Georgia voter suppression update -10/25/18

Our research shows that Georgia, in fact, purged twice as many voters between the 2012 and 2016 elections as it did between 2008 and 2012. #ProtectTheVote https://t.co/tNL1xIw40w

— Brennan Center (@BrennanCenter) October 25, 2018

Georgia Has a Special Hotline for Confused Voters. It Gets 300 Calls a Day. https://t.co/kkxwfNDe3b pic.twitter.com/CEmoNvfVf8

— Mother Jones (@MotherJones) October 25, 2018

Wrote about this yesterday(linked), but basically the only reason we know about any irregularities in Georgia at all is because of lawsuits and vigilance by private citizens https://t.co/Ns86ETbyBH

— Dad (@fivefifths) October 25, 2018

Stacey Abrams, to @EJDionne:

“If we turn out unlikely voters, if we turn out those who aren’t typically seen as part of the midterm electorate, then I will win this election.”

Good piece on the stakes in Georgia: https://t.co/vPXBPWKeGN

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) October 25, 2018

Breaking: Handing a victory to voting rights activists, a federal judge Thursday issued a restraining order to prohibit elections officials in Georgia from disqualifying absentee ballots on the basis of signature discrepancies.

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) October 25, 2018

BREAKING: Federal Court in Georgia enjoins the state’s signature mismatch law. Signature match laws, in general, are used to disenfranchise voters—particularly minority and young voters. Congrats and thanks to the @ACLU for their great work.

— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) October 24, 2018

with its deadlocked race for governor, GA is conducting a real-time experiment in the effect of voting restrictions. Lab conditions are ideal. my @cnbc column: https://t.co/l246nxjbsq

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) October 24, 2018

BREAKING: Judge: Georgia election officials must stop rejecting absentee ballots and applications because of mismatched signature.

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) October 24, 2018

The lack of good faith on Kemp’s part is breathtaking. But we now have Kemp on tape saying if everyone who has a right to vote actually votes, he’s in trouble. At least he acknowledges he cannot win in a fair and open election https://t.co/5R1ItnXvSc

— Jennifer Rubin (@JRubinBlogger) October 25, 2018

The Georgia NAACP filed a complaint Tuesday with state election officials alleging that some votes cast for Stacy Abrams registered for Brian Kemp. https://t.co/Po9BHDnT2N

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) October 25, 2018

Georgia's governor race is razor-tight & likely to go to a Dec. 4 runoff. This is why Brian Kemp (R) is doing everything within his power as chief election administrator to suppress as many black voters as possible in his own election vs. Stacey Abrams (D) https://t.co/K0gxWLs0EL https://t.co/tW2XmvImOP

— Stephen Wolf (@PoliticsWolf) October 24, 2018

Georgia Republicans are subverting democracy to stop a coalition of minority voters and white liberals from replacing them, writes @michelleinbklyn https://t.co/K3RUJcbwJ7

— NYT Opinion (@nytopinion) October 12, 2018

The voter suppression in Georgia is even worse than previously thought. https://t.co/tHLJbXJa2R

— Jeet Heer (@HeerJeet) October 19, 2018

Wim Laven arrived to his Georgia polling site unsure of voter suppression allegations. Then he waited 2 hours in the sun; saw one person in line treated for heat exhaustion; watched a 2nd collapse, yet refuse to be taken to the hospital so he could vote.https://t.co/T1OrO4NxZ4

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 19, 2018

I'm not sure there is anything as fundamentally unpatriotic as attempting to prevent your fellow citizens for voting. https://t.co/XT9HVhtFOg

— Susan Hennessey (@Susan_Hennessey) October 19, 2018

Analysis | Georgia’s ‘exact match’ law could disenfranchise 909,540 eligible voters, my research finds https://t.co/sTWd66fmf4

— Glenn Kessler (@GlennKesslerWP) October 20, 2018

The Democratic Party in GA says its voter protection hotline is receiving more than 300 calls every day. Brian Kemp denies intentional suppression, but current fear and confusion is palpable https://t.co/nxtcxhTNfR

— Astead (@AsteadWesley) October 19, 2018

Brian Kemp has been successful at making it harder for eligible Georgians to vote. #GApol https://t.co/B6022lZIMd

— Let America Vote (@letamericavote) October 20, 2018

They're trying to steal this election. https://t.co/M0xGiZhZkH

— John Stange (@williamdingiv) October 21, 2018

Concerns growing over rejection of mail-in ballots in Georgia, other states. https://t.co/r9gAUZkqeF

