Trump’s approval dips in new polls

It's not just CNN's poll. All polling shows Trump's approval rating dropping. | Analysis by @ForecasterEnten https://t.co/dxY8IYuOrE pic.twitter.com/EeZ86er7fS

— CNN (@CNN) September 11, 2018

Four major recent polls put Trump's approval in the 30s:

CNN: 36/58 (new)

Quinnipiac: 38/54 (new)

WaPo/ABC: 38/60

Kaiser: 37/59

(h/t @DavidWright_CNN)

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) September 10, 2018

CNN POLL CONDUCTED BY SSRS
Sept. 6-9
Unfavorable Opinion of
Donald Trump

Now June
Republicans 18% 15%
Independents 65% 55%
Democrats 92% 87%

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) September 10, 2018

Two polls today have POTUS below 40 percent. Still a long way till November, but that’s a danger zone. https://t.co/gIBnrPn0TO

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) September 10, 2018

I count… Eight… Count em eight live interview polls finished in the last 2 weeks… Each one has Trump's approval dropping from the last poll.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 10, 2018

two new polls today affirm sag in Trump’s standing:

Quinnipiac – 38% approve,
54% disapprove

Gallup – 40% approve, 54% disapprove

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) September 10, 2018

Trump's approval drops looks real to me… Got a number of high quality polls that have Trump's approval rating in the 30s… If that is correct and holds, we may be looking at more like a 40+ seat gain for the Dems come November… https://t.co/RqrrPAGVsa

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 5, 2018

Republicans want more tax cuts

This would add a lot to the deficit. Their first bill already has and is not popular because the public know it primarily helped the wealthy. Republicans only care about the deficit when Democrats want programs that would help people.

Federal deficit soars 32 percent to $895 billion https://t.co/ryobSmzCPt pic.twitter.com/ltcKld8HZo

— The Hill (@thehill) September 11, 2018

House Republicans unveil tax cuts that conservative estimates say would add $2.4 trillion over 10 years to the deficit. (Liberal estimates put it at $3.4 trillion over 10 years.)

That is NOT counting the $1.9 trillion cost of the original GOP tax lawhttps://t.co/E6bugxkPYq

— Jeff Stein (@JStein_WaPo) September 11, 2018

Good discussion of how the new GOP tax bill could push factories offshore from Zheli He @Wharton.

E.g., "by expanding production facilities abroad Harley-Davidson not only avoids tariffs imposed by the EU, it also reduces its overall U.S. tax liability."https://t.co/cLUyJsLoQG

— Seth Hanlon (@SethHanlon) September 11, 2018

Republicans could limit SALT impact in new tax legislation https://t.co/QmngYbx6Oj

— Reuters Top News (@Reuters) September 7, 2018

2018 election update 9/11/18

Republicans have a 2 in 9 chance of keeping control of the House, while Democrats have about a 7 in 9 chance of winning control of the House. https://t.co/lyNh30TEIw pic.twitter.com/BGE2g4zziY

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) September 11, 2018

In North Carolina, Democrats sense that could be a major voter backlash over GOP overreach on a range of issues, including the bathroom bill and gerrymandering. A must-read story from @AmyEGardner in Apex: https://t.co/a6PHh4UjYg

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) September 11, 2018

Trump's approval rating is about the same as Obama's and Clinton's before their 1st mid-term election.

In 1994, Clinton's party lost 52 House seats and 8 Senate seats
In 2010, Obama's party lost 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats

h/t @DBAmericas #Election2018 pic.twitter.com/JcnLGVXX9k

— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) September 11, 2018

GOP data firm gives roughly similar probabilities for Dems taking the House and Republicans keeping the Senate https://t.co/k1rJ4PS6Lz

— Alex Burns (@alexburnsNYT) September 11, 2018

Yeah I think so.

FWIW they should have been worried when the model said Rs had a 70% win probability. That's what Hillary Clinton had around Election Day. She had a real advantage, but obvs a win wasn't guaranteed. https://t.co/rgh4UYf35d

— David Byler (@databyler) September 11, 2018

Is a strong US economy enough to give Republicans and President Trump a victory in November’s midterm elections? https://t.co/pbCo2fuscA pic.twitter.com/9wzFCF3VAf

— CNN (@CNN) September 11, 2018

Why the Dems are looking good to retake the House but not the Senate: https://t.co/wbYWdb772S pic.twitter.com/4JIkXPkYEO

— Slate (@Slate) September 10, 2018

NEW: There's a wholesale shift among Hollywood donors and activists this year. They're getting nerdy about midterm House races, checking Cook Political Report and fundraising for Democrats across the country. https://t.co/kzE72gWlYE

— Michelle Ye Hee Lee (@myhlee) September 10, 2018

Republicans torpedo deal to stop using stolen documents in elections.

Maybe Trump’s Russian pals have promised him more stolen documents.

GOP torpedoes deal with Democrats to stop using stolen documents in election campaigns. Why are Republicans so obsessed on spying on political opponents? It’s a telling institutional sickness https://t.co/TZcoQtGxsH

— Borzou Daragahi 🖊🗒 (@borzou) September 7, 2018

Trump defends congressman who body slammed a reporter

I don’t want to hear any more from Trump about how liberals will be violent. He just praised a guy who attacked a reporter.

