Washington Post redistricting analysis

Our MC article builds on our more detailed analysis of this cycle’s new maps in Publius: https://t.co/UfqR6XN303
— Chris Warshaw (@cwarshaw) September 27, 2022

Just a reminder that somewhere between 4–10 of the lean/likely GOP seats would be lean/likely *Democratic* seats but for #SCOTUS’s unsigned, unexplained stays of district court injunctions that had blocked congressional maps in Alabama and Louisiana — and their effects elsewhere. https://t.co/q7F9MCGvoZ
— Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) September 21, 2022

Update on gerrymandering in Ohio

The legislative-district maps in Ohio have been drawn so that many Republicans effectively cannot lose, all but insuring a veto-proof super-majority

As a result, most GOP incumbents only worry about the primaries—where hard-core partisans dominate https://t.co/xiFCvdK3G6
— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) August 14, 2022

NEW: Senate President @matthuffman1 wants to appeal Ohio's congressional map rejection to the U.S. Supreme Court https://t.co/kcgfcPHKem via @enquirer
— Jessie Balmert (@jbalmert) August 17, 2022

including the 132 legislators who are supposed to be drawing a new congressional map by Thursday

🫠 https://t.co/9H6YjKSitX
— Katy Shanahan (@KatyAShanahan) August 17, 2022

But on a deeper level, the case of Ohio has more to say about the state of American democracy more broadly. In particular, when it comes to voting and elections, Republicans cannot be trusted to act in good faith when they stand to reap partisan gains.https://t.co/TUbGWhylPG
— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) July 28, 2022

Three GOP members of the OH Sup Ct—the same 3 who keep fighting to uphold unconstitutional map—at the Trump Youngstown rally.

All three are up this November.

Vote all three out by supporting @JenniferBrunner @Jamison4Justice and @vote4JudgeZayas https://t.co/yNMSSk7Oso
— David Pepper (@DavidPepper) September 20, 2022

Update on New York gerrymandering

New York went through a lengthy redistricting process that ended with a map drawn by a court-appointed special master, which is why the primary was delayed until today. (It was supposed to have been held in June.) https://t.co/5iVU4s6r0b
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) August 24, 2022

NY state leaders want the independent redistricting commission — not the legislature — to redraw 2024 Assembly map. "Having the legislature draw the map … opens the door to shenanigans," says @mcpli: https://t.co/Q4V7qw2LVA
— Brennan Center (@BrennanCenter) August 10, 2022

A New York appeals court ruled that new congressional districts drawn by Democrats violated the state’s ban on partisan gerrymandering, partially upholding a lower-court ruling that would block the state from using the lines in this year’s elections. https://t.co/Jpoc8nzEvr
— The New York Times (@nytimes) April 21, 2022

Illegal Republican maps and other tweets on gerrymandering

"Using rejected maps in the four states…was likely to hand Republicans five to seven House seats that they otherwise would not have won." https://t.co/TxSnI9nrkZ
— Jennifer Mascia (@JenniferMascia) August 8, 2022

🚨

Why the GOP is willing to break the law to gerrymander, in 3 quick slides:

1) it allows them to maintain control of the heart of power in states (statehouses) and the US House even when they are in the minority in those states (all 4 of these states were blue in ‘12)

1/ pic.twitter.com/0OOzSczOec
— David Pepper (@DavidPepper) July 19, 2022

It looks like this decade’s redistricting battles ended in a draw. We break down what that means for each party’s paths to win control of the House in future elections: https://t.co/vQb80Wy2Sw
— Brennan Center (@BrennanCenter) August 6, 2022

I sound like a broken record but redistricting affects *everything*– every issue you're concerned about has, can or will be touched by redistricting.

