Trump could win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote again in 2020

This is a very real possibility. I don’t care about national popular vote polls as much as polls in swing states that will determine the election.

Analysis: Hillary Clinton got 2.9M more votes than Donald Trump in the 2016 election, but Trump comfortably prevailed in the Electoral College.

It's possible in 2020 that he could win 5M fewer votes than his opponent — and still win a second term. https://t.co/4qqY0wjr4d
— NBC News (@NBCNews) July 19, 2019

i still think folks are underestimating the danger of this outcome and the real threat it poses to american democracy. https://t.co/RUxWCVfMks
— b-boy bouiebaisse (@jbouie) July 19, 2019

A world where Dems win their 2016 states plus MI and PA is one where they have 268 EVs. They either need to win a third red state OR win both Maine’s 2nd District (the part of the state that isn’t the SE coast) and Nebraska’s 2nd District (Omaha and part of its suburbs). https://t.co/xt4Q12YJmL
— Justin Slaughter (@JBSDC) July 19, 2019

And not incidentally on that front how country will react if Trump or future Republican nominee wins EC but loses popular vote by 6 or 7 million votes, not 2 or so. How far can that rubber band stretch without consequence? https://t.co/HvxH9uvhlP
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) July 16, 2019

I think DEM would really be shooting themselves in the foot if they allowed CA to keep Trump off the ballot due to tax returns. If Trump won the EC and lost the popular vote just like that time, it would be easier for the GOP to use the state as a scapegoat for justifying the EC.
— Election Maps Co. (@ElectionMapsCo) July 19, 2019

I'd probably lean no. I certainly think Trump could win an election where he loses the popular vote by 3 points or even slightly more. That's basically what he did in 2016. (He won WI, the tipping-point state, with ~1 point to spare.) But I'm skeptical that he'd be the favorite. https://t.co/wh83h4sAUy
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 20, 2019

Translation: the 2020 Dem nominee might need to beat Trump by at least ~4% in the popular vote to defeat him in the Electoral College. https://t.co/Lxkx4Tzrlo
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 20, 2019

It’s amazing how many defenses of the Electoral College are based on plainly misdescribing how it works.

The senate over-represents the low-density states. The EC just over-represents whichever states happen to be close in any given year. https://t.co/UEAvS8s9SN
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) July 20, 2019

in 2016, Trump won 306 EVs to HRC’s 232

Morning Consult polling shows Trump w/net negative job approval in 8 states he won, totalling 107 EVs

if Trump loses just the 4 states where his net disapproval is 9 points or more (PA/MI/WI/IA), Dem would win w/284 EVs https://t.co/bf0auRPUbU
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) July 20, 2019

Trump’s history of racism

a good summary

Trump's History of Racism:
1. Housing discrimination
2. Central Park 5
3. Casino workers discrimination
3. Birtherism
4. Mexicans are rapists
5. Ban on Muslims
6. "Very fine people" in Charlottesville
7. Black athletes "SOBs"
8. Black countries "shitholes"
9. "Send Her Back"
— Keith Boykin (@keithboykin) July 18, 2019

"Racist" tweets? News media grapple with how to label Trump’s latest attacks https://t.co/csjLIyBVlo
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 15, 2019

I call them racist

Over decades, from proposing a "blacks" versus "whites" version of The Apprentice to claiming anti-Semitism when the Palm Beach zoning board tried to block him from making Mar-a-Lago a club, Trump has seen advantages in stoking race. Our story > https://t.co/szv0bhHq2j
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) July 20, 2019

Racists liked Trump’s racist tweets

White supremacists were very supportive of Trump’s racist tweets.

Hate Watch: White supremacists celebrate Trump's racist tweets @sarasidnerCNN reports https://t.co/uxicXffDHN pic.twitter.com/PW0qfXt0Yq
— The Lead CNN (@TheLeadCNN) July 16, 2019

Blue states subsidize red states

Blue states were already subsidizing red states before Trump’s vindictive tax cuts that punished states that didn’t vote for him. Now NY, NJ, and CT are suing IRS for blocking a workaround to the $10,000 limit on state/local tax deductions.

