2018 elections update – 10/15/18

This is the problem with the generic ballot – it’s like the national popular vote. The polls that matter are the ones for each district.

Democrats have a 53-42 percent edge in the generic ballot for the House. But inside the 66 districts that are tossups, or only leaning, that lead evaporates into a 46-47 D v. R race. https://t.co/B2VelNrN5Z

— Rick Klein (@rickklein) October 15, 2018

What Democrats in Congress will do if they're in power after the midterms https://t.co/golOzN0iiC pic.twitter.com/9uCAI9y8NH

— CNN (@CNN) October 15, 2018

PEW RESEARCH: Trump approval rating – heading into midterms –

Approve 38
Disapprove 61

net approval -23

(2nd biggest gap since taking office)https://t.co/qczEpIg7mq

— Amy Siskind (@Amy_Siskind) October 15, 2018

This trend is clearer now. Generic ballot polls conducted since Kavanaugh was confirmed have not been good for Republicans. All a bit weird because they had a good week of Senate polls and an OK-ish week of House district polls. pic.twitter.com/VWALt1YriO

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 14, 2018

We're now at another point of near-symmetry. There's roughly a:
—1 in 5 chance that Democrats win both Senate and House
—3 in 5 chance that the GOP keeps the Senate but Democrats win the House
—1 in 5 chance that the GOP keeps both chambers https://t.co/yS4hV75b61

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2018

In other news, the award for least plausible internal poll of the election cycle goes to … Mark Callahan, the Republican candidate in OR-5, who released a poll showing himself up 23 points (!) in a race that Cook/Sabato/Gonzales all rate as "Safe D". https://t.co/n1DjJYZkUj pic.twitter.com/hUqGbRS9UH

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2018

As a heads up, 3Q fundraising numbers are going to start to populate our model over the next few days. In a few races, the numbers are already in. "Fundamentals" forecasts may change slightly as a result. https://t.co/VPH1CMw8Ok

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2018

There's no clear relationship between midterm losses and what happens in the next presidential election

Sometimes it's 2006 and there are two rough elections in a row
Sometimes it's 2010 and a win comes before a loss
The pattern just isn't strong https://t.co/7dzH6heerv pic.twitter.com/IVwUSew2ix

— David Byler (@databyler) October 15, 2018

A group led by Steve Bannon is spending $3 million on digital ads ahead of the midterm elections https://t.co/0TCGs7x2E0 pic.twitter.com/3mEoUcCMDa

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) October 15, 2018

Add in the gubernatorial race and a Senate contest—incumbent Democrats are heavily favored in both—and the state stands as an epicenter of these midterms https://t.co/oO9krxHBf9 pic.twitter.com/2aNmhgEPS8

— POLITICO (@politico) October 15, 2018

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1051939147542392832

With the November midterm elections fast approaching, it is becoming increasingly clear that both Washington and statehouses around the country could be in for major changes.

Take a look at 7 key races that tell the story of the 2018 midterms: https://t.co/aUkfYWJhvh pic.twitter.com/FPx7huJMyw

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) October 15, 2018

I talked to progressive groups in Tennessee after Senate candidate Phil Bredesen said he supported Kavanaugh for SCOTUS, and they are…not happy: https://t.co/SnyzR5yIwY

— Becca (@kbeccaandrews) October 15, 2018

Democrats see growing lead in House race even as Trump approval rating rises. https://t.co/7IML2CMOQz pic.twitter.com/kRoqLNCqSW

— Slate (@Slate) October 15, 2018

Wow…#CA48 @DanaRohrabacher raised only $395K in Q3 and now has $506K COH (with $167K in debt)

— Aaron Booth (@ActorAaronBooth) October 15, 2018

The Republicans had managed to keep the Louie Gohmerts in the lower house of Congress. No more. https://t.co/qvFtujU2xG

— Esquire (@esquire) October 15, 2018

Good news for the GOP: Many of the most pro-Democrat voters are least certain to vote (@pbump) https://t.co/cOqz7vq4kY

— OpinionToday.com (@OpinionToday) October 15, 2018

When we polled this district in September, we found the Democratic candidate, Joe Radinovich, up by one point. Now, we have the Republican, Pete Stauber, up by 15. What happened? https://t.co/IOQTx1vJa0

— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) October 15, 2018

Trump believes denials from anyone who supports him

Trump’s fondness for dictators enables them to kill people because they know he won’t do anything about it. Trump will make excuses for the Saudis no matter what the truth turns out to be.