— NBC News (@NBCNews) October 30, 2018

2018 elections update – 10/21/18

How Republicans could keep the House

Wisconsin’s Walker confronts dire political outlook

Even if Sri Kulkarni doesn’t succeed, his campaign will leave an infrastructure in place for the future: from waves of new Democratic voters locally, to interns and organizers schooled in community engagement who can replicate it anywhere in America. https://t.co/A8nfqCQe9N

— The Intercept (@theintercept) October 21, 2018

"These voters want someone who will keep Trump’s worst impulses in check — and they no longer have faith that Republicans will do that." https://t.co/xa6LLL11ci

— Swing Left (@swingleft) October 21, 2018

In Nevada, a midterm clash between newfound Republican organization and organized Democrats’ renewed enthusiasm https://t.co/C6qbJKWAWA

— Post Politics (@postpolitics) October 21, 2018

Why the 2018 Election Won't "All Come Down to Turnout":https://t.co/DAZ4sZgXYn

— Dave Hopkins (@DaveAHopkins) October 21, 2018

During and since 2016, Ds have focused more on identity issues and Trump criticism, diluting core economic message. The public is noticing (though harder for out party in good economy). https://t.co/TtVGKInQCm

— Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan) October 21, 2018

in new NBC/WSJ poll, education effect among white voters is powerful

college degree moves white men to +4 D (from +42 R without degree)

college degree moves white women to +33 D (from +8 R without degree)https://t.co/WZov67BCEL

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) October 21, 2018

So, this is another poll where Democrats are doing better among likely voters than registered voters. We were seeing a fair amount of that in polls this summer, but less in September, when R enthusiasm had seemed to improve. Now more pollsters are showing a D turnout edge again. https://t.co/Aso3xtPPqq

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 21, 2018

Trump's approval rating is now 47%, the highest of his presidency, per WSJ-NBC poll. Makes the midterms a "barnburner," per pollster who conducted the survey. https://t.co/c94khZf1tg

— Josh Dawsey (@jdawsey1) October 21, 2018

House polls are noisy, but the Upshot/Siena numbers were pretty bad for the GOP this week after having been a bit more equivocal in early October. Even in the Senate, there were some brighter numbers for Dems in a few races (e.g. IN) this week, but probably too little/too late.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 21, 2018

A few weeks ago, the GOP improved from being modest favorites to fairly clear favorites to hold the Senate. That's a *big* deal and would be a nice accomplishment in what looks more likely than not to be a rather blue year otherwise (e.g. in House and Gov races).

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 21, 2018

Great story https://t.co/gwg2rosZSo

— Glenn Thrush (@GlennThrush) October 21, 2018

To combat voter suppression in Dodge City, we’re raising funds and recruiting volunteers to make sure all eligible Dodge City voters are able to vote and have their vote counted. Support our Dodge City GOTV effort ➡️ https://t.co/gSH1qx0DgS

— Kansas Dems (@KansasDems) October 20, 2018

Look, we all know what he means by "unqualified": it's running for office while black. https://t.co/niebYbUi0d

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 20, 2018

.@RepMaxineWaters: Congress has not done enough to ensure the safety & security of these elections. So, they're in. They've already started to undermine some of our campaigns… they've not been able to undermine the actual election systems… it's about creating division #AMJoy pic.twitter.com/TfbYvsNp0E

— AM Joy w/Joy Reid (@amjoyshow) October 21, 2018

On Election Day, November 6th, Lyft is offering rides to the polling place for HALF OFF and Uber is offering FREE RIDES to your polling place!

No excuses! Get out and vote!#SundayMorning #SundayMotivation pic.twitter.com/bLlDJFMeeQ

— Brian Gay (@brian2596) October 21, 2018

Clark County, Nevada set a record on the first day of early voting in the state.

The Saturday turnout of nearly 22,000 as of 3 PM was already over 4,000 more than the previous record for the first day of early voting during a midterm. https://t.co/VUliiAHFVn

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 21, 2018

Election Day is less than three weeks away, but many Americans are already voting. Here's everything you need to know about what could be very eventful midterm elections: https://t.co/V6cAFPvIHC pic.twitter.com/6WGdG0znjE

— ABC News (@ABC) October 21, 2018

It is fair to conclude that the GOP has made voter suppression a central part of their election strategy for 2018. We can assume this will continue in the future.

— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) October 21, 2018

Ginning up the deplorati base two weeks from Election Day by trading on the humanity of others. This is no different from a century and a half of picking the pockets of white Southerners while telling them they will always rate higher than black folk. #AsLongAsSomeoneIsUnderYou https://t.co/a4DmqFuYyw

— David Simon (@AoDespair) October 21, 2018

"Her fighter-pilot bio and national fundraising base pushed her past Jim Gray in the primary, and she seems to have a celebrity aura that has insulated her from one of the heaviest, harshest and falsest barrages of attack ads ever seen in a KY election." https://t.co/B97FX9Zqq0

— Democratic Coalition (@TheDemCoalition) October 21, 2018

Harry Enten helps you navigate CNN's new tool, The Forecast, which uses a vast amount of polling data and voter information to give you daily midterm election predictions https://t.co/CTjRjAHGf3 pic.twitter.com/rxbeWr1dLD

— CNN (@CNN) October 21, 2018

ICYMI: Democrats need a two-seat pickup to retake the U.S. Senate, but their efforts seem to be fading in the home stretch. Follow @ ReutersTV's midterm election coverage https://t.co/9Ly39VzcNQ pic.twitter.com/IaBKLP06gq

— Reuters Top News (@Reuters) October 21, 2018

The hutzpah of the GOP on health care this election is stunning. I’m listening right now to NY Rep. John Faso on NPR claim he’s against ACA repeal.

He voted FOR the repeal bill!!!! It ended insurance for 30m Americans!

Does the think his constituents are so stupid they forgot?

— Chris Murphy (@ChrisMurphyCT) October 20, 2018

from new NBC/WSJ poll,
America’s mid-term election in a nutshell:

it’s white men without college degrees (+42 R) against white women college graduates (+33 D), Latinos (+40 D) and African-Americans (+70 D)https://t.co/WZov67BCEL

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) October 21, 2018

More concerns about Republicans accepting 2018 election results if they lose

I am very concerned (and have said this before) that neither side will accept the election results if they lose, especially if the House total is very close. The big problem is the Republicans. They are suppressing votes that are probably Democratic while making fantastic claims about voter fraud. Trump is back to falsely claiming illegal immigrants are voting (like he did in 2016).

Democrats have valid concerns about voter suppression. Republicans aren’t even hiding what they are doing in Georgia and North Dakota. What if Abrams (D) loses the Georgia governor’s race by 1%? Can we believe the election was fair? I won’t.

Now, we knew about Russian meddling. I am sure this is to help Trump though he would claim otherwise. Russia wouldn’t continue to interfere in our elections if they didn’t think they were getting results for their efforts.

A criminal complaint filed Friday charges a Russian national, employed by a firm linked to Vladimir Putin and Russian intelligence, with helping direct interference in the 2018 midterm elections, writes @natashabertrand: https://t.co/KurPsAKVR0

— The Atlantic (@TheAtlantic) October 20, 2018

On the other side, Trump is throwing voter fraud out there just like he did in 2016. This is nonsense – there are very few instances of actual voter fraud.

Look at what Paul Krugman said:

If Democrats don't at least take the House, God help us. But even if they do, we'll be facing a nightmarish political scene. Republicans will claim that the election was stolen, and deny the majority's legitimacy 1/ pic.twitter.com/M21pkFiIOw

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 21, 2018

They'll also probably abuse executive power in many other ways. And they'll use claims of voter fraud to justify their disregard of the law and Constitution. If you don't think this is going to happen, you haven't been paying attention 3/

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 21, 2018

In this interview with Carl Bernstein, at around the 4:00 mark, Bernstein says he has talked to White House staffers who said people are looking into legal challenges of the election results if they are close and declaring the election is illegitimate.

"We have had presidents in the past who have lied … but what we have never had is a President of the United States who uses lying and untruth as a basic method to promote his policies," says @CarlBernstein pic.twitter.com/dL09dVsYMF

— Reliable Sources (@ReliableSources) October 21, 2018

This has more on what Bernstein said. From his comments quoted in the article:

“I talked to people in touch with the White House on Friday who believe that, if the congressional midterms are very close and the Democrats were to win by five or seven seats, that Trump is already talking about how to throw legal challenges into the courts, sow confusion, declare a victory actually, and say that the election’s been illegitimate — that is really under discussion in the White House,” Bernstein said…”

Republicans even claim illegal aliens are going to vote (and for Democrats, of course)!

This quote gives me a great amount of anxiety, given how much this president thrives on chaos. https://t.co/IuSHRFdiJD pic.twitter.com/fg6HqcoABW

— Alvin Chang (@alv9n) October 25, 2018

Kemp in his closing says that Abrams is asking "for illegals to vote for her in this race."

— Gideon Resnick (@GideonResnick) October 23, 2018

This fcking guy https://t.co/TkxXbBg5a5

— Charles P. Pierce (@CharlesPPierce) October 15, 2018

One more because it’s important: Trump, bringing back a major and important lie, says illegal immigrants are voting in large numbers in California: “They vote anyway. They’re not supposed to.”

