Update on gerrymandering in Louisiana

🚨BREAKING: Fifth Circuit DENIES Louisiana's motion to stay redistricting Voting Rights Act decision pending appeal. Redraw of congressional map will proceed as appeal is expedited.

A big victory for Louisiana voters, @RedistrictFdn and @EliasLawGroup.https://t.co/4VlYo3Rq5m pic.twitter.com/Uz69ScWUby
— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) June 12, 2022

Governor John Bel Edwards has called a special session of Louisiana’s Legislature to redraw Louisiana’s congressional map.

The Special Session will begin on June 15, 2022 and must adjourn by 6 p.m. on June 20, 2022. https://t.co/tIgw94w5nG pic.twitter.com/oABJef6RfX
— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) June 7, 2022

A federal judge in Louisiana has blocked the use of newly drawn congressional maps that included only one mostly Black district, and she ordered lawmakers to adopt a new plan by June 20.
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) June 7, 2022

Would be a huge win for Dems/voting rights advocates, but given the makeup of the courts hearing the certain appeal, I'm skeptical it will last. https://t.co/tZzCVWQAhK
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 6, 2022

Experts on impact of redistricting

The bottom line is that blue state judges supported fairness and red state judges supported Republican gerrymandering. It’s not an even fight.

Hard to overstate how big a setback the 2022 redistricting cycle has been for nonwhite voting strength. No new majority-minority seats created in TX, AL, SC or LA (pending) despite sufficient population, and existing Black VRA seats dismantled/weakened in FL, MI, NC et. al.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 20, 2022

It's been a long redistricting cycle, but I summed it up as best I could in my big redistricting overview article out today: https://t.co/shdTUDM1is
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) June 15, 2022

More from @FiveThirtyEight on how Democrats' sue-to-blue strategy failed & Republicans won redistricting.

"Republicans … gained ground from redistricting: The GOP is positioned for a net gain of [3-5] seats in 2022 just thanks to the new lines alone."
https://t.co/H5Zp4UkO2U
— National Republican Redistricting Committee (@GOPRedistrict) June 2, 2022

Your tweet should note that it is Republicans who have created the underrepresentation of people of color in FL, AL, and LA.
— Harris Levy (@HarrisL585) June 15, 2022

ALL 50 STATES ARE DONE WITH REDISTRICTING! 🎉 pic.twitter.com/nI8bjHuYdf
— Eric Stutz 🇺🇸 (@eric_stutzman5) May 31, 2022

Under the new congressional maps, the tipping-point seat (#NC13) has a 538 partisan lean of R+2.5, meaning the House has a 2.5-point GOP bias. Under the old maps, it was R+2.3.
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 31, 2022

Biden states w/ commission/court maps: AZ, CA, CO, CT, HI, MI, MN, NJ, NY, PA, VA, WA, WI
Dem gerrymanders: IL, MD, MA, NV, NM, OR, RI

Trump states w/ commission/court maps: ID, IA, MT, NC
GOP gerrymanders: AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, NE, OH, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 24, 2022

Pretty good look at the net effect of redistricting strategies. Rs focused primarily on reinforcing light red seats to consolidate into safe territory, leading to a big drop in competitive Lean R type seats. Ds played more offense where they could, adding 10 in the D+2-7 range. https://t.co/6M9ttDS1q1
— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) June 9, 2022

Update on gerrymandering in New Hampshire

#BREAKING: The New Hampshire Supreme Court has adopted the congressional map drawn by Special Master Persily. pic.twitter.com/JSNNlQuHew
— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) May 31, 2022

Last week, NH Gov. Chris Sununu came out against the legislature's latest congressional map, throwing NH redistricting to the courts. https://t.co/eOjhkgfrJT
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 31, 2022

🚨BREAKING: New Hampshire Supreme Court adopts new congressional map. A victory for New Hampshire voters and @RedistrictFdn!https://t.co/zTJpshanwq
— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) May 31, 2022

On Friday, New Hampshire Republicans proposed a new congressional map. Up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: https://t.co/Ul0g4m4VAM pic.twitter.com/mmgrwxkOje
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 16, 2022

Gerrymandering has reduced competitive seats in Congress and state legislatures

There won’t be many competitive districts left after this round of gerrymandering. https://t.co/X2stI15mWj
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) December 1, 2021

Interesting tidbit: Out of nearly 4,300 state legislative seats in 34 states, @CNalysis has just 575 of them ranked as remotely competitive (ranging from Likely D to Likely R).
— Charles Gaba 🇺🇦 (@charles_gaba) May 31, 2022

NEW @CityLab: Nearly 40% of Republican members of Congress in suburban districts are in competitive races this fall, @Richard_Florida & I write. Read more — and see how I categorized every district’s mix of rural/urban/suburban: https://t.co/CqQ0rqNKc9 pic.twitter.com/C2IOkDwDDb
— David H. Montgomery (@dhmontgomery) October 5, 2018

David Wasserman, Cook Political Report's redistricting expert, says the biggest casualty of gerrymandering is "competitive seats."