The tax cuts could also further penalize blue states by causing people to move from them.

NJ, NY, and CT sued @stevenmnuchin1 and the IRS this morning over a new rule blocking a workaround to the $10,000 cap on SALT deductions. @CNBC got the first interview with NJ's @GovMurphy, he told us the new IRS rule is "dead wrong." pic.twitter.com/yPaMGnDTpb
— Power Lunch (@PowerLunch) July 17, 2019

"In 2017, Kentucky received $40 billion more from the federal government than it paid in taxes. That’s about one-fifth of the state’s G.D.P.; if Kentucky were a country, we’d say that it was receiving foreign aid on an almost inconceivable scale."https://t.co/EUULmuRu1E
— Alec MacGillis (@AlecMacGillis) July 2, 2019

Do you think it's wrong for the rich to help subsidize the poor? Someone tell Mitch McConnell's constituents in Kentucky, who effectively receive huge aid from rich blue states https://t.co/6ZsbxpJL5m
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) July 1, 2019

Next time someone from one of these green states tries to claim immigrants don’t pay taxes, tell them that the biggest beneficiaries of government money are citizens of Kentucky and other states where Fox News is popular. Tell them to thank a New Yorker for their handouts. https://t.co/NHBS9OVUFk
— Walter Shaub (@waltshaub) June 30, 2019

These two states had the biggest economic gains from Americans’ migrations, according to a @Bloomberg analysis of state-to-state moves… https://t.co/BQaClU1Wir
— PPG (@ppg_perry) May 31, 2019

Migration’s Biggest Loser Is Connecticut as Florida Profits – Bloomberg ⁦@rolandlemar⁩ https://t.co/DVRHTXSSU5
— MickTheQuickFan (@JMRivers17) May 24, 2019

Because homeless people in red states move to blue states. Maybe red states should start picking up some of the burden.https://t.co/ZbNmJfgMGD
— Tyson White (@TysonJWhite) June 1, 2019

Not only that, the liberal-leaning people who may be fleeing blue New York because of SALT and moving to purple states won’t henceforth be helping Republicans win the Electoral College. Don’t understand why people haven’t thought about this. https://t.co/UvFk7knQ14
— George Conway (@gtconway3d) April 29, 2019

For every $1 in taxes states send to the federal gov't, here's how much they get back:

Kentucky $2.82
New Mexico $2.48
West Va $2.35
Virginia $2.28
Miss. $2.22
Alabama $2.18
Alaska $2.16https://t.co/WaHzOK0Yg9 via @andrewvandam pic.twitter.com/ttyF7SBQ0B
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) July 10, 2023

Trump’s endless lies

He propagated conspiracy nonsense about caravans. He took credit for Obama energy permits. He used a wildly inaccurate stat about migrants while saying he was making sure to be accurate. And more.

My fact check of Trump’s 13 false claims at Cabinet today: https://t.co/SBesQFYneE
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) July 16, 2019

Surprise! More lies from the White House! Traitortot was not under the protection of the U.S. Secret Service when he had his secret meeting with the Russian nationals at Trump Tower.#Traitortot https://t.co/9jb2JEcrIS
— Stone 🥶 (@stonecold2050) July 16, 2019

Trump’s lie that @IlhanMN “loves al Qaeda” is just more evidence of his racism.
— Kurt Eichenwald (@kurteichenwald) July 16, 2019

Last month, @realdonaldtrump claimed that Mexico had agreed to immediately begin buying large quantities of agricultural products from American farmers. That was a lie. https://t.co/GitNtw6m9A
— Sen. Tammy Baldwin (@SenatorBaldwin) July 12, 2019