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 23, 2018

Trump: "They demand to be able to vote, the illegals. You get to California, there's so many illegals voting there. There's so much voter fraud. Voter ID folks, voter ID."

None of this is true. pic.twitter.com/AHU7VPppcI

— Christina Wilkie (@christinawilkie) October 23, 2018

Trump warned there will be "violence" if the Republicans lose their majority in Congress as a result of the 2018 midterms, in a recording now heard by CNN.https://t.co/vIJqfMJWR5

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 27, 2018

Texas' election isn't happening in this century https://t.co/bepsHimZPU

— GQ Magazine (@GQMagazine) October 27, 2018

In the last week, we've gotten a record number of tips in Dallas County of voter intimidation. The county elections official there told us it's the worst she's seen in decades. https://t.co/QQhSSP98b8

— Electionland (@electionland) October 26, 2018

Trump: “Donnelly is trying to steal the election? Isn’t that what Russia did!?” https://t.co/7tcm6QGNrP

— Olivia Nuzzi (@Olivianuzzi) November 3, 2018

It’s going to be ugly.

North Carolina has 20% fewer early voting places than in 2014

North Carolina Republican legislature in close contest with Georgia Secretary of State for Jim Crow Award of 2018, https://t.co/XKhFQYbdb3

— Norman Ornstein (@NormOrnstein) October 18, 2018

These are the folks who limited the governor’s power when a Democrat was elected.

2018 elections update – 10/18/18

Democratic challengers in House races outraised at least 92 Republican incumbents, and more than 60 Democratic candidates in the House hauled in more than $1 million for the quarter. https://t.co/ytW7avpnig

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) October 18, 2018

It's probable we would have gotten to something very close to this place anyway-given both the long-term trends toward more parliamentary elections & how Trump's polarizing presidency magnifies those tendencies-but K certainly appeared to accelerate/intensify the process. https://t.co/4f841VGaOw

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) October 18, 2018

Facebook "says it has hired thousands of new moderators, invested in artificial intelligence, enlisted the help of former US intelligence officials, and brought in new rules for political advertising — all in an effort to tackle a misinformation crisis." https://t.co/dZuIcRqreh

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) October 18, 2018

A hobby horse race of mine :). https://t.co/TFZqqxAaQE

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 17, 2018

"If Republicans win, there is plenty to fear — not just more of the same, but much more and much worse," writes @JesseCharlesLee. https://t.co/1MM9Wjkelj

— HuffPost (@HuffPost) October 18, 2018

.@fordm on how a blue wave could wipe out voter suppression, too: https://t.co/sCL6vPi7bV pic.twitter.com/pLanQ7Bki8

— The New Republic (@newrepublic) October 18, 2018

NEW UPDATE:

until it drew attention today, #GAgov nominee Brian Kemp's official Secretary of State website featured an early voting explainer video in which a little white boy casts his ballot, while a black girl gets rebuffed for lacking ID.https://t.co/3KoR4v4VyQ pic.twitter.com/ik1ZUisnDi

— Jesse Lehrich (@JesseLehrich) October 18, 2018

Leading PAY DIRT: Duncan Hunter enlisted 3 fmr USMC generals to tar his opponent as a terrorist. All three are now defense industry lobbyists with matters before Hunter's House committees, and the congressman has gone to bat for their clients in the past https://t.co/Nf3iu1rRX3

— Lachlan Markay (@lachlan) October 18, 2018

Some better Senate polling for Democrats over the last couple days. Although tbh they're in a pretty deep hole so it's going to take a lot of good polling to pull them out of it. https://t.co/n2QjFRwGxw

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 18, 2018

NEW: In the Wisconsin governor's race, Democrat Tony Evers says GOP Gov. Scott Walker supports "a health care plan that would gut protections for pre-existing conditions." Mostly True. https://t.co/nhDcaoHMP7 #wigov #wipolitics pic.twitter.com/HbqiwlfmTC

— PolitiFact (@PolitiFact) October 18, 2018

Is a blue wave likely in November? @AP national politics reporter @jmsummers weighs in on @1a. https://t.co/nwxY6FzxNW

— AP CorpComm (@AP_CorpComm) October 18, 2018

Watch: The best campaign ads of 2018 so far https://t.co/8L579ovCiR pic.twitter.com/0GwQmukzrb

— Paste Magazine (@PasteMagazine) October 18, 2018

Two recent congressional ratings changes, both in favor of Democrats. #OH12 moves from Lean R to Toss Up, and #NY11 moves from Likely R to Lean R. #ThursdayMotivation https://t.co/nH4w9ftjop

— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) October 18, 2018

North Dakota tribes need $100K to get tribal IDs to voters, after ND Republicans attempt to disenfranchise them. Daily Kos is raising the money for the effort, and WOAH within the first few minutes we're already at $34,000! Let's finish strong: https://t.co/8IORrRlDYi

— Markos Moulitsas (@markos) October 17, 2018

A dead pimp is about to win an election in Nevada which seems about right for the #EndTimes https://t.co/XoxS5jhOxm

— Ben White (@morningmoneyben) October 18, 2018

#FLGov
Gillum (D) 48 (+8)
DeSantis (R) 40#FLSen:
Nelson (D) 48 (+3)
Scott (R) 45

Kaiser Family Foundation Poll https://t.co/JebzNWSWOT

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 18, 2018

And all those races ended up within 2 points of those October poll margins (*except 2012 which was 4 points, but that poll was from late September). Not a lot of movement once the die has been cast. https://t.co/d5J8g2qxYy

— Patrick Murray (@PollsterPatrick) October 18, 2018

Forecast will still have Blackburn ahead, but note this race ain't over yet. https://t.co/NU7JP2Gz5I

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 18, 2018

As usual, polls are reverting to historical baselines as election day comes closer: partisans come home. Consistent with @SamWangPhD's analysis in this post, in my article with @j_kalla we show that campaign effects also go way down closer to elections: https://t.co/NOtarkyxsp. https://t.co/E71RgSJCM2

— David Broockman (@dbroockman) October 18, 2018

Tabitha Isner and her campaign manager, Megan Skipper, have each experienced harassment on the campaign trail in Alabama https://t.co/5pOXsDf6hL

— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 18, 2018

"The Doug Jones race showed us there are a lot of people who think like us, and it's possible for our state to change," said Mallory Hagan, a first-time candidate who is the Democratic nominee in Alabama's 3rd congressional district https://t.co/vdxXvnZBYW

— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 18, 2018

Who's winning the social nedia midterms? https://t.co/tiQWLe3ZhX pic.twitter.com/dsAReEnhjf

— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 18, 2018

Special report: How America's top CEOs are investing in the midterm elections https://t.co/4UrDDQvD6k

— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) October 18, 2018

Nate Silver: Odds Are, Your Next Governor Will Be A Democrat https://t.co/aWaoyXv1q6

— Shawn Peirce (@_silversmith) October 18, 2018

The number that explains #NJSen: 64% of voters say what Menendez did was "about the same as what most other politicians do." https://t.co/wRDcgliUo4

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) October 18, 2018

Republicans will try again to kill Obamacare after the midterms

Obamacare is more popular than ever but that doesn’t matter to McConnell.

Today, Mitch McConnell has expressed a longing to kill protections for people with preexisting conditions, cut medicare, cut medicaid and cut social security after midterms. Contrary to the GOP elites opinion – lot of folks won't vote to commit suicide. https://t.co/a5fu2giUkB

— Kurt Eichenwald (@kurteichenwald) October 17, 2018

Mitch McConnell says Senate Republicans may try again to repeal Obamacare if they win enough seats in the midterm election, per @Reuters.https://t.co/fB8OVk2Wb2

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 17, 2018

republicans doing everything they can to stymie obamacare and gut its protections for consumers, then turning around and promising to protect those protections, is just breathtakingly cynical, even in the age of trump https://t.co/SyX0SiR7r2

— jamelle g-g-ghoulie 👻 (@jbouie) October 16, 2018

McConnell: GOP may take another shot at repealing Obamacare after the midterms https://t.co/NsT5OMdKxC

— Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 17, 2018

As you read this, Trump and GOP are still trying to gut coverage for pre-existing coverage in a lawsuit in federal court. Can The MSM media PLEASE cover this at least half as much as they Covered Trump meeting Kanye?! This will have a real impact on lives! https://t.co/GVFpW2xQDB

— (((DeanObeidallah))) (@DeanObeidallah) October 14, 2018

2018 elections update – 10/17/18

Democratic candidates for Congress have raised a record-shattering $1 billion this election https://t.co/VJ0cPeE4ZJ

— Eugene Scott (@Eugene_Scott) October 17, 2018

"The women incorrectly identified as survivors of 'domestic violence, sexual assault, or rape in an open letter from Sen. Heidi Heitkamp's re-election campaign to her Republican opponent Rep. Kevin Cramer are 'beyond furious,' 'confused' and 'upset.'" https://t.co/ZXfb1eJ2KC

— 💀andrew👻kaczynski🎃 (@KFILE) October 17, 2018

Oh look…another @HouseGOP member lying about his record on pre-existing conditions. #NY19 https://t.co/R171BmiXid

