Good analysis of Trump’s feelings on trade agreements

This sounds right:

This. https://t.co/gH6wN0sJ5h

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) September 4, 2018

more 2018 midterms polls 9/4/18

The polls are trending in the wrong direction for the GOP as the midterms draw near. But if you are a poll skeptic, there are other pieces of hard evidence that suggest trouble on the horizon. My latest column -> https://t.co/2AN7HymPdw

— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) September 5, 2018

Charting one metric showing a grim 2018 for the GOP. https://t.co/472rfFlOky

— Philip Bump (@pbump) September 6, 2018

Similar sobering numbers for the GOP in our new @USATODAY @Suffolk_U Poll this morning: 11-point disadvantage on ballot. By 58%-34%, voters want a Congress that stands up to Trump, not cooperates with him. https://t.co/mHK1LpfN3N https://t.co/QfvIeyKSVZ

— Susan Page (@SusanPage) September 4, 2018

New midterm election polls have bad news for Trump and the GOP https://t.co/gRKbnJeJe3

— Salon (@Salon) September 4, 2018

Politico

One tweet by @Redistrict prompted me to dive deep on the demographics of the House — and how they're changing. https://t.co/FGwEhAQzPj

— Philip Bump (@pbump) September 5, 2018

The backdrop is that in a state Trump won by 19, the poll puts his net approval now at only +2. He's -6 among college + whites….even in Indiana & Donnelly leads among them, while staying w/in range among non-college whites. The white-collar recoil from Trump isn't just coastal https://t.co/eNkV6fqCoN

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) September 5, 2018

Tonight, we will launch the first of nearly 100 live NYT Upshot/Siena polls of the fight for Congress.
For the first time, we'll publish the results live in real time, respondent by respondent.
We start this evening in CA-48, KY-6, IL-6, MN-8, IL-12https://t.co/R4EbBmvGM9

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 6, 2018

GEORGIA
Governor:
Brian Kemp (R) 45%
Stacey Abrams (D) 45%
Ted Metz (L) 2%
(Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV Poll, LV, 8/26 – 9/4/18)

— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) September 6, 2018

Trump's approval drops looks real to me… Got a number of high quality polls that have Trump's approval rating in the 30s… If that is correct and holds, we may be looking at more like a 40+ seat gain for the Dems come November… https://t.co/RqrrPAGVsa

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 5, 2018

Underrated: How rarely incumbents lose when their party is having a good year overall.

In our Senate database, there are 5 years I'd consider wave elections (94, 2010 and 14 for R's; 2006 and 08 for D's). How did incumbents from the waving parties do? Undefeated. 54 for 54.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 7, 2018

Eight questions for the midterms

Among the many indispensable insights from @danbalz here: in ABC/WP polling Trump's approval w/college+ white women has skidded from 40% @ the 100 day mark to 23% now. But w/non-col white women he was 51% then, 49% now. Why suburbs are easier for Dems. https://t.co/oyCwLedupK

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) September 3, 2018

Trump lies about the Lester Holt interview

Now it’s inconvenient that Trump told Holt he fired Comey over Russia so he just lies and says the tape was altered. Trump has provided no proof…because there isn’t any. Sad!

As a former prosecutor, I know that when defendants make incriminating admissions on tape, they often argue the tape was fudged. They invariably lose because people trust their eyes & ears. The Lester Holt interview with @POTUS has been online since May 2017. Watch it. https://t.co/o2zJdXUCBt

— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) August 30, 2018

Non-rhetorical question: has anyone at the White House offered any explanation for Trump's claim that his Lester Holt interview was altered?

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) September 3, 2018

Here it comes, Trump suggesting to his followers anything negative toward him “may have been altered”. Fake audio, fake video will soon be a cover for getting away with anything. https://t.co/2FzXkKBDNS

— Clint Watts (@selectedwisdom) August 30, 2018

Trump is lying about Lester Holt. The entire unedited interview was posted online. And Trump is likely lying about it because he now understands that he put himself in legal danger by admitting, on camera, that he fired Comey *because* he was investigating Trump’s campaign. https://t.co/sLzEUMgmF5

— Brian Klaas (@brianklaas) August 30, 2018

Another day, another groundbreaking black man to malign. Today it’s Lester Holt’s turn… Trump accuses him of “fudging” the Russia interview… So now, in addition to wiretaps and birth certificates, black men have the power to put words in people’s mouths? 🤭 #ThursdayThoughts

— Cyrus McQueen (@CyrusMMcQueen) August 30, 2018

Nearly 16 months after Trump confessed to Lester Holt that he’d fired Comey over “the Russia thing,” he suddenly claims that NBC had “fudged” the tape of Holt’s national interview❗️This obvious lie is itself a confession that Trump now realizes the import of what he admitted. https://t.co/Hd3xtfHeOp

— Laurence Tribe (@tribelaw) August 30, 2018

FWIW, the entire Lester Holt interview has been posted to NBC's website ever since May 2017. If there's something exculpatory in it, Trump might want to point it out.https://t.co/y9qoQsynoq

— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) August 30, 2018

Lewis Hine’s photos exposed child labor

The searing photos that helped end child labor in America https://t.co/mawCdQDruN

— Washington Post (@washingtonpost) September 3, 2018

podcast

Library of Congress collection

National Archives

Yet another Trump bigot

This is at least the 6th Trump official exposed this year for making anti-Muslim and/or neo-Nazi comments. At some point bigotry starts to look like a job qualification https://t.co/KBPEepAOeO

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) September 1, 2018

Manufacturing employment is still low

Overall employment in manufacturing in the U.S. is still at its lowest level since before the U.S. entered World War II. https://t.co/h9j3S6zyuX pic.twitter.com/zdCgYQc8XV

— Pew Research Fact Tank (@FactTank) September 2, 2018

Trump’s favorite poll – he still lies about it

Rasmussen leans Republican

.@Rasmussen_Poll just came out at 48% approval rate despite the constant and intense Fake News. Higher than Election Day and higher than President Obama. Rasmussen was one of the most accurate Election Day polls!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 1, 2018

Rasmussen is by far the most Republican-leaning regular pollster, but even in Rasmussen, Trump's numbers aren't "higher than President Obama."

On the same date in 2010, Obama had the same Rasmussen approval, 48%. When Obama left office, he was at 62% in Rasmussen. pic.twitter.com/0Yyp8W95bV

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) September 2, 2018

The American South will be most affected by climate change

I think Trump’s southern supporters will find out climate change is not a hoax.

I won’t be around for it but I think it will be great if Mar-a-lago is underwater!

The American South will bear the worst of climate change's costs, Robinson Meyer reports: https://t.co/dh3yM0JsKX pic.twitter.com/qCbHc2uVlv

— The Atlantic (@TheAtlantic) September 2, 2018

Another new poll

More bad news for Republicans.

We’ll see what happens. I guess the Russians will have to increase their interference which Trump won’t stop.

Blue Wave 🌊Building?
"Last month, the IBD/TIPP poll showed registered voters split at 45%-45% on whether Congress should be controlled by #Republicans or #Democrats.
current poll shows Dems w/an 11-pt advantage."

50% prefer Dem-control vs 39% for #GOP.https://t.co/E7y6PQYKzU

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) September 3, 2018