The AP didn't call Wisconsin for Trump until 2:30 a.m. the morning after Election Day. https://t.co/nnRf3xr5gK
— Molly Beck (@MollyBeck) July 12, 2019

Trump lost 300,000 followers in Twitter’s 2018 purge of fake accounts. (Obama lost 2 million, the Dalai Lama 375,000.) Trump has turned this into a conspiracy about Twitter impeding real people from following him. You click a button to follow him. https://t.co/Swwm4AIEhH
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) July 12, 2019

What Trump said Monday is weirdly and totally dishonest coming from a president who has since day one questioned the science behind climate change, and has relentlessly slashed away environmental regulations.https://t.co/aKhESaKoZG
— Chris Matthews (@HardballChris) July 10, 2019

>@realDonaldTrump touted new car plants in the U.S. "We hadn’t had a plant built in years — in decades." He didn't mention the closing list. And that one of the new plants was unveiled in 2015. Mostly False: https://t.co/pTLwWvnQ4J pic.twitter.com/rAXCyXoQc2
— PolitiFact (@PolitiFact) July 10, 2019

“I've fact-checked every word Trump has uttered since his inauguration. I can tell you that if this President relays an anecdote in which he has someone referring to him as ‘sir,’ then some major component of the anecdote is very likely to be wrong.” https://t.co/BdGE6BBcO4
— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) July 16, 2019

Update: He said "$20 trillion" yesterday. (Experts tell me even "$10 trillion" is ridiculous.) https://t.co/cAWH6ZCcg0
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) July 17, 2019

Trump’s accusation is that Rep. Omar sympathizes with al-Qaeda terrorists.

We found no evidence for that claim. https://t.co/5qdqomiHiH
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 17, 2019

Congresswoman Omar has denied this and other claims about her as "disgusting lies." But Trump was willing to dive right in.https://t.co/XcTftAN0fR https://t.co/rJqpMpvtam
— Jim Acosta (@Acosta) July 17, 2019

New: Contradciting Trump, ICE official tells CNN “no mass arrests” so far. “This notion that we were going to do this massive sweep – to be honest, there have been limited results so far," the official said. "There have been no mass arrests.” – @CNNValencia reporting
— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) July 16, 2019

Blobfest 2019

I went to Blobfest for the fourth time on July 13, 2019. I saw a double bill of The Blob and Forbidden Planet. The audience is like the people who attended The Rocky Horror Picture Show events. They really know the movie and clap along with the rhythm of the theme song. For the first time that I have seen, the audience laughed at the end when the blob is taken to the Arctic because it is frozen. We know that it is thawing because of global warming.

I also posted YouTube videos I found about this year’s Blobfest.

https://youtu.be/2tIrMoGnANU

It’s great to see the movie in the theater that is in the movie – see this clip from The Blob. There is now a plaque near the windows of the projection booth.

Reading Fightin Phils

I attended the Reading Fightin Phils game on July 12, 2019. They have been the Phillies AA affiliate since 1967 and many well-known Phillies have played there. The slide show includes pictures of Mike Schmidt and Greg Luzinski when they played for Reading.

The stadium has more food options than most of the minor league parks I have been to.

Trump should shut up about anti-Semitism

Trump has a lot of nerve calling anyone else anti-Semitic. As a Jew, I will never forgive him for his “very fine people” remarks about neo-Nazis at Charlottesville. Trump is anti-Semitic and needs to shut up. His bigotry inspired the attacks on the synagogues in Pittsburgh and California where people were killed.

I have been pretty polite about this and so have other American Jews. But you really have to leave us out of your racist talking points. You are not helping us, you are not helping society, you are not helping Israel. Your racism is your thing and we are not your shield.
— Brian Schatz (@brianschatz) July 15, 2019

You know who I have sympathy for today? The American Jewish community.
White Nationalists, most of whom are Anti-Semites, are trying to use faux-concern for Israel to justify MORE BIGOTRY, and there's just barely a large enough minority of the Jewish community willing to help.
— Elie Mystal (@ElieNYC) July 16, 2019

#AntiSemitism is on the rise.@realDonaldTrump using Israel to defend his blatant racism only hurts the Jewish community. He doesn't speak for any of us.

