. https://t.co/UEAvS8s9SN
in 2016, Trump won 306 EVs to HRC’s 232
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) July 20, 2019
Morning Consult polling shows Trump w/net negative job approval in 8 states he won, totalling 107 EVs
if Trump loses just the 4 states where his net disapproval is 9 points or more (PA/MI/WI/IA), Dem would win w/284 EVs https://t.co/bf0auRPUbU
Sad! 