— Jessica Mackler (@jessicamackler) October 17, 2018

Donald Trump is getting ready to throw Republicans under the bus | Analysis by CNN's Chris Cillizza https://t.co/OmHLZPcJnr pic.twitter.com/ertqqHSbbb

— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) October 17, 2018

Kavanaugh’s effect on the midterms is amazeballs. https://t.co/i0AMCaJveC

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) October 17, 2018

"The chamber PAC's endorsement of Whitmer is the first time the regional business organization has backed a Democrat for governor since 1990… The PAC's bylaws requires a two-thirds supermajority among board members to issue an endorsement.” #migov https://t.co/X6WoH85QcH

— Zack Pohl (@ZackPohl) October 17, 2018

FIXING TYPO
Generic ballot: was D +8.0, now D +8.4
Trump net approval: was -10.7, now -10.0
House (polls-only forecast): was D 71%, now D 76%
House (classic forecast): was D 75%, now D 83%
Senate (polls-only): was R 76%, now R 82%
Senate (classic): was R 77%, now **R** 81%

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 17, 2018

Wrote this just after the Kavanaugh confirmation. A quick update on how our various models and metrics have changed since then (see next tweet). https://t.co/4ihxdc5NFY

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 17, 2018

Not a super clear story here. 3 metrics got better for the GOP and 3 got better for Dems. My take before was that the notion that Kavanaugh had helped the GOP was maybe half-true. Now I think it's sort of one-quarter-true. We'll see, though. Could use more polls in a few places.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 17, 2018

Walker should be sacked:

Making the case for a third term as governor, Scott Walker compared himself to Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Can he win a come-from-behind victory on Nov. 6? My latest from Wisconsin: https://t.co/uRifPP09Bh.

— James Hohmann (@jameshohmann) October 17, 2018

Voters have grown 45 net percentage points more likely to say Trump represents the majority viewpoint of Republicans in Washington https://t.co/tILvgqZd7F

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) October 17, 2018

Beto O’Rourke has run a charismatic campaign against Ted Cruz. But he remains the same long-shot candidate that he was at the beginning of the race. https://t.co/pcabK5ZKgS

— The New Yorker (@NewYorker) October 17, 2018

There's a name for that, Bill. It's called the Affordable Care Act and you filed NINE lawsuits attacking it. https://t.co/PIOnPA6YLq

— Gretchen Whitmer (@gretchenwhitmer) October 16, 2018

More than 200,000 voters live in counties devastated by Hurricane Michael. Now, with Election Day just weeks away, Florida faces a new question: How will people in affected areas be able to vote? https://t.co/PI0Unq25Z4

— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 17, 2018

I know we know this already, but it's still pretty incredible to see the extent of the GOP defection in the suburbs of Kansas City https://t.co/0VDYrcpr5y pic.twitter.com/mcSee59gn6

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 17, 2018

Democrats aren't closing the deal in must-win Senate races https://t.co/dEwr7ggsFV | Analysis by Harry Enten pic.twitter.com/gV0vy9J9RJ

— CNN (@CNN) October 17, 2018

In tight House races, Democrats raised 3 times as much from small donors as Republicans did, helping fuel their midterms fund-raising lead https://t.co/KA74dr0rV8

— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 17, 2018

Obama doesn't want to hear "I don't care about politics" as an excuse for not voting in the midtermshttps://t.co/Mc1s6TkYoe

— Axios (@axios) October 17, 2018

President Trump is a huge factor in Americans' midterm votes https://t.co/z0jHeDasVS pic.twitter.com/E72SOdFJ7u

— CNN (@CNN) October 17, 2018

Analysis: Trump is already trying to shift blame elsewhere for the midterm elections https://t.co/4gtr6AbqUk

— Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 17, 2018

A new poll shows that if voter turnout is low on November 6, Republicans will hold on to the House by just one seat. This is why it’s so critical we talk to our friends, we talk to our neighbors, and we get everyone we know out to vote in 22 days to elect Democrats. pic.twitter.com/6rDgl4aRFz

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 15, 2018

As our overall scoreboard of success, we're projecting the *population* that will be in states governed by each party. No offense to Wyoming and Vermont, but who's governor of California and Texas is way more important. Democrats project to govern about 60% of the population. pic.twitter.com/XbguidHbwk

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 17, 2018

There are 176 U.S. congressional districts with at least 50,000 Latino eligible voters in 2017, and they contain nearly 80% of all Latino eligible voters. https://t.co/yIoArFynY1 pic.twitter.com/lPq9v33kHy

