How much money influences election results

I have often wondered about this, especially after seeing Democrats pour tons of money into failed attempts to unseat people like Mitch McConnell. This is an excellent column by David Byler of the Washington Post. I have also included tweets from after the election wondering if more money in specific races would have helped.

One thing I am tired of is incessant pleas for campaign contributions on Twitter and email. It’s overkill.

This basic idea is now a piece: https://t.co/Sk4ARCGBOk

I wanted the headline to be "Politicians don't need your money and Vicki Robin is right about everything"

but my editors are (thankfully) wiser than me https://t.co/Mb1ZSNNXQV
— David Byler (@databyler) November 11, 2022

In the closing months of the campaign, DCCC/HMP spent $2.7m to defend Stanton in his Biden+10 seat (he won by 12) and $1.8m to defend O’Halleran in his Trump+8 seat (he lost by 8). But they spent just $1.1m vs. AZ1 and $0 in AZ6, two races won by Rs by a combined 6,511 votes. pic.twitter.com/5r8W9ogMFW
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) November 15, 2022

Dems lost a seat that might seal their majority – #AZ06 – by very small margin last night.

Ruben Gallego had been telling DCCC from the start to give $ to Dem Kristen Engel.

Gallego: "The DCCC didn’t want to invest it there.. I was very clear that this was a winnable race.”
— Sarah Ferris (@sarahnferris) November 15, 2022

On the contrary, I think the decision by national Democrats to triage the race and let her get outspent by $5 million despite it clearly being a toss-up is what might cost the Democrats the House: https://t.co/LVk9zvBqPa
— Austin Ahlman (@austinahlman) November 13, 2022

Breaking news: Rep. Karen Bass (D) wins Los Angeles mayoral race, becoming first woman and second Black person elected to lead the nation’s second-largest city, overcoming more than $100 million in spending by the billionaire Rick Caruso’s campaign. https://t.co/uTfWa7rhVb
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 17, 2022

Media coverage of Trump rally but not Biden rally

The media is addicted to Trump.

Biden had a rally, too. Did NBC cover it ? https://t.co/CZdU4Szuke
— Harris Levy (@HarrisL585) November 8, 2022

Is the Post covering Biden too? https://t.co/CZdU4Shl66
— Harris Levy (@HarrisL585) November 8, 2022

More on wealthy donors for 2022 elections

The Supreme Court’s terrible Citizens United decision enabled rich people to give much more money to political causes

The 50 biggest donors this cycle have collectively pumped $1.1 billion into political committees and other groups competing in the midterms https://t.co/M6IdQQFwK3
— Citizens for Ethics (@CREWcrew) October 25, 2022

Expand the court. Get rid of Citizens United. Fix American democracy. https://t.co/d3scc3bUAp
— Mehdi Hasan (@mehdirhasan) November 3, 2022

"Lindell is part of a much bigger story – one that reveals how a complex web of donors, party leaders, conservative organizations and media outlets has been essential to reinforcing extremism," writes @julianzelizer https://t.co/SIveBMZEya
— CNN Opinion (@CNNOpinion) October 28, 2022

Charles Johnson, owner of @SFGiants donated $11million to GOPcandidates & PACS, including Herschel Walker. Walker is anti abortion/no exceptions. He has 4 children w 4 different women. Numerous women claim he paid for their abortion.

Really, Johnson? Really, @SFGiants
— Karlie / Proud Dem / Vote! (@KarlieInCali) October 27, 2022

Can I come back to that report that a billion dollars in dark money has been spent on Republican Senate candidates? Stunning. https://t.co/YiNzrl8Qy7
— Sheldon Whitehouse (@SenWhitehouse) October 26, 2022

NEW from us:

The fortune behind the single biggest right-wing donor this election comes from a strange source: the cardboard boxes and paper bags strewn about your home. https://t.co/RTymWN6rZ5 pic.twitter.com/Dki3CjlmAj
— Justin Elliott (@JustinElliott) October 26, 2022

That cardboard box in your home is fueling election denial…

A boom in profits for the shipping supply giant Uline has provided the funds for a deeply conservative Midwestern family to bankroll anti-democracy causes around the country.https://t.co/MdFJNf8wbQ
— ProPublica (@propublica) October 13, 2024

Ronald Lauder, heir to the Estee Lauder fortune, has joined the list of high-profile donors who are boosting election deniers, giving $1 million to the Republican State Leadership committee. https://t.co/wZPD4gy0Ru
— Citizens for Ethics (@CREWcrew) October 25, 2022

Peter Thiel is the Citizens United disaster personified.

