GOP Cuts into Dem Lead in House Races, Poll Finds; More Voters Want Democrats to Control Senate https://t.co/exfKMSxaO0 #Midterms2018

— Quinnipiac University Poll (@QuinnipiacPoll) October 2, 2018

The GOP is starting to throw in the towel in some competitive House races: https://t.co/D5ln9dpe9y pic.twitter.com/f7UmIYjTcs

— Slate (@Slate) October 2, 2018

About a month away from midterms, @TheDemocrats have a +23% advantage among women.

Worth noting this is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. #Election2018

👉🏻 https://t.co/FW7kmRCqhc pic.twitter.com/0DdWMlXUOT

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) October 1, 2018

Texas has set a new voter registration record of 15.6 million people ahead of the midterm elections.

Vote ⁦@BetoORourke⁩. #txlege https://t.co/0qUlmY8EeB

— Shannon Watts (@shannonrwatts) October 1, 2018

How thousands of voters in swing state Arizona could be walking into a trap on Election Day https://t.co/b14QFhRcoa

— Salon (@Salon) September 28, 2018

By contrast, there are still a lot of races without star candidates that are *underfunded* for Dems. Dems risk leaving a few of them on the table on Election Night.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 1, 2018

Seems to be some movement in the Florida Senate race… It could be moving towards the fundamentals. If other races do that, watch out… It really puts the Senate in play. https://t.co/WnMDEX0nwj

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 29, 2018

Public opinion surrounding Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination has turned more sharply partisan following last week’s Senate hearing.

What was once seen as a political winner for the GOP now looks like a modest liability in this fall’s midterms https://t.co/j35NKTrCk8 pic.twitter.com/5kK98icdEv

— POLITICO (@politico) October 1, 2018

Politically, America's suburbs are evenly divided overall, but some have a clear Democratic or Republican tilt. https://t.co/IKMg56YTHW pic.twitter.com/JzVbFyOHO4

— Pew Research Fact Tank (@FactTank) October 2, 2018

Nearly a fifth of registered voters in the U.S. – about 37 million – voted in this year's House primaries. That may not sound like a lot, but it was a 56% increase over the 23.7 million who voted in 2014’s House primaries; turnout that year was 13.7%. https://t.co/7x5OE7BnxH pic.twitter.com/Z8UT2WRdhj

— Pew Research Fact Tank (@FactTank) October 3, 2018

There's about a 3% chance that New Jersey is the decisive state in the race for Senate control. That's not a lot. But that's 3% when, from Democrats' perspective, it should be 0% instead. https://t.co/9SXHdwh5aB

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 3, 2018

Hi, I'm here with a piece sure to freak out some Democrats: Bob Menendez could definitely lose that slam dunk senate seat in New Jersey https://t.co/BvCjCgVM6b

— Clare Malone (@ClareMalone) October 3, 2018

There's a pretty decent amount of evidence at this point that both
A) Kavanugh's popularity has dropped
B) The GOP has gained
since the Kavanaugh hearing.
Obviously, doesn't matter if it doesn't last. But it's interesting. https://t.co/H9V5MIpiJb

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 3, 2018

After I gave a talk last week, a woman told me that she'd like to participate in polls, but didn't know how to tell incoming calls from pollsters from incoming scam calls. Unfortunately, there isn't a clear way. Spam is killing telephone polls. https://t.co/Os9JjPXZxO

— Dan Cassino (@DanCassino) October 3, 2018

Certain to vote in '18, based on late-Sept. Gallup poll:
65+ 82%
50-64 69%
30-49 55%
18-29 26% <—– 🚨https://t.co/KDFFg2xhI8

— Justin Levitt (@_justinlevitt_) October 3, 2018

This district in West Virginia voted overwhelmingly for President Trump in the 2016 election. But now, a Democrat named Richard Ojeda, who also voted for Trump, is gaining ground in the deeply conservative area https://t.co/4XoBTax0aZ pic.twitter.com/pOn9CHcrp7

— CNN (@CNN) October 3, 2018

House Ratings alert: 7 more GOP seats move towards Dems at @CookPolitical. Biggest changes:#FL26: Curbelo (R) – Lean R to Toss Up#KS03: Yoder (R) – Toss Up to Lean D#MI11: OPEN (R) – Toss Up to Lean D#NY24: Katko (R) – Likely R to Lean R#UT04: Love (R) – Lean R to Toss Up

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 3, 2018

Lindsey Graham: “The defining issue in 2018″ for the Republican Party is Judge Brett Kavanaugh https://t.co/iYsb81VVxh

— Salon (@Salon) October 3, 2018

Much welcomed news for Republicans here. https://t.co/UVkFJ2xv7V

— Josh Dawsey (@jdawsey1) October 3, 2018

There's still plenty of time for conditions to change, but right now the likeliest outcome appears to be a Democratic gain of between 25 and 40 seats (Democrats need +23 for House control).