— Pew Research Fact Tank (@FactTank) October 17, 2018

SCOOP: Florida Gov. Rick Scott ran a super PAC that got a $500,000 donation from a private-equity CEO…

…and one week later, Florida invested $200 million of state pension money with the CEO's private-equity fund.https://t.co/VwxqDEm2HB

— Jonathan Larsen (@jtlarsen) October 17, 2018

Rick Scott, the Florida governor and Senate candidate, could become the richest member of Congress. He’d bring with him a tangle of investments that could benefit from his policies. https://t.co/ZhF7BQRGRk

— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) October 17, 2018

Bingo. https://t.co/HCF7WQXgT7

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 17, 2018

3rd Quarter filings show a #BlueWave of cash flowing to Dem candidates https://t.co/aKEktQw6SX

— OpenSecrets.org (@OpenSecretsDC) October 17, 2018

Since the Citizens United ruling, the length to which the wealthy and powerful will go to hide their agendas has no bounds. We need to end this. https://t.co/cTxnuViBmY

— Steve Bullock (@GovernorBullock) October 10, 2018

ICYMI: Check out my interview with @stephanieruhle on @msnbc to hear my thoughts on California's battleground races, money in politics, and how to #flipthehouse in November.https://t.co/ATDXEASjKF

— Stephen J. Cloobeck (@sjcloobeck) October 10, 2018

Incumbents running in Florida, New Jersey, Indiana and West Virginia took in less money from July through September than their Republican challengers. #midterms https://t.co/WausRokixv

— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) October 16, 2018

Opinion: The midterm elections are drowning in money. How worried should that make us? https://t.co/mBlTEgqeo8

— Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 16, 2018

😬 https://t.co/el3sYtIjOW

— Eugene Scott (@Eugene_Scott) October 17, 2018

In Iowa governor's race, @FiveThirtyEight predicts "Likely D" or Democrat, in competitive match between @KimReynoldsIA, @FredHubbell. #iagov https://t.co/nDw7GKCTG6

— Barbara Rodriguez (@bcrodriguez) October 17, 2018

There’s an estimated wait of 3 hours to vote early for the midterms in Cobb, one of Georgia’s largest counties. Janine Eveler, head of Cobb elections, said some people lined up at 7 a.m. — the polls open at 8 a.m. @CobbNewsNow @ajc @PoliticallyGa pic.twitter.com/oN7ACRY2sJ

— Ben Brasch (@ben_brasch) October 17, 2018

I’ve it once and i’ll it again, the GOP’s sales pitch for the midterms isn’t jobs, it’s toxic masculinity. https://t.co/CHiPV9D8fG

— Liz Plank (@feministabulous) October 17, 2018

I explain why the midterms are the most important election of our lives….until the next one. The reason: it's all about accountability and truth.https://t.co/E9LlMYLVn8

— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) October 17, 2018

*Waits for media bias police to respond to this publication’s framing of this Rhodes scholar and Harvard Law grad‘s congressional run … https://t.co/n6Nsa0QfTG

— Eugene Scott (@Eugene_Scott) October 17, 2018

Staggering to think how many reporters Paul Ryan conned. https://t.co/KGHO4efxNf

— Brian Beutler (@brianbeutler) October 17, 2018

On the campaign trail, candidate Young is quick to express his opposition to the Trump Administration's rule on 'junk-plans' that can deny coverage for ppl with pre-existing conditions. But in Washington, Congressman Young refuses to stand up to his party to do anything about it.

— Cindy Axne (@Axne4Congress) October 17, 2018

Republicans “angry mob” rhetoric is dangerous

I agree with this column.

In my opinion, Republicans can’t win on the issues (taxes, health care, Me Too, etc) so they resort to name calling and bigotry to rile up their base,

The GOP’s ‘angry mob’ rhetoric is a dangerous assault against democratic norms. A WaPo editorial. @postopinions https://t.co/0dxxm5eEHq

— Fred Hiatt (@hiattf) October 16, 2018

2018 elections update – 10/16/18

Can’t Rohrabacher get the Russians to give him some money?