"That likely means that we're going to see more Marjorie Taylor Greenes or Donald Trump-style candidates elected from safe seats," Wasserman added. pic.twitter.com/d5D3feBZDN
— CNN Newsroom (@CNNnewsroom) December 15, 2021

Update on gerrymandering in Ohio

BREAKING: The Ohio Supreme Court has declared the most recent congressional map invalid, ordering a new map within 30 days.
— Susan Tebben (@susantebben) July 19, 2022

Republican federal judges are letting Ohio use a map that violates their state constitution.

This is a victory for Ohio’s Republicans and their strategy of simply gumming up the works long enough to find a federal court that was sick of the whole business and surrendered. https://t.co/bZEdR4Raxs
— Charles P. Pierce (@CharlesPPierce) June 2, 2022

The Ohio Supreme Court has a 4-3 Republican majority, and it was a rare moment of a GOP-led institution reining in some GOP norm erosion. But now a GOP-led federal court is making sure that doesn't happen. https://t.co/hNRqvjWE1n
— Jake M. Grumbach (@JakeMGrumbach) May 27, 2022

Federal judges block Ohio’s Supreme Court from enforcing the state’s anti-gerrymandering provisions.

Saying voters can punish the party that gerrymandered the maps to prevent voters from punishing them is so transparently laughable. https://t.co/xq6YdfTIxd
— Taniel (@Taniel) May 28, 2022

Two Trump appointees and Federalist Society members dispense with federalism. https://t.co/aKQY1MEoEF
— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) May 27, 2022

“5 separate times, OHans watched as DeWine, LaRose, & other high ranking Rs knowingly violated our state constitution in order to rig Statehouse district maps to help their party win elections. CJ O’Connor is right to name their actions as a ‘stunning rebuke of the rule of law.’” https://t.co/AIo97sj29B
— Katy Shanahan (@KatyAShanahan) May 25, 2022

BREAKING: Legislative maps still unconstitutional, @OHSupremeCourt says again in 4-3 ruling. https://t.co/WiBL6WE8l8
— Laura Bischoff (@lbischoff) May 25, 2022

Breaking: The Ohio Supreme Court has denied a motion from the challengers to Ohio House and Senate maps to hold Republican members of the Ohio Redistricting Commission in contempt for approving and submitting maps that had already been ruled unconstitutional.
— Karen Kasler (@karenkasler) May 25, 2022

More tweets on gerrymandering in Missouri

After months of stalemate, Missouri Gov. Mike Parson has finally signed a new congressional map into law. https://t.co/LxZXRXJZCx pic.twitter.com/nYD9Ulmoii
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 18, 2022

New: Gov. Mike Parson (R) signs Missouri's next congressional map into law, locking in the current 6R-2D breakdown after a lengthy GOP stalemate. Only three states left to finalize plans: FL, NH and NY. https://t.co/g3waPtUFik
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 18, 2022

Redistricting is going badly for Democrats

Republican judges support gerrymandering in red states while Democratic judges are aiming for fairness in blue states. I am totally in favor of ending gerrymandering but Democrats shouldn’t stop if Republicans won’t.

Early redistricting wins for Democrats are collapsing across the map, deepening the party's fears of a rout in November.@Redistrict tells Axios: "The legal setbacks and losses Democrats have suffered in the last three months have been staggering."https://t.co/KNtez8m8Kj
— Axios (@axios) May 22, 2022

And…now GOP-drawn gerrymanders have been upheld/enacted in KS and MO, though Dems did get a court win on one FL district (we'll see on appeal). https://t.co/yMhjMK65Cn
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 19, 2022

So to recap:

*NY: Flawed process but ends up with good maps because of courts.

*VA: Flawed process but ends up with good maps because of courts.

*MI: Good process + good maps.

*OH: Flawed process and trouble getting to good maps because political branches control remedy.
— Michael Li 李之樸 (@mcpli) May 21, 2022

House Democrats scramble after redistricting lessens competitive edge

https://t.co/2lndhCFKiD
— Mike Walker (@New_Narrative) May 21, 2022

Democrats had a really strong Dec-Feb in redistricting battles. But the last few months' string of legal losses/setbacks – in AL, MD, OH, WI, NY, KS and perhaps FL (we'll see) – has been staggering.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 20, 2022

Redistricting update: by my math, if the final states shake out how we expect, 227/435 House seats will have voted for Biden under new lines, up from 224/435 today.

And, 212 House seats would be more pro-Biden than the nation as a whole, up from 207 today.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 19, 2022

An updating tracker of proposed congressional maps — and whether they might benefit Democrats or Republicans in the 2022 midterms and beyond.

More from @FiveThirtyEight: https://t.co/Nyd5TYD0yl
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) May 17, 2022

For the past few months, Democrats believed they had dodged a bullet on redistricting.

