Polarization on Trump

Really telling chart in new paper by University of California San Diego's Gary Jacobson on Trump's role in the midterms. Truly historic polarization in terms of views of incumbent president. https://t.co/Xvh9i5t0YH pic.twitter.com/pLkRntYE4i

— Perry Bacon Jr. (@perrybaconjr) August 25, 2018

PolitiFact guide to key 2018 elections

Check out PolitiFact's guide to key 2018 midterm races https://t.co/TD2fQYORJb pic.twitter.com/kkqLVcyWzJ

— PolitiFact (@PolitiFact) August 25, 2018

Pro-Trump super PAC invests in congressional races

The main pro-Trump super PAC ⁦@AmericaFirstPAC⁩ announces its $12.5 million investments in 2018 midterm races: pic.twitter.com/hUlmr93CYQ

— Michelle Ye Hee Lee (@myhlee) August 24, 2018

The White House killed an election security bill

Guess they like Russian interference

Gutless Republicans will do nothing

So if you were in the league with the Russians and wanted them to interfere in the 2018 elections the way they did in 2016 and tilt them in your direction, what would you do? https://t.co/VIMqPXggld

— Norman Ornstein (@NormOrnstein) August 25, 2018

White House blocking bipartisan bill to protect voting machines from being hacked, practically inviting Russia to hack our elections again https://t.co/eAiR7wEBIv

— Ari Berman (@AriBerman) August 23, 2018

Majority of the Senate represents only 18% of the US population

And, 60% of the Senate now represents just 24% of the country’s population. This penalty for Dems is on full display in 2018: https://t.co/qmCDpXQkLy

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 20, 2018

Blazing Take: The Senate is an unconstitutional violation of the principle of democratic equality (one person, one vote). https://t.co/Qyu1Q8WOXM

— Brian Ted Jones (@briantedjones) August 20, 2018

A long-term problem for Democrats: a majority of the Senate now represents 18% of the country’s population.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 20, 2018

For all the gerrymandering in the House, it's actually the Senate that's vastly more unrepresentative. The fact it's remotely close owes to 11 red-state Dem senators – almost entirely up in 2018 – who have hung on thanks to an extraordinary combination of skill & luck.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 20, 2018

If that red-state Dem dam breaks – and it *could* in November – we could be headed for a Senate that's largely accountable to a white, rural, pro-Trump minority of the country. At some point, the coastal/urban majority could run out of patience – threatening democratic stability.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 20, 2018

update today (9/27) after the Ford/Kavanaugh hearing:

To Dems who can’t believe what they’re watching, remember: a majority of the Senate now represents 18% of the population & answers to a subset of voters that is considerably whiter, redder and more rural than the nation as a whole. That’s the reality of our times.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 27, 2018

update 10/1/18:

As the Senate votes on Kavanaugh's confirmation, let's remember the same amount of people live in Los Angeles as these 7 rural, mostly white states. They have 14 Senators while LA shares 2 with the rest of California.

We don't live in a democracy where everyone has an equal say. pic.twitter.com/3oaGGjGmRQ

— Waleed Shahid (@_waleedshahid) September 28, 2018

Russia hacked conservative sites

But Trump does nothing.

So 2 things are now clear:

1. Russia feels free to hack and hurt even American conservatives who are anti-Trump without fear that Trump will put America’s interests above his own and thus punish Putin.

2. Microsoft is pushing back even if Trump is not.https://t.co/jZ9hYZg3nN

— Laurence Tribe (@tribelaw) August 21, 2018

Republican donors love the Trump tax cut and are giving them lots of money

From this article:

“…party leaders say the passage of the law appeased wealthy donors, who had been frustrated by Republicans’ failure to repeal the Affordable Care Act and had threatened to sit out the 2018 campaign. Now, flush with big checks from a handful of deep-pocketed donors, the Congressional Leadership Fund is serving as the party’s best hope of a defense against an electoral defeat in November.”

Key sign of kleptocracy and autocracy, Legal bribes. This is not just about Donald Trump. It is the handiwork of John Roberts, Anthony Kennedy, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell. The disgraceful handiwork, selling out America and its fundamental values. https://t.co/QxZu6cb2kL

— Norman Ornstein (@NormOrnstein) August 19, 2018

Sad!

Republicans have enabled Trump

This is a great column.

The real story isn't Trump, who's exactly what we should have expected; it's his enablers in the G.O.P. https://t.co/pDXilAlPhi

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) August 18, 2018

FBI probing cyber attack on congressional campaign

Both attacks were against Democrats. Coincidence? I doubt it.