"He's fought in more ways than one for your state," Trump says of Greg Gianforte, the congressman who became famous nationally for body-slamming a reporter. "He is a fighter and a winner."

— Josh Dawsey (@jdawsey1) September 7, 2018

Another Republican white nationalist candidate

Another GOP white nationalist candidate: Everett Corley, the Republican nominee for a state House seat in Kentucky, appeared on a white nationalist show and complained about minorities. https://t.co/l1neGYBIq7

— Eric Hananoki (@ehananoki) September 6, 2018

I really think Trump will not accept the midterm results in Republicans lose

Maybe I’m paranoid but I believe he will claim the election was rigged and will try not to seat the next Congress. We know Republicans will do nothing to stop anything he does because their voters approve of him much more than them. He’s getting his cult ready to believe the election is rigged:

Trump, without evidence, accuses social media firms of election meddling: report https://t.co/ejC7EdHd1B pic.twitter.com/T2MYZPbL5g

— Reuters Top News (@Reuters) September 5, 2018

He’s already said that social media firms have interfered. From the article:

“Referring to companies such as Facebook Inc (FB.O) and Twitter Inc(TWTR.N), Trump, a Republican, told the Daily Caller in an interview conducted on Tuesday “I think they already have” interfered in the Nov. 6 election. ”

Of course, he won’t say that Russia is interfering in the election. Sad!

update 9/18/18

Now he is saying China is meddling in the 2018 election

Trump accused China of seeking to interfere in the U.S. elections by slapping tariffs on products from politically pivotal states, even though it was the president who instigated the latest fight by imposing $200 billion in new tariffs on Beijing. https://t.co/38D2i4V4di

— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) September 18, 2018

"their loyalty to me" https://t.co/h1H9UHBRq3

— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) September 18, 2018

more 2018 midterms polls 9/4/18

The polls are trending in the wrong direction for the GOP as the midterms draw near. But if you are a poll skeptic, there are other pieces of hard evidence that suggest trouble on the horizon. My latest column -> https://t.co/2AN7HymPdw

— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) September 5, 2018

Charting one metric showing a grim 2018 for the GOP. https://t.co/472rfFlOky

— Philip Bump (@pbump) September 6, 2018

Similar sobering numbers for the GOP in our new @USATODAY @Suffolk_U Poll this morning: 11-point disadvantage on ballot. By 58%-34%, voters want a Congress that stands up to Trump, not cooperates with him. https://t.co/mHK1LpfN3N https://t.co/QfvIeyKSVZ

— Susan Page (@SusanPage) September 4, 2018

New midterm election polls have bad news for Trump and the GOP https://t.co/gRKbnJeJe3

— Salon (@Salon) September 4, 2018

Politico

One tweet by @Redistrict prompted me to dive deep on the demographics of the House — and how they're changing. https://t.co/FGwEhAQzPj

— Philip Bump (@pbump) September 5, 2018

The backdrop is that in a state Trump won by 19, the poll puts his net approval now at only +2. He's -6 among college + whites….even in Indiana & Donnelly leads among them, while staying w/in range among non-college whites. The white-collar recoil from Trump isn't just coastal https://t.co/eNkV6fqCoN

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) September 5, 2018

Tonight, we will launch the first of nearly 100 live NYT Upshot/Siena polls of the fight for Congress.
For the first time, we'll publish the results live in real time, respondent by respondent.
We start this evening in CA-48, KY-6, IL-6, MN-8, IL-12https://t.co/R4EbBmvGM9

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 6, 2018

GEORGIA
Governor:
Brian Kemp (R) 45%
Stacey Abrams (D) 45%
Ted Metz (L) 2%
(Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV Poll, LV, 8/26 – 9/4/18)

— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 6, 2018

Trump's approval drops looks real to me… Got a number of high quality polls that have Trump's approval rating in the 30s… If that is correct and holds, we may be looking at more like a 40+ seat gain for the Dems come November… https://t.co/RqrrPAGVsa

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 5, 2018

Underrated: How rarely incumbents lose when their party is having a good year overall.

In our Senate database, there are 5 years I'd consider wave elections (94, 2010 and 14 for R's; 2006 and 08 for D's). How did incumbents from the waving parties do? Undefeated. 54 for 54.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 7, 2018

Eight questions for the midterms

Among the many indispensable insights from @danbalz here: in ABC/WP polling Trump's approval w/college+ white women has skidded from 40% @ the 100 day mark to 23% now. But w/non-col white women he was 51% then, 49% now. Why suburbs are easier for Dems. https://t.co/oyCwLedupK

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) September 3, 2018

Another new poll

More bad news for Republicans.

We’ll see what happens. I guess the Russians will have to increase their interference which Trump won’t stop.

Blue Wave 🌊Building?
"Last month, the IBD/TIPP poll showed registered voters split at 45%-45% on whether Congress should be controlled by #Republicans or #Democrats.
current poll shows Dems w/an 11-pt advantage."

50% prefer Dem-control vs 39% for #GOP.https://t.co/E7y6PQYKzU

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) September 3, 2018