He's poured nearly $30 million into the midterms.

Most of those funds have gone to J.D. Vance and Blake Masters — two of his personal protégés.

When billionaires can manipulate our elections like this, democracy dies.
— Robert Reich (@RBReich) October 24, 2022

These are the top 5 corporate contributors to election deniers running for federal and state offices:
1. Koch Industries, $629,000
2. AT&T, $619,500
3. Home Depot, $544,500
4. UPS, $441,100
5. Boeing, $427,500https://t.co/RStP3DsoXg
— Citizens for Ethics (@CREWcrew) October 22, 2022

NEW — Larry Ellison, the founder of Oracle, drops $10 million more into Tim Scott's super PAC, @OMFPAC.

Ellison has now put at least $35 million behind Scott, who could run for President in 2024. pic.twitter.com/rHLYx5r7HO
— Teddy Schleifer (@teddyschleifer) October 21, 2022

Good overview of what over a billion dollars, a few dozen front groups and a few shady operators can do to wreck democracy and capture a Court. https://t.co/72qYRSPMOK
— Sheldon Whitehouse (@SenWhitehouse) November 4, 2022

Excellent point on GOP polls

Republicans will use this as a reason not to accept election results.

They’re flooding the zone with GOP polls so they can game the polling averages and claim election was stolen if Dems do better than expected. RCP and @NateSilver538 are getting played. https://t.co/OK0PidqxNw
— Jonathan Alter (@jonathanalter) October 30, 2022

We need to start talking about the flood of GOP-aligned polls in the poll averages.

In national polling there are 5-6 GOP polls for every Dem aligned poll.

In PA 3 of 5 public polls we have from Oct are from GOP aligned firms.

Become too much of a thing to ignore.
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) October 24, 2022

NYT/Siena finds stronger results for Dems than the current poll averages (which are largely driven now by GOP pollsters like Trafalgar) across the four most critical Senate races.

The 49-44 Fetterman lead only *partly* after the debate. https://t.co/fBSn2CNQeC pic.twitter.com/tiCPBXXEy1
— Taniel (@Taniel) October 31, 2022

GOP polls have really been flooding the zone in Georgia. There have been five GOP polls of GA-SEN released this week. Zero nonpartisan polls. Last week ECU released a poll showing Warnock up 49-47. Only nonpartisan poll we've had.
— Drew Savicki 👻👻🦇🦇🎃🎃 (@DrewSav) October 28, 2022

After a flood of GOP outlier polls in all of these races designed to create stories about an impending red wave and digging into why Dems are losing ("is it crime/inflation?"), NYT/Siena suggests not much has changed in these races in the past two weeks. https://t.co/NexzmALJcf
— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) October 31, 2022

Nearly 2/3 of Republicans don’t trust the 2022 election results

I expect violence, lawsuits, recounts, and all kinds of stuff to sabotage the election results. I blame Trump.

NEW Brace for Nov. 9: Nearly two-thirds of Republican voters in the @USATODAY @Suffolk_U Poll say they don't trust the midterm election count to be fair and accurate. https://t.co/6zyzjwNkpk
— Susan Page (@SusanPage) October 30, 2022

Voter intimidation in Arizona

A Trump judge is allowing this to continue.