Here's a cool @cnn interactive showing how new congressional maps shift voting power in every statehttps://t.co/YjpvQEtdIZ
— Dianne Gallagher (@DianneG) July 25, 2022

There are 22 majority-Black districts in the current Congress. Next year, there will be as few as nine. https://t.co/5qVh65Gv2l
— Philip Gourevitch (@PGourevitch) July 20, 2022

Gerrymander U.S.A.: "They shore up their strongholds and help eliminate any meaningful electoral competition. It’s the opposite of how representative democracy is supposed to work." Nicely done. https://t.co/YIiSlMjux9
— Dan Froomkin/PressWatchers.org ☮️ (@froomkin) July 13, 2022

More on gerrymandering in Utah

#NEW: UT lawmakers have filed a motion to stay the case challenging Utah's congressional map pending the outcome of Moore v. Harper. https://t.co/ixhOsJpU9b pic.twitter.com/RDMJddUxMR
— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) July 24, 2022

Utah’s new map has four solidly Republican districts and no Democratic, or even swing, districts. In this state, the Republican primary is all that matters. https://t.co/V02LeLHP28 pic.twitter.com/mEaIvPjUoB
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) June 29, 2022

A group of Utah voters argue that the Utah Legislature violated the state constitution by gerrymandering the congressional map to benefit Republicans and repealing voter-approved redistricting reforms that aimed to reduce gerrymandering.
— Democracy Docket (@DemocracyDocket) July 25, 2022

#NEW: Lawyers for the state of Utah are asking a judge to dismiss the lawsuit challenging the state's congressional map. https://t.co/axu1e1lypT
— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) May 8, 2022

Ohio will use a Republican map that violates their constitution for 2022

They’re getting away with it.

It is a remarkable state of affairs that 2022 congressional and legislative elections in Ohio will all be held under maps that courts have ruled are unconstitutional. But there you have it.
— Michael Li 李之樸 (@mcpli) July 19, 2022

So, to recap Ohio's 2022 election cycle:

May congressional primary: Used an unconstitutional gerrymandered map

August statehouse primary: Will use an unconstitutional gerrymandered map

November congressional/statehouse general: Will use unconstitutional gerrymandered maps
— Tyler Buchanan (@Tylerjoelb) July 19, 2022

As expected, OH Supreme Court throws out GOP map as an illegal gerrymander – but it’s too late to redraw in time for 2022. Expect Republicans to draw a slightly different gerrymander in time for 2024, when the court’s balance of power could shift right. https://t.co/gv3GUxMFnb
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 19, 2022

Ohio's state legislative and congressional maps are now all ordered to be redrawn for 2024.
— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) July 19, 2022

🚨BREAKING: Ohio Supreme Court STRIKES DOWN congressional map. Court orders legislature to adopt new map within 30 days. A victory for the voters of Ohio. Congrats to @RedistrictFdn and the @EliasLawGroup team who litigated this important case.https://t.co/n5hEoet1de
— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) July 19, 2022

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1554122295907590144?s=11&t=phjzKnacwHHPdsSuRcGlNw

Another redistricting deadline coming up, no action expected from Ohio legislature https://t.co/rrnCF4qoyb via @OhioCapJournal
— Susan Tebben (@susantebben) August 9, 2022

Gerrymandering – final 2022 results

The Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act and won’t stop racist gerrymandering. Bad news.

With this final blow to minority voting rights advocates & Democrats, all 50 states now have an operative congressional map in place for 2022. https://t.co/4LdOZxBNpO
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 28, 2022

Final 2022 redistricting scorecard: @CookPolitical estimates a GOP gain of three seats from new maps *alone.* That was almost exactly our pre-redistricting forecast. But it's a seven (!) seat swing against Dems vs. our early March forecast. https://t.co/kk9BwpwARX pic.twitter.com/ptgearORo2
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 28, 2022

The once-a-decade process of redrawing the country's congressional districts has given Republicans a major edge — but that's not the only consequence. https://t.co/ekkF1SHIMm
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) June 29, 2022

Hard to overstate what a radical step this would be, given that many swing-state legislatures are gerrymandered in ways that self-perpetuate GOP control. Would decimate checks and balances. https://t.co/ozO9KoGlmN
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 30, 2022

Update on gerrymandering in Louisiana 6/18/22

Story: Federal judge will draw new Louisiana congressional map with second Black district after Legislature fails to act. Lawmakers punt after four days of six-day Special Session #lagov #lalege https://t.co/MwfjKXPf7v via @theadvertiser
— Greg Hilburn (@GregHilburn1) June 18, 2022

New: Louisiana officials ask Supreme Court to restore GOP-drawn congressional map that includes just one heavily Black district out of six. Federal district judge ordered creation of second one. Scotus previously reinstated Alabama map in similar circumstances.
— Greg Stohr (@GregStohr) June 17, 2022