Don't miss the pattern emerging here: candidates around the country reporting evidence of interference in 2018 election.

Reuters: FBI probing cyber attack on congressional campaign in California – sources https://t.co/YrZqRlzuFO

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) August 17, 2018

2018 midterm elections update

Fact: if every state/district's result in November were an 8% uniform swing in Dems' favor from the '16 prez result, Dems would simultaneously gain 44 House seats (almost twice the +23 they need), but *lose* 4 Senate seats. https://t.co/qmCDpXyJmY pic.twitter.com/d00c4PyRkd

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 20, 2018

White women have gone from +9 Trump and +12 R House in 2016 to +2 D House in 2018. https://t.co/fJODgSc3mZ

— Nu Wexler (@wexler) August 20, 2018

Ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, there are now 43 Republican seats without an incumbent on the ballot. That's more than one out of every six Republicans in the House — a record in at least a century. https://t.co/SE5rn3zhoS

— Axios (@axios) August 19, 2018

Here's my simple guide to the midterms as they stand now: where the parties stand, where they hope to make gains, what Democrats need to do to succeed: https://t.co/1IhFdLpsQH

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) August 17, 2018

A broad consensus of indicators point toward Dems performing well in the race for the House. https://t.co/PLHS1a9A3w

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) August 17, 2018

Top 10 governor’s races

Trump’s effort to hold his base close seems to be working

House seats most likely to flip

New CBS/YouGov House model has a Democratic lead of 6.8 points in the national popular vote translating to a majority of 9 seats. This degree of malapportionment is an affront to democracy. https://t.co/1s606yht4s

— G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️ (@gelliottmorris) August 19, 2018

Our 2018 House Forecast: https://t.co/lyNh30TEIw

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) August 20, 2018

I think the tweet below makes sense. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won most of the close swing states which led to his victory.

Ultimately, I think Ds either fall a few seats short of House majority or win 35+ seats. Tons of single digit races that will break overwhelmingly to D or R on Election Day – won’t break 50-50.

— amy walter (@amyewalter) August 19, 2018

Trump's "red wave" could sink GOP https://t.co/MX9xjz6pPU

— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) August 20, 2018

Per @jonathanvswan – GOP strategists are concerned the base doesn’t appreciate the threat of a blue wave, due to their mistrust of polls/media.
From @jpiacenza – only 28% (!) of GOP voters said they would trust a poll indicating Dems would take the house: https://t.co/3gxFOICnNo pic.twitter.com/CwgSk9keBd

— Nick Laughlin (@nick_d_laughlin) August 19, 2018

There’s also this report from @cameron_easley – 61% of Republicans feel confident about the midterms. Just 43% of Democrats say the same: https://t.co/F62DwGhoXE pic.twitter.com/lhX3DtJ6cA

— Nick Laughlin (@nick_d_laughlin) August 19, 2018

While Trump talks of a “red wave,” here’s the reality: https://t.co/xZquJO9LPq

— Eli Stokols (@EliStokols) August 21, 2018

How to blow a winnable election, gubernatorial edition. By @databyler. https://t.co/s6yayvEkqd

— Varad Mehta (@varadmehta) August 21, 2018

This is right. In our model, there a ~60% chance that Democrats *either* win 40+ seats *or* fail to take the House. https://t.co/HSP24cE7mK

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 19, 2018

A lot of Dems tend to forget: this year's median competitive Senate seat gave Trump 56% in '16 & is 80% white.

Median competitive House seat: 49% Trump, 74% white.

U.S. as a whole: 46% Trump, 62% white.https://t.co/qmCDpXyJmY

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 20, 2018

Mars vs. Venus: in 2018, the median competitive Senate seat is 7% more pro-Trump, 4x less dense, 5% less college-educated & 7% whiter than the median competitive House seat. https://t.co/qmCDpXyJmY pic.twitter.com/hP4jCQx5b6

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 20, 2018

Reason 12,345 why 2018 is weird:

Trump won #WV03's open seat by *50%* & *lost* Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R)'s #FL26 by 16%. Today, @CookPolitical rates both races the same: Lean R.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 16, 2018

Here's what candidates for House/Senate talked about in their primary ads. Will be very interesting once we update during fall campaigns to see how/if these categories change.https://t.co/mJB6xJw8UH pic.twitter.com/ZMXAzOLEgK

— amy walter (@amyewalter) August 17, 2018

Turnout in this year’s U.S. House primaries is up, especially on the Democratic side https://t.co/4Q4DiNZNqQ pic.twitter.com/OyrDjDFyVN

— Pew Research Fact Tank (@FactTank) August 25, 2018