We call on ALL leaders across the political spectrum to condemn these racist, xenophobic tweets & using Jews as a shield.
— Jonathan Greenblatt (@JGreenblattADL) July 15, 2019

Justifying a president’s racist tirade by using false charges of anti-Semitism is beneath the Senate.
— Ron Wyden (@RonWyden) July 15, 2019

Man who drew a cartoon the @ADL calls “blatantly anti-Semitic” says he was invited to the White House for a social media summit https://t.co/Fzckv4rJbD https://t.co/nmH1zyCV7C pic.twitter.com/hvz4BpLNVt
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) July 6, 2019

Great piece by @chick_in_kiev on the white supremacist trash of the GOP exploiting Jewish fears, weaponizing Jewish trauma, and invoking phantom Jewish props to deflect from their murderous racism and antisemitism.https://t.co/SRZ15hiSXl pic.twitter.com/qn1XMbXBoJ
— Eli Valley (@elivalley) July 17, 2019

Republican tax policy failed in Kansas

This should serve as a lesson for the whole country. Republican tax cuts do not improve the economy, they just increase the deficit.

Kansas has now tested GOP tax orthodoxy twice. First it slashed taxes, promising an economic miracle; all it got was a huge deficit. Then it revoked the tax cuts, which the right says should have been a disaster; instead, the budget is back in surplus 1/ https://t.co/C0aLj6LavA
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) July 11, 2019

Kansas raises taxes and its economy booms–the exact opposite of what Art Laffer, Steve Moore and other right-wing economists predicted. https://t.co/PdQRGzbDWN
— Bruce Bartlett (@BruceBartlett) July 10, 2019

2020 Census update 7/11/19

Here’s a take on the census saga that zeros in well on the silver lining but that may be premature in celebrating the outcome:

Too many immigrants have been spooked into the shadows. And sinister hints about future threats were dropped by henchman Barr.https://t.co/prDl6ZF7xZ
— Laurence Tribe (@tribelaw) July 12, 2019

I learned a lot about this subject from @Dan_F_Jacobson, who represented the plaintiffs in the census case, who explained to me how the citizenship question could gain electoral votes and seats for the GOP. Check out our interview on my #OnTopic podcast: https://t.co/gtyKdNZSw9 https://t.co/IPybSLXnI1
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) July 11, 2019

Defying the Supreme Court’s directive would open a seal that no one should want to see broken. It betrays the admin’s belief that it cannot satisfy the Court’s requests and threatens the legitimacy of the census. More importantly, it would be a legitimate constitutional crisis. https://t.co/3HdgNWMhk7
— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) July 11, 2019

Why Trump probably won't be able to add the citizenship question to the census via executive action https://t.co/LdBnzd3Y98 pic.twitter.com/56WtUkIRBz
— Michael Intoccia (@MichaelIntocci) July 11, 2019

The Supreme Court could have and should have taken a far stronger posture than it did, ruling not that the citizenship question was administratively imperfect, but that it was unconstitutional and un-American. https://t.co/Cu5Uc4uTUz
— Brennan Center (@BrennanCenter) July 11, 2019

This is the latest example of how Donald Trump isn’t the only threat to this country. His presidency wouldn’t be possible without the lies spread by the propagandists in right-wing media—and those who believe them.

https://t.co/JNzQcf50UL
— John Stoehr's Editorial Board (@johnastoehr) July 11, 2019

So proud to be a colleague go ⁦@JoshuaMatz8⁩ at ⁦@KaplanHecker⁩ and a friend of ⁦@LeahLitman⁩. https://t.co/eu7tuC4nr6
— Robbie Kaplan (@kaplanrobbie) July 12, 2019