Schexnayder has filed a redistricting bill that retains only one majority-Black district, which would defy the federal court order. Democrats are objecting.
— Wesley Muller (@WesleySMuller) June 15, 2022

Gov. John Bel Edwards on today's ruling in the congressional redistricting lawsuit. https://t.co/ITfie3lr6k
— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) June 12, 2022

Wow. Just goes to show how clear the *current* VRA interpretation is, even to an uber-conservative court like the 5th Circuit. https://t.co/WX1gxtu0yA
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) June 12, 2022

#NEW: The Louisiana Secretary of State has appealed the decision. https://t.co/wHBydLu222
— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) June 6, 2022

It will never end https://t.co/MxxTzLXXEc pic.twitter.com/T9lqmDlbEu
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) June 6, 2022

Update on gerrymandering in Louisiana

🚨BREAKING: Fifth Circuit DENIES Louisiana's motion to stay redistricting Voting Rights Act decision pending appeal. Redraw of congressional map will proceed as appeal is expedited.

A big victory for Louisiana voters, @RedistrictFdn and @EliasLawGroup.https://t.co/4VlYo3Rq5m pic.twitter.com/Uz69ScWUby
— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) June 12, 2022

Governor John Bel Edwards has called a special session of Louisiana’s Legislature to redraw Louisiana’s congressional map.

The Special Session will begin on June 15, 2022 and must adjourn by 6 p.m. on June 20, 2022. https://t.co/tIgw94w5nG pic.twitter.com/oABJef6RfX
— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) June 7, 2022

A federal judge in Louisiana has blocked the use of newly drawn congressional maps that included only one mostly Black district, and she ordered lawmakers to adopt a new plan by June 20.
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) June 7, 2022

Would be a huge win for Dems/voting rights advocates, but given the makeup of the courts hearing the certain appeal, I'm skeptical it will last. https://t.co/tZzCVWQAhK
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 6, 2022

Experts on impact of redistricting

The bottom line is that blue state judges supported fairness and red state judges supported Republican gerrymandering. It’s not an even fight.

Hard to overstate how big a setback the 2022 redistricting cycle has been for nonwhite voting strength. No new majority-minority seats created in TX, AL, SC or LA (pending) despite sufficient population, and existing Black VRA seats dismantled/weakened in FL, MI, NC et. al.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 20, 2022

It's been a long redistricting cycle, but I summed it up as best I could in my big redistricting overview article out today: https://t.co/shdTUDM1is
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) June 15, 2022

More from @FiveThirtyEight on how Democrats' sue-to-blue strategy failed & Republicans won redistricting.

"Republicans … gained ground from redistricting: The GOP is positioned for a net gain of [3-5] seats in 2022 just thanks to the new lines alone."
https://t.co/H5Zp4UkO2U
— National Republican Redistricting Committee (@GOPRedistrict) June 2, 2022

Your tweet should note that it is Republicans who have created the underrepresentation of people of color in FL, AL, and LA.
— Harris Levy (@HarrisL585) June 15, 2022

ALL 50 STATES ARE DONE WITH REDISTRICTING! 🎉 pic.twitter.com/nI8bjHuYdf
— Eric Stutz 🇺🇸 (@eric_stutzman5) May 31, 2022

Under the new congressional maps, the tipping-point seat (#NC13) has a 538 partisan lean of R+2.5, meaning the House has a 2.5-point GOP bias. Under the old maps, it was R+2.3.
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 31, 2022

Biden states w/ commission/court maps: AZ, CA, CO, CT, HI, MI, MN, NJ, NY, PA, VA, WA, WI
Dem gerrymanders: IL, MD, MA, NV, NM, OR, RI

Trump states w/ commission/court maps: ID, IA, MT, NC
GOP gerrymanders: AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, NE, OH, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 24, 2022

Pretty good look at the net effect of redistricting strategies. Rs focused primarily on reinforcing light red seats to consolidate into safe territory, leading to a big drop in competitive Lean R type seats. Ds played more offense where they could, adding 10 in the D+2-7 range. https://t.co/6M9ttDS1q1
— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) June 9, 2022