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 3, 2018

First time voting? Here's what you should know about the midterm elections. https://t.co/3jZu4WxtZe

— The New York Times (@nytimes) September 25, 2018

Happy National Voter Registration Day. Here's how to register to vote online: https://t.co/51TJXMWGo3

— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) September 25, 2018

This is good. He said it better on #TheWilderness finale. Is that statement clickbait? Maybe.https://t.co/Lfl7LhBQAd https://t.co/SpRMD4pZoA

— Pod Save America (@PodSaveAmerica) September 25, 2018

“If Republicans succeed in keeping the House in November, it will have been bought for them by corporations and the rich—quite literally.” https://t.co/u5jR0WF2PG

— End Citizens United (@StopBigMoney) September 27, 2018

Voters divided on Kavanaugh, but there's evidence of erosion in his support in our polls over the last week https://t.co/PC7ej96qPY

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 25, 2018

After the primary it seemed to be that McSally had closed in AZ-Senate… But the vast majority of polls after the primary have Sinema ahead. pic.twitter.com/xpNijr8IHw

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 24, 2018

Two high quality polls today showing Nelson ahead. Fundamentals have him ahead… So… Judge from that what you want… https://t.co/mrp3e1vVhT

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 25, 2018

BTW, you know how many polls Gillum has led in since the primary? Every single one.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 25, 2018

Steyer money cements Florida gov race as the single most important test case for the progressive theory of the Dem comeback

Mobilization > persuasion

Young & minority voters > centrist whites

Oh and total confrontation with Trumphttps://t.co/xwOdiUueAF

— Alex Burns (@alexburnsNYT) September 25, 2018

Gun control groups are pouring serious money into House races https://t.co/vwLdikPqE7 pic.twitter.com/zRP1dYYmtU

— Mother Jones (@MotherJones) September 26, 2018

The House polling we've seen – both public and private – was already pretty terrible for Republicans, but has gotten noticeably worse since Labor Day (with a few exceptions, mostly in substantially Hispanic districts)

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 24, 2018

And here are the rankings. Joe Manchin in W Va. keeps getting more secure in his reelection, while Heidi Heitkamp in ND is the most vulnerable Senate Dem right now. She's a very close second to GOP Sen. Dean Heller in NV for most likely to lose. https://t.co/EoRVyYcaB3

— Amber Phillips (@byamberphillips) September 21, 2018

A FiveThirtyEight Election Update pic.twitter.com/UPNAxnoHQ9

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) September 20, 2018

How the Democrats can flip the house on Election Day: congressional elections in #IA01, #VA07, and #WA08 https://t.co/N9JIytM9s5 pic.twitter.com/90KEFcCxVZ

— GQ Magazine (@GQMagazine) September 20, 2018

Now that the primaries have ended, there are 21 openly LGBT people nominated for Congress and four for governor, all Democrats, according to an advocacy group. https://t.co/UDKUQ11Vex

— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) September 20, 2018

NEWS: Private RNC poll admits "We've lost the messaging battle" on tax cuts, via me + @sahilkapur : https://t.co/uAmGz53XYL

— Joshua Green (@JoshuaGreen) September 20, 2018

This is one of my pet theories about 2018 and I'm glad to see actual data behind it. Some number of voters kept their GOP rep in office to hold the inevitable President Clinton accountable. https://t.co/IK5CoGNGvd

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) September 19, 2018

Democrats are surging back in the Midwestern states where President Trump cut deepest into their old coalition in 2016 https://t.co/hqtIBXVsEd

— POLITICO (@politico) September 21, 2018

Here's context on the Gosar siblings, one of whom has run for office as a Dem. One sister says, "It would be difficult to see my brother as anything but a racist." A brother claims they don't want to speak publicly, but "he just doesn’t appear to be well." https://t.co/cVwznox3NN

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) September 21, 2018

I don't think anyone is projecting that Ds will win the Senate. Rs are definitely still the favorites

But I think the conventional wisdom is lagging on the overall competitiveness of the chamber. My model has it at 60% chance R win. FiveThirtyEight has it at 68%

That's not safe

— David Byler (@databyler) September 21, 2018

Someone was nailed. https://t.co/sZBq0uaPuf

— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) September 18, 2018

The polls are pointing toward a wave in the House, with an average projected gain of 35 to 40 seats for Dems. And yet, Democrats are at risk of losing several of their own Senate seats, which could offset any gains they may make among GOP-held seats. https://t.co/tlD8ehutA3