Trump on

Putin: He didn't do it
Porter: He didn't do it
Moore: He didn't do it
Kavanaugh: He didn't do it
MBS: He didn't do it

Central Park Five, exonerated by DNA evidence and a confession: They definitely did it and deserve to be executed

— Adam Serwer 🍝 (@AdamSerwer) October 15, 2018

Today Trump appeared impressed by the Saudi King's "strong" denial of any knowledge of the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi. As @paulwaldman1 notes, this is a pattern with Trump: https://t.co/oQmb110i67

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) October 15, 2018

Trump's line about the strength of the Saudi king's denial is very reminiscent of how he would repeat Putin's claims about Russia's election interference https://t.co/nWsHvpLy34

— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) October 15, 2018

Donald Trump's HUGE 'denial' double standardhttps://t.co/f6QMwJ2MRK pic.twitter.com/EmI3bUH5gy

— Chris Cillizza (@CillizzaCNN) October 15, 2018

King Salman denies it.

Vladimir Putin denies it.

Roy Moore denies it.

Brett Kavanaugh denies it.

In the President’s world, the truth doesn’t matter. Admission is weakness. Denial is everything. The more vehement the better. But don’t ask Trump.

He denies it. https://t.co/bBjYduvggI

— Adam Schiff (@RepAdamSchiff) October 15, 2018

President Trump touts Saudi King's denial in journalist's disappearance https://t.co/IQwqycomhr pic.twitter.com/jRj2uMWiRi

— CNN (@CNN) October 15, 2018

Mnuchin trip comes as Trump wants to move forward with Saudi arms deal, opposed by members of both parties, and as he floated the Saudi denial – despite intel that led senators to conclude Saudi was behind apparent murder https://t.co/PNngUBPCsN

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) October 15, 2018

The deficit is up to $779 billion

Trump/Congressional Republicans will blame social programs for the increase instead of their massive tax cuts. They will try to reduce spending on programs like Social Security and Medicare. It would be better to eliminate many of the tax cuts that only benefitted rich people.

It's official: The US deficit hit $779 billion in Trump's 2nd year, the highest since 2012 (in dollar or % of GDP terms)

Deficit in FY 2017: $665 bn
2016: $585 bn
2015: $439 bn
2014: $485 bn
2013: $680 bn
2012: $1.1 trillion
2011: $1.3 trillionhttps://t.co/Yxo6xqsF84 #debt

— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) October 15, 2018

The cumulative budget deficit grew in fiscal year 2018 https://t.co/lSTFvYkncm via @pgpfoundation

— Peterson Foundation (@pgpfoundation) October 15, 2018

Even on the most basic things, you can count on this administration to lie — an everyone treats it as normal https://t.co/XXELVD4Bdj pic.twitter.com/AdpqbamvDN

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 15, 2018

last October: GOP Sen Corker says "If we're adding one penny to the deficit, I’m not going to be for it. greatest threat to our nation"

he was for it

this October: Treasury Dept reports 2018 deficit of $779-B, 17% larger than 2017 and higher than any point in Obama's 2nd term

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) October 15, 2018

You may recall that many Republicans said their tax cuts would "pay for themselves" through increased growth/revenues. In the first nine months, they are not — by any measure. https://t.co/N8H8Gjr3a5

— Jim Tankersley (@jimtankersley) October 15, 2018

This is your monthly reminder that in a booming economy the deficit-to-GDP ratio should not be this high. https://t.co/etGmrZsOYJ

— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) October 15, 2018

It's unusual to see deficits rising in this manner outside of a recession pic.twitter.com/u8pikMkj66

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 15, 2018

Per the Treasury Department, revenues and spending were both lower as a share of GDP in FY 2018, but revenues fell more, making the deficit-increase worse pic.twitter.com/iIHc9vmaJY

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 15, 2018

Remember, Kudlow recently said the administration will probably try to make cuts to Medicare & Social Security next year.

Having blown a hole in the deficit with tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, Trump and Republicans will demand deep cuts. Watch your wallets. https://t.co/tLVA3HboIg

— Robert Reich (@RBReich) October 15, 2018

The big-time GOP deficit hawks who were quiet as Trump pushed the national debt past $21 trillion are an interesting side-note to this madness. https://t.co/YnZeSGKvId

— Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) October 15, 2018

4 Republican policies led to a $779 billion deficit in 2018:

– Bush Tax Cuts: $488 B
– Trump Tax Cuts: $164 B
– Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan: $127 B
– Defense increases since 9/11: $156 B

Without tax cuts for the wealthy and endless wars we would've had a $156 billion SURPLUS.

— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) October 15, 2018

Native American perspectives on Elizabeth Warren’s DNA test

Cherokee Nation Secretary of State Chuck Hoskin Jr.:

"A DNA test is useless to determine tribal citizenship. Current DNA tests do not even distinguish whether a person’s ancestors were indigenous to North or South America…" 1/

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) October 15, 2018

It’s imp to understand how Elizabeth Warren’s DNA announcement has been received by Indigenous people (not favorably) so I’m going to be retweeting some people sharing that perspective. https://t.co/4QUqmUhB6W

— Kirsten Powers (@KirstenPowers) October 15, 2018

Kellyanne Conway called Elizabeth Warren’s DNA test "junk science." Is it? https://t.co/f2j9sp67Bp

— Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 15, 2018

NEW: "A DNA test is useless to determine tribal citizenship," Cherokee Nation says in response to Sen. Elizabeth Warren's release of DNA test results. "Senator Warren is undermining tribal interests with her continued claims of tribal heritage." https://t.co/6dSaJYTp3J pic.twitter.com/JN7RSZcL6U

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) October 15, 2018

update 10/17/18:

Opinion | Kelly Hayes and Jacqueline Keeler:

Elizabeth Warren connected DNA and Native American heritage. Here's why that's destructive. https://t.co/R0lnl68QWK – @NBCnewsTHINK

— MSNBC (@MSNBC) October 17, 2018

Trump on climate change

This is pathetic He won’t believe the truth. Trump will do nothing and the whole world will suffer from his inaction and ignorance. Trump will do nothing about the UN report.

Lesley Stahl of 60 Minutes presses Trump about his climate change views. He says: "I think something’s happening. Something’s changing – and it’ll change back again. I don't think it's a hoax, I think there's probably a difference. But I don't know that it's man-made." pic.twitter.com/MAIO1gJNKY

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 14, 2018

Not that this was especially enlightening, but it's wild that this is the first time Trump has been pressed about his ludicrous beliefs about climate change. https://t.co/qhh4NULFXp

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 14, 2018

President Trump suggests climate scientists have “political agendas” during nationally televised interview. He acknowledged that the climate is changing, but said “it’ll change back.” https://t.co/z7MvoHDzOy

— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) October 15, 2018

On @60Minutes, Trump continues to reject the scientific consensus that climate change is real and exacerbated by human activity, claiming that scientists have “a very big political agenda.” (He didn’t explain or elaborate on what it is.)

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 15, 2018

10 giallo films for beginners

This is an excellent list. Many iallo films on Blu-ray and DVD are available from Blue Underground, Kino Lorber (Mario Bava films) and Arrow Video.

For everyone who’s not sure what a giallo is and at this point is too afraid to ask… may we present the 10 best giallos for beginners. https://t.co/2BkVBfn7c7

— One Perfect Shot (@OnePerfectShot) October 14, 2018

Voter fraud is extremely rare

Democrats fear voter suppression. Republicans fear vote fraud. The data show suppression is widespread; voter fraud is not. George W. Bush’s DoJ studied voter fraud & found it occurs on 0.00000013% of ballots. A recent study found 31 cases out of a billion ballots from 2000-2014.

— Brian Klaas (@brianklaas) October 14, 2018

GOP claims of voter fraud threat fuel worries about ballot access in November

Covers: I Don’t Want to Cry

“I Don’t Want to Cry” was co-written by Chuck Jackson; his recording was released in 1961. Eddie Floyd covered it on the Knock on Wood album backed by the great Stax musicians in 1967.

Chuck Jackson

Eddie Floyd

(check out the drum and horn part at 1:11

Trump tax cut has reduced revenues

The Trump tax cut — mainly for corporations and the wealthy — has cut revenues by >1% of GDP. That's significantly more than the cost of the Affordable Care Act, which has insured 20 million people 2/ pic.twitter.com/yGYy2ypi5F

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 14, 2018

The shrinking EPA

EPA smaller in staff than the 1980's w/ many more responsibilities https://t.co/6kU9NrOjjc via @YaleE360

— Knowledge & Community (@KnowledgeCommu2) October 5, 2018

The exodus at ⁦@EPA⁩: During the first 18 months under Trump, records show, nearly 1,600 workers left EPA, while fewer than 400 were hired. The agency’s workforce has fallen to levels not seen since Reagan. w/⁦@eilperin⁩ ⁦@abtran⁩ https://t.co/iljJlzgB2j

— Brady Dennis (@brady_dennis) September 8, 2018

Nearly half the political appointees hired at EPA under Trump have industry ties. Of the 60+ EPA hires tracked by the AP, about 1/3 worked as registered lobbyists & lawyers for chemical manufacturers, fossil fuel producers or other EPA-regulated companies. https://t.co/rypikAkZ8D

— Citizens for Ethics (@CREWcrew) June 2, 2018