I think this is the biggest fundraising advantage for any challenger against an incumbent right now. #CA48 pic.twitter.com/ZeAY0wBVe5

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) October 16, 2018

The battle to control Congress is on and Democrats are gunning for key governorships in Trump country, ABC News' @devindwyer reports https://t.co/N45xju56hv

Watch "The Big Vote" on https://t.co/RgLiovbp5B or the @ABC News app pic.twitter.com/bGDquxTaR3

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) October 16, 2018

Where the House is:
1. Dems seem to have clear advantage in enough races to net at least a dozen seats.
2. They need to net 24 for control.
3. Many more close contests are overwhelmingly for GOP-held seats, so Ds have many options for other wins they needhttps://t.co/CRryENfi3x

— Andrew Prokop (@awprokop) October 16, 2018

It's not hard to amass a list of Democratic House contenders who could graduate very quickly to future Senate nominations if they win next month in NJ, CO, TX, KY, PA, NC & other states https://t.co/wC7CX71MEA

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) October 16, 2018

CNN poll: Cruz leads O'Rourke with three weeks to go (Jennifer Agiesta, CNN) https://t.co/zuacWfnvOi

— OpinionToday.com (@OpinionToday) October 16, 2018

What she and her campaign did was terrible.

But damn if this isn’t the most honest and real apology from a politician I’ve ever seen.

Thread: https://t.co/8RVdkV1Vnr

— Ashe Schow (@AsheSchow) October 16, 2018

It's coming. (Although our actual interactive will round these off to the nearest 1 million!). pic.twitter.com/WIzhFSCs8M

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 16, 2018

With the November midterm elections fast approaching, it is becoming increasingly clear that both Washington and statehouses around the country could be in for major changes.

Take a look at 7 key races that tell the story of the 2018 midterms: https://t.co/eSDvlL0XYo pic.twitter.com/1tgizJrrt3

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) October 16, 2018

When a person has paid their debt in full, they deserve a second chance. Vote Yes on FL’s Amendment 4 and help restore people’s right to vote. @realgranthill33 @Warrickdunn & Stan Van Gundy

— Anquan Boldin (@AnquanBoldin) October 16, 2018

“I got into this race because of health care, because of my mom. She did not have health care when she was diagnosed with stage four ovarian cancer.” Democrat Elissa Slotkin, running for Congress in Michigan, shares a personal story with @devindwyer. https://t.co/fu2aIINxDY pic.twitter.com/Y4naxE0iym

— ABC News Live (@ABCNewsLive) October 16, 2018

Vulnerable Republicans embrace party’s beloved B.S. and jingoism strategies in closing days of campaign: https://t.co/AyWu1SSiNM pic.twitter.com/8e5z51MH4P

— Slate (@Slate) October 16, 2018

The Adelsons have spent $112 million on Republicans

update 11/10/18:

The Adelsons bought themselves a medal just like they bought themselves an embassy and a political party. The list reads like someone tried to toss in all-American icons — Babe Ruth, Elvis — to cover up international corruption with domestic nostalgia. https://t.co/vsDIxlFLlb

— Sarah Kendzior (@sarahkendzior) November 10, 2018

update 11/5/18

JUST IN: GOP megadonors Sheldon and Miriam Adelson, who are Jewish and big Israel supporters, gave maximum donations to GOP #NC09 nominee who said Jews & Muslims have to convent to Christianity to achieve peace. https://t.co/IAFGOnJaiQ

— Alex Kotch 🔥🚲 (@alexkotch) November 5, 2018

The caravan freak-out ads being used to save a Republican in Minnesota, which @jwpetersNYT writes about here:https://t.co/t2imyIDfna
Are being run by Paul Ryan's designated House R super PAC, funded chiefly by Sheldon Adelson, as @readsludge notes here:https://t.co/wKF5RMFtsg

— Nick Confessore (@nickconfessore) November 4, 2018

update 10/24/18

“Trump’s patron-in-chief”

One fun thing you learn in reading about Sheldon Adelson, who is behind this ad, is that every GOP candidate holds him in total contempt. He knows nothing about anything and is a craven greedhead and bigot. But he does pay for this. https://t.co/uBbq5oreiB

— David Roth (@david_j_roth) October 22, 2018

update 10/22/18:

MORE ADELSON $$$ COMING? Sheldon & Miriam Adelson have already donated an astounding $112 MILLION to super PACs trying to helping Republicans keep control of Congress. They're considering giving even more, according to GOP finance operatives. https://t.co/CLi9OXzkC7

— Kenneth P. Vogel (@kenvogel) October 22, 2018

update 10/20/18:

Now it’s $112 million. Keep in mind he’s getting many millions in new tax breaks.

$$$$$HELDON ADELSON$$$$$: The casino magnate & his wife Miriam Adelson donated a combined $25M last month to @Senate_Fund, per a new @FEC report, bringing the couple's total giving to GOP super PACs this cycle to **$112 MILLION**. pic.twitter.com/EUNvXb7feL

— Kenneth P. Vogel (@kenvogel) October 19, 2018

The Adelsons have spent at least $88 million on GOP causes so far this cycle, according to Federal Election Commission filings https://t.co/6jqzAbxoRF

— POLITICO (@politico) October 16, 2018