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) September 18, 2018

Expected all of that except VA02. Interesting https://t.co/7RRzrfKseg

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 18, 2018

Democrats: 48.8%
Republicans: 39.8%https://t.co/5HUIDZs1De

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) September 18, 2018

Most Democratic incumbents are doing worse than the "fundamentals" would predict. https://t.co/tlD8ehutA3 pic.twitter.com/0sRlX4VnC7

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) September 18, 2018

A RNC internal poll finds the GOP is in danger due to complacent Trump voters. That's good. But wouldn't it be great to obliterate them with a #BlueWave? https://t.co/qbESRVJjCg pic.twitter.com/ozDYEMXq9f

— The Blue Wave 🌊 (@BlueWaveVoters) September 18, 2018

If a man raised from birth by the conservative movement isn't running on conservatism in a red state, is there any appeal left for right-wing ideas? https://t.co/JuT1iTnjM0 pic.twitter.com/Xg2OnRIunl

— Jonathan Chait (@jonathanchait) September 18, 2018

WISCONSIN
U.S. Senate:
Tammy Baldwin (D) 53%
Leah Vukmir (R) 42%
(Marquette Law School Poll, LV, 9/12-16/18)

— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 18, 2018

VIRGINIA
U.S. Senate:
Tim Kaine (D) 52%
Corey Stewart (R) 36%
Matt Waters (L) 5%
(U. of Mary Washington / SSRS, LV, 9/4-9/18)

— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 18, 2018

Dems pulling out stops, yet Greg Orman persistedhttps://t.co/NqwuzVZfRS

— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) September 18, 2018

We have now reached the stage where roughly every five minutes there is a poll released that is guaranteed to make Democrats or Republicans feel their stomach drop. And there are still seven weeks to go. https://t.co/fZsJNSyJ0f

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) September 18, 2018

TEXAS
U.S. Senate:
Ted Cruz (R) 54%
Beto O'Rourke (D) 45%
(Quinnipiac U. Poll, LV, 9/11-17/18)

— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 18, 2018

Health care is the #1 subject of Dem campaign ads. Here are a few of them, with my color commentary. (Sadly, there were only a few metaphors.) https://t.co/LjY1GTJPQt

— Margot Sanger-Katz (@sangerkatz) September 17, 2018

I found it! The single most important Senate race in the country!https://t.co/uiHAc4Z7h0 pic.twitter.com/1DWD5L64QZ

— Chris Cillizza (@CillizzaCNN) September 17, 2018

We've polled 12 of the 30 races characterized as "toss-up" by the Cook Political Report, and the overall margin is Dem 45.4, Rep 44.3

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 17, 2018

What a disaster for the GOP. https://t.co/xVhbqYCaf9

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 17, 2018

Knowing who’s truly “ahead” in a poll involves a lot more than reading the top line numbers.

For example, I’d *much* rather be Sean Casten (D), who’s trailing by one in #IL06 (Clinton +7) than Paul Davis (D), who leads by one in #KS02 (Trump +18). https://t.co/7dexcV9uRJ

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 16, 2018

More warning signs for the Senate GOP. New CNN poll: In Arizona, Sinema tops Republican Rep. Martha McSally by 7 points, 50% to 43%, while in Tennessee, Bredesen holds a 5-point edge over Rep. Marsha Blackburn, 50% to 45%

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) September 17, 2018

Things that aren't in the 2018 script: Sen. Joe Manchin being ahead by more in West Virginia (45-33 in a new Emerson poll) than Sen. Tina Smith in Minnesota (47-37 in a new Mason-Dixon poll).

— Taniel (@Taniel) September 17, 2018

Heart of 2018 midterms: By 58%-27%, respondents want Congress to be more of a check on Pres. Trump. New Quinnipiac poll also shows 14% generic edge for Dems—well more than needed for a D House majority. Generic average now=+8.4% D.

— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) September 12, 2018

.@MaddowBlog: Trump keeps telling the Republican base, "There will not be a Blue Wave." The problem for the GOP is that these voters believe him. https://t.co/m9Yd5goV7p

— MSNBC (@MSNBC) September 17, 2018

NEW In Georgia, a legal battle over electronic vs paper voting has national security implications. Pitting a Trump-endorsed gubernatorial hopeful, who says the system's safe, vs activists who say it's vulnerable to Russian hacking. @nakashimae: https://t.co/CgOneKs9ad

— Carol Leonnig (@CarolLeonnig) September 16, 2018