updated 11/2/18
"With Trump in the White House and voters focused on the health policy details, Democrats are running for something popular and against something unpopular," argues @AnnieLowrey: https://t.co/SdlbgNR8mO
— The Atlantic (@TheAtlantic) November 2, 2018
Our Congressional model makes a fairly simple forecast of national turnout based on the number of voters who say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual. That forecast is now pointing toward 101m votes cast for the House, up from 78m in 2014. Still could be too low.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2018
Huge (!) final day of early voting with around 115,000 Marylanders casting ballots in the general election. About 665,000 Marylanders voted this year during early voting — a 116% increase from 2014 when 307,646 people voted early. Election Day is Tuesday. https://t.co/cIJYM5caXa
— Luke Broadwater (@lukebroadwater) November 2, 2018
This is a unique election in which there will be big practical consequences if polls are off by even a relatively modest amount in *either* direction. Although a House-Senate split is the most likely outcome, there's still a 35-40% chance that one party wins both chambers.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 22, 2018
If I had to point to an area where the conventional wisdom is wrongest this year, it's in underestimating how wide the range of outcomes is in the House. Maybe 30-40 D pickups is the most likely range, but it doesn't take much to send us to 19 (R's keep House), or, say, 57.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2018
Wisconsin GOP SEN candidate Leah Vukmir has a whole release about Tammy Baldwin campaigning with "Pocahontas" pic.twitter.com/eGTFUyTWOe
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) November 2, 2018
The most puzzling thing for me in this election (and the reason the scenario of Rs barely keeping/just barely losing the House keeps nagging at me) is this: the overall atmosphere isn't that atrocious for Republicans, and a lot of "big picture" signifiers of waves aren't here. 1/
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) November 2, 2018
When I go district-by-district, I keep coming back to a place where the House isn't a coin flip as @SeanTrende suggests it might be, but we're probably not at a midpoint of Dems +38 as @FiveThirtyEight's model suggests either. https://t.co/gOdeGyK7xL
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2018
Look at all that green. Health care is the dominant issue in political ads this year. https://t.co/vBDfXzTwPD @pogkas @DavidIngold pic.twitter.com/9gmb9lCQlY
— Margot Sanger-Katz (@sangerkatz) November 2, 2018
If I had to point to an area where the conventional wisdom is wrongest this year, it's in underestimating how wide the range of outcomes is in the House. Maybe 30-40 D pickups is the most likely range, but it doesn't take much to send us to 19 (R's keep House), or, say, 57.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2018
If I had a few more polls, I think this would make the list (along with SC-1). The undecided voters in our first poll here were very Democratic friendly, too https://t.co/Kyckxz2x7f
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 2, 2018
GOP’s final midterm pitch: Dear white people — be very, very afraid https://t.co/BArw7bpg5g by @AmandaMarcotte
— (((DeanObeidallah))) (@DeanObeidallah) November 2, 2018
The battle in Florida between Ron DeSantis and Andrew Gillum is one of the tightest and most high-profile gubernatorial races of 2018. It’s also the ugliest. https://t.co/Vv5me0D65D pic.twitter.com/eMYH5xTqkl
— The New Republic (@newrepublic) November 2, 2018
"Trump’s closing emphasis on culture may represent a kind of triage for the GOP that effectively concedes large suburban losses in the House, but tries to protect more rural & blue-collar districts, as well as GOP Senate candidates in states also fitting the latter description." https://t.co/L2DnEwM8to
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) November 1, 2018
Sad! 