But they just found out that the bullet might have hit its intended target, after all, @paulwaldman1 and @ThePlumLineGS write https://t.co/uHWXfPjQ57
— Washington Post Opinions (@PostOpinions) April 30, 2022

Update on gerrymandering in New York

New York's new congressional map—released late Friday night—is now up and analyzed on FiveThirtyEight: https://t.co/nMAcCXtGSZ pic.twitter.com/uDdxvNKegX
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 23, 2022

A New York state court formally approved a new congressional map late Friday that could cause chaos for Democrats — paving the way for losses this fall and forcing some of the party’s most prominent incumbents to face off in primary matches. https://t.co/tJJsCcJuiP
— The New York Times (@nytimes) May 21, 2022

The Republican plaintiffs in the NY redistricting lawsuit have released their proposed edits to the special master's plan. Up and analyzed on 538: https://t.co/iCGiQVrSxr pic.twitter.com/tynfuH0XWg
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 19, 2022

“Letters have poured in from around the state, but some of the most specific complaints are coming from New York City, where some complained the maps would divide culturally united neighborhoods and dilute the voting power of communities of color” https://t.co/fJ2zVD2xY6
— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) May 19, 2022

If this becomes the final map, not a stretch to say New York will have the swingiest congressional map in the nation. 23D – 3R or 14D – 12R as the possible range is enormous. https://t.co/vNwnPFYyKH
— Ben Williams (@ElectionBen) May 16, 2022

Then, today's big redistricting news: New York's special master has unveiled his draft of the state's congressional map. https://t.co/z5OEUFtOjh pic.twitter.com/NEVGHbS97o
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 16, 2022

The newly proposed New York map is pretty close to a best case outcome for Democrats, with just five Trump districts (v. four on the previously enacted map).
Many competitive Biden-tilting CDs, but all voted more for Biden than nation as a whole.https://t.co/jPIDarNM8R
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) May 16, 2022

Update on gerrymandering in Kansas

The Kansas Supreme Court said "yup, racist gerrymandering is totes cool and super constitutional" https://t.co/7s3nl4bDPd
— Dustin (@ks_hare) May 18, 2022

BREAKING: The Kansas Supreme Court upholds the state's congressional redistricting map, issuing a landmark decision in Kansas that says gerrymandering is not a violation of the state constitution. Will have more soon. #ksleg
— Dylan Lysen (@DylanLysen) May 18, 2022

#NEW: The KS Supreme Court has approved Kansas's state legislative maps.
— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) May 18, 2022

Oral argument was conducted in the Kansas gerrymandering case Rivera v. Schwab.
KS voters & @loud_light, with the support of the NRF, effectively argued that the enacted congressional map is a partisan gerrymander & dilutes the voting power of minorities. https://t.co/UEZfj0JBRj pic.twitter.com/7V7zyx3xYB
— National Redistricting Foundation (@RedistrictFdn) May 17, 2022

KS Supreme Court is wrestling with the question of whether the guarantees in the state constitution's Bill of Rights preclude partisan gerrymandering in congressional districts and, if it does, how improper partisan gerrymandering is defined. #ksleg https://t.co/s7y5jQopWC
— John Hanna (@APjdhanna) May 16, 2022

The Kansas decision, the text of it, is fucking strange. pic.twitter.com/DSrmT5EaEK
— Ryan Brune (@BruneElections) April 25, 2022

4R-0D…whew, they really tried it https://t.co/PH0Uq7Awuk
— Democracy is in Trouble 💚💕 (@ProfTolson) April 25, 2022

Gerrymandering in New Hampshire

This map would polarize the state's two seats: #NH01 from Biden +6 to +1 and #NH02 from Biden +9 to +14, potentially depriving GOP of winning #NH02. Will Gov. Chris Sununu (R) sign in? We'll find out. https://t.co/d3GR5RAK0n
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 14, 2022

The New Hampshire Supreme Court has announced that it will impose a "least-change" congressional map by the end of the month if the legislature & governor don't agree first. Let's see if this scares them straight. https://t.co/eOjhkgfrJT
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 12, 2022

The New Hampshire state House has passed this congressional map, its second attempt to draw a better map for Rs. Gov. Chris Sununu still isn't on board, though. https://t.co/Bw1IpBNxah pic.twitter.com/uq0pyYb7Au
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) May 5, 2022

Despite opposition from Gov. Chris Sununu (R), this congressional map has passed committee in the New Hampshire state House. https://t.co/Bw1IpBNxah pic.twitter.com/SrbnWQx2Fs
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) April 27, 2022

Republican legislators have proposed a new congressional map for New Hampshire in an attempt to break the logjam! Up and analyzed on 538: https://t.co/Bw1IpBNxah pic.twitter.com/eHB1WQ4mVJ
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) April 25, 2022

Here's why New Hampshire redistricting is at an impasse: Sununu wants a map that can elect two Republicans but the legislature keeps trying to tell him that's not possible anymore.
— Drew Savicki (@DrewSav) April 25, 2022

Governor Sununu vetoed independent redistricting twice and it is looking increasingly likely they will need to call in a special master to draw the New Hampshire congressional map.
— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) April 24, 2022