Breaking News: Activists can stake out ballot boxes in Arizona, a federal judge ruled. Voting rights groups have called the tactic voter intimidation. https://t.co/h8BtXVJoW8
— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 28, 2022

JUST IN: Emergency motion filed at 9th Circuit to bar armed guards at Ariz. ballot boxes. Doc: https://t.co/l3jGTGDLxK
— Josh Gorestein (@joshgerstein) October 29, 2022

Election deniers win in court:

PHOENIX (AP) — US judge in Arizona declines to bar group from monitoring ballot drop boxes, saying it would violate constitution.
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 28, 2022

Another example of bad New York Times coverage

This is a crystal clear example of media bias in political narratives https://t.co/2EFhNqUvZb
— Magdi Jacobs (@magi_jay) October 28, 2022

The “fresh evidence that the Republicans are poised to retake Congress” is that they’re not winning in any of these four polls of “archetypal swing districts,” and they’re losing one by double digits. https://t.co/aJBJfvPUOZ pic.twitter.com/ErCNqVKFl8
— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) October 28, 2022

The NYT just released four new House polls: a GOP-held district, two Dem-held tossups, and one lean Dem district. The polls find Democrats leading in all but one, where the race is tied.

The headline: “Polls in Four Swing Districts Show GOP Strength in Midterms.”

What?
— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) October 28, 2022

More signs Republicans won’t accept election losses

This is disgusting

The Republican effort to delegitimize potential midterm results has very much already begun, particularly about Pennsylvania: https://t.co/t5H5PXy6gu
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) November 6, 2022

Exclusive: Recording from last week of architect of Trump's failed attempt to overturn 2020 election:

👉Eastman urges allies to file complaints that could be used for court challenges to the upcoming midterm and presidential elections.

https://t.co/rR0BnX0ZvZ via @politico
— Heidi Przybyla (@HeidiReports) October 28, 2022

It is dangerous for Tucker Carlson to prime his viewers to treat Democratic wins as illegitimate. We’ve seen the dire consequences of such manipulations in the recent past.https://t.co/1LuJWJqyQS
— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) October 27, 2022

"Elias said he’s bracing for a deluge of litigation challenging election results, particularly as some Republican candidates have already said they will not accept a loss or have planted doubt on the election process despite no evidence of fraud."https://t.co/hYiLHICP3J
— Marc E. Elias (@marceelias) October 27, 2022

Read @Milbank on the election-denying mess in Nevada:

"Officials expect the eventual losers of several contests, perhaps a dozen, to contest the results…the state legislature could…throw out the results in any contested state election."@PostOpinions https://t.co/aWwvYr916B
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) October 21, 2022

Republican plans to undermine the credibility of PA elections

This is a preview of what they will do in 2024. They won’t accept the PA results if they lose.

It's not hard to see where this is going: https://t.co/1LuJWJqyQS

1. Trump "plans to challenge" the Philly vote
2. Tucker says Dem win in PA would be fraudulent
3. Cruz raising doubts about PA taking too long to count
4. Mastriano says that's "an attempt to have the fix in." pic.twitter.com/E1K8DRPycy
— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) October 27, 2022

Michael Caputo tells @CBSNews tonight that this @RollingStone article's mention of a Sept. mtg w/ Trump and others about how to handle election 2022 is accurate.

Caputo says Trump is now focused on urging PA GOP state lawmakers to repeal Act 77… https://t.co/igNq6ud3Ii
— Robert Costa (@costareports) October 24, 2022

Tweets on early voting

Updated TargetEarly data remains encouraging for Dems. Overall vote running 15-16% higher than 18. Here's how the vote is coming back D/R:
2020 2022 (now)
US 52-37 54-36
GA 47-46 51-41
MI 41-38 53-27
OH 41-44 44-41
PA 68-25 73-23
TX 41-48 48-43 1/x
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) October 25, 2022

look at the whole thread

More than 9.2 million pre-election ballots have been cast across 40 states as pre-election voting remains on pace with 2018, the highest midterm voter turnout in recent history. https://t.co/xgYMoxisAX
— CNN (@CNN) October 25, 2022

People, I have some thoughts on early voting + using it to predict election results

They are not positive https://t.co/qt37xQ07ar pic.twitter.com/dBqEdWi1Bo
— David Byler (@databyler) October 25, 2022