Category: 2020 election

Demographic shifts and their impact on 2020

This analysis discusses how demographic shifts could affect the 2020 election. It runs through several plausible scenarios.  The column states:

“A new bipartisan report runs through some of the scenarios that would lead to Trump’s reelection or a win for Democrats. The States of Change report, authored by a long list of groups including the Center for American Progress and the Bipartisan Policy Center, suggests there is a long-term structural advantage for the Democratic Party but a much more complicated short-term picture.”

 

Farmers are concerned about tariffs

I don’t feel sorry for anyone who voted for Trump who is hurt by his policies.  He’s doing what he said he would do during the campaign.  Trump voters have forced all of us to put up with an incompetent, lying bigot.

This is an excellent article in the New York Times.  The writer got out of New York and spoke with Midwestern farmers about their concerns and the potential impact on future elections.

“What’s wrong with the Democratic Party and how do we fix it?”

Crooked.com is looking for answers to those questions.

I sent them this in an email:

Here are my thoughts which are too long to leave on a voice message

  • Focus on issues

Anti-Trump is not a winning message.  We saw that in 2016.  People knew he wasn’t qualified but voted for him anyway.  Why?  Because of issues such as abortion.

I’m sure you have polls that show what voters are interested in such as health care, jobs, gun safety, income inequality, bigotry, the environment, etc.  Focus on what voters are interested in.  Don’t focus on Russia and Stormy Daniels.  That doesn’t affect everyday living.

  • Have a central online location for donations and information about issues

I’m tired of getting email, paper mail and requests for contributions from so many overlapping groups.  I disregard a lot of it because I get so much.  I suggest having a central clearing house similar to the Combined Federal Campaign for federal employee charitable donations.  Within the one site, you could designate which component(s) you want to send funds to.  ActBlue seems like a start.

  • Try to use TV appearances to focus on issues.

Most times when I see Democrats on TV, they are being asked about what they think of the day’s Trump tweets or action.  They need to respond to that but that also need to show how Democratic positions would be different than cutting health care and taxes for the wealthy.

  • Trump is already running for 2020. Democrats deserve equal time.

When he gives a speech that is part or all an election speech (which is most of them), Democrats should ask for equal time from TV networks comparable to the time they showed Trump focusing on politics rather than presidential stuff.  He has a huge head start in getting his message out.  Democrats should designate a few people to give the responses.  (I’m thinking of something like shorter versions of the response to the State of the Union address.)  Trump is brilliant at sucking up all of the TV time – Democrats need to fight this.

  • Do not focus on impeachment (as things stand now).

I think that will only motivate the Republicans and it will fail in the long run.   Concentrate on supporting the Mueller investigation and we’ll see how it plays out.

  • Let’s make the elections fair.

Do focus on getting out the vote, fighting voter suppression and fighting gerrymandering.

  • Be wary of how Republicans may respond if they lose the House of Representatives.

Trump is already talking about voter fraud, especially in CA.  Remember that he said the election was rigged and only committed to accepting the results if he won.  The Republicans will never voluntarily accept the new map in PA.  Make sure to point out that it was a victory for fairness, not for Democrats.

This is the scenario that concerns me:

Imagine if the Democrats win the House by 2 or 3 and  pick up 4 or 5 seats in PA and/or CA.  Do you really think Trump and his conspiracy theory-supporting followers will accept the results?  Remember, many of these people believe in things like Pizzagate, the birther movement, and that mass shootings didn’t happen.  Do you think it would be hard to convince them that there was voter fraud.

Thanks for letting me rant.

update:  This looks like a good start.

 

Demographic shifts and their impact on future presidential elections

This article discusses a recent study on projected demographic shifts and their impact on future elections.  The article notes “One conclusion is that the country should be braced for repeats of what has happened twice in the past five presidential campaigns — a popular vote outcome different from the electoral college result. ”

I am in favor of abolishing the electoral college for exactly this reason.  The person with the most votes should be the winner!

Taxpayers should not have to pay for Trump’s political speeches

Trump rarely gives a speech that is not at least partially a campaign speech.  Taxpayers should not have to pay the costs for the speech if he is incapable of sticking to presidential business.

This is a summary of his “infrastructure” speech on March 29th.  He told lies, bashed “fake news”, Hillary Clinton and former President Obama, and even talked about the ratings for “Roseanne”.  I don’t want to pay for this!  He should do this with his own money.

The top cable networks eventually cut away from the speech and they should have.

Trump took advantage of the networks in 2016 and he is still doing it.  Trump is already running for reelection and Democrats should get equal time when he gives a political speech.  Sad!

What happens to the campaign funds if Trump drops out?

I wondered if Trump is raising money for 2020 so he can drop out and keep the cash.  I wouldn’t put it past him.

If he follows the law, he can’t do that.  Here’s what candidates can do with unspent funds.

Notice that one of the permitted uses is donating it to charity.  Trump could donate it to the Trump Foundation , if it still exists, or a similar charity and then put it to personal use.  I know that sounds cynical but look how he misspent Trump foundation money.

Sad!

Trump 2020 and TV coverage

Trump is already running for reelection in 2020.  He has filed paperwork, appointed a campaign manager, created a slogan and started fundraising.

I did not watch his speech in Pennsylvania on Saturday but I have read a lot about it and seen clips.  I would say it was mostly a 2020 campaign speech with the rest being a presidential speech (like when he talked about policy on drug dealers).  Accordingly, the Democrats should get equal time from the TV networks equivalent to the amount of time the speech was a reelection speech.  Otherwise, it is very unfair to the Democrats.

Trump is an expert at manipulating the TV networks to get more coverage.  He did this during the primary and general election and he’s doing it now.  Remember how the networks showed his speech in Florida with the Trump water and steaks?

Remember when he opened his hotel in Washington and added a few words at the end that admitted that Obama was